Hurricane Alex. 40 Miles NNE of La Pesca. 100 MPH/948MB

[Hardcoreweather]

I am really not sure if I am going to intercept this one. Due to it's size it's going to struggle to get stronger than a Cat 1

[Bluefalcon]

Looks like ball park 310 to 320 NW movement to me, but it'd be easier to be sure if an eye appeared.

Looking at the last two center fixes from Recon, I would concur with that observation. Today's Recon crew is having a heck of a time penetrating the center on the 1st pass. Saw they had to loop around and go back on both center fixes.

[ticka1]

Okay Okay I get we aren't getting the landfalling hurricane with the eye going over us - but are we going to see any rain from Alex here in Houston? Hearing and reading so called "experts" say we won't see anything to we are going to see massive amounts of rain here in SE Texas?

Any idea?

[Bluefalcon]

Okay Okay I get we aren't getting the landfalling hurricane with the eye going over us - but are we going to see any rain from Alex here in Houston? Hearing and reading so called "experts" say we won't see anything to we are going to see massive amounts of rain here in SE Texas?

Any idea?

Outer rain bands are hitting the coast right now from Galveston to Corpus. I would expect rain chances to increase throughout the day. Were not talking 10-14 inch range. But given their tropical and slower moving nature; if you happen to be under one, 2-3 inches is not out of the question.

[srainhoutx]

Updated 12Z five day total QPF...

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 291431
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010

...ALEX NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH WINDS JUST BELOW
HURRICANE STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 93.1W
ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES

[srainhoutx]

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[srainhoutx]

Code: Select all

000
FONT11 KNHC 291431
PWSAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  16             
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010               
1500 UTC TUE JUN 29 2010                                            

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR.                                        

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      


I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     


      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      

VALID TIME   00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       1       4      39      NA      NA
TROP DEPRESSION  X       1       4      16      35      NA      NA
TROPICAL STORM  48      20      28      57      21      NA      NA
HURRICANE       52      79      68      22       5      NA      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       49      60      44      16       3      NA      NA
HUR CAT 2        2      16      17       4       2      NA      NA
HUR CAT 3        X       3       5       2       1      NA      NA
HUR CAT 4        X       1       1       X       X      NA      NA
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X      NA      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   65KT    75KT    80KT    50KT    25KT    NA      NA  


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

GFMX 280N 910W 34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

GFMX 280N 930W 34  4   7(11)   3(14)   1(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)

PORT ARTHUR TX 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

GALVESTON TX   34  X   5( 5)   4( 9)   2(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)

HOUSTON TX     34  X   3( 3)   4( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)

AUSTIN TX      34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

SAN ANTONIO TX 34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)

FREEPORT TX    34  X   7( 7)   6(13)   4(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)

GFMX 280N 950W 34  3  12(15)   9(24)   3(27)   1(28)   X(28)   X(28)
GFMX 280N 950W 50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

PORT O CONNOR  34  1   9(10)  11(21)   5(26)   2(28)   X(28)   X(28)
PORT O CONNOR  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

CORPUS CHRISTI 34  1   9(10)  19(29)  10(39)   3(42)   X(42)   X(42)
CORPUS CHRISTI 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
CORPUS CHRISTI 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

GFMX 270N 960W 34  4  31(35)  22(57)   4(61)   1(62)   X(62)   X(62)
GFMX 270N 960W 50  X   3( 3)  11(14)   3(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)
GFMX 270N 960W 64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

BROWNSVILLE TX 34  3  31(34)  45(79)   8(87)   1(88)   X(88)   X(88)
BROWNSVILLE TX 50  X   3( 3)  34(37)  14(51)   1(52)   X(52)   X(52)
BROWNSVILLE TX 64  X   X( X)  13(13)   9(22)   1(23)   X(23)   X(23)

GFMX 250N 960W 34 13  72(85)  11(96)   1(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
GFMX 250N 960W 50  1  44(45)  30(75)   2(77)   1(78)   X(78)   X(78)
GFMX 250N 960W 64  X  18(18)  27(45)   3(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)

LA PESCO MX    34  3   7(10)  19(29)   5(34)   3(37)   X(37)   X(37)
LA PESCO MX    50  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
LA PESCO MX    64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

TAMPICO MX     34  2   5( 7)   4(11)   2(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)

TUXPAN MX      34  2   4( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)

VERACRUZ MX    34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

MERIDA MX      34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    

[Bluefalcon]

This mornings shot of the Gulf: http://www.tceq.state.tx.us/assets/publ ... atest.jpeg

[srainhoutx]

This mornings shot of the Gulf: http://www.tceq.state.tx.us/assets/publ ... atest.jpeg

[SusieinLP]

Alex is just so big! I looked at the satellite and this storm pretty much fills up the entire GOM......


Clouds are moving in off the bay....

[Bluefalcon]

Recon is inbound to pickup 3rd center fix, should get a real good fix on direction and speed.

[srainhoutx]

Alex is just so big! I looked at the satellite and this storm pretty much fills up the entire GOM......


Clouds are moving in off the bay....

the NHC Discussion supports this as well...

THE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW THAT THE 34 KT WIND RADII HAVE EXPANDED OVER
ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST. BETWEEN THIS AND THE FASTER
FORWARD MOTION...THERE IS NOW ABOUT 12 HOURS LESS TIME TO MAKE
PREPARATIONS BEFORE THE ONSET OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE
WARNING AREA THAN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

[updraft]

Here's a pretty cool pic from G-Town Surf.com in Galveston of an outer rain band from Alex. Won't be long now before buckets of wet stuff:

Picture4.jpg

http://www.g-townsurf.com/

[biggerbyte]

Good news!!!! After my post this morning, Alex has begun to turn some. The next thing to watch is if this trend continues, he does not stall, or he does enter, then exit and begin again like some have suggested. As far now, south Texas will feel the worse effects. Folks north of there can count on some rain. How much depends on where you are.

[ticka1]

Cool to watch radar and see the spiraling bands come on shore and rotate around. Weather never ceases to amaze me. Even with Alex going in Mexico - we are close to 8 hours away and feeling the affects.

[Hardcoreweather]

Thanks for the travel info ED. I am going to sit this one out and hopefully get in on what ever that it is the models have been showing in the NE gulf in 84 hrs. Models have been showing what looks to be Bonnie for about a week now on different runs.

Here are the latest model runs for Alex and they are looking better for yall

http://i508.photobucket.com/albums/s330 ... 576155.gif

[Bluefalcon]

Recon just fixed the center. Looks a little more west than northwest from the previous fix. Speed looks to be the same. NHC will probably be adjusting the track a little more south with this afternoons update. So far I would say that the EURO has been spot on over the last 3 days.

[SusieinLP]

Clouds are moving pretty fast.....not the usual puffy clouds that just hover around....

Rain is just to the south of LaPorte but not making it this far yet...

[Hardcoreweather]

Future NHC Track is showing landfall Wed at 7pm