FEBRUARY 2019: Cold Front & Storm Chances

[CRASHWX]

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“No comment....other than no comment”

[stormlover]

Crash explain

[CRASHWX]

Basically what Srain has been saying...pics support the cold coming back and maybe we’ll into March.

[Cromagnum]

Highs in mid 70a and muggy / rainy all week. Blech. Bring back the dry cold air.

[redneckweather]

Models are showing an arctic blast coming! Oh, but it's 2 weeks out...you know, what it has been showing all winter long. We have run out of time.

[srainhoutx]

Highs in mid 70a and muggy / rainy all week. Blech. Bring back the dry cold air.

Not sure we will get dry cold air, but sharply colder Friday morning with lows in the mid/upper 30's inland and mid to upper 40's along the Coast look possible. Unfortunately is doesn't look like we will clear out and additional embedded disturbances ride across the Southern half of Texas this coming weekend suggest chilly/dreary and possibly damp weather could be in the cards. That cloud cover should prevent a freeze, but I suppose the guidance is not capturing details 96+ hours out. If the GFS is to be believed, dewpoints behind the Thursday front do drop into the upper teens to the N and W of Metro Houston and low 20's along the I-10 Corridor.

[Belmer]

Non-Texas weather news:

Nice low pressure off the North Carolina coast this morning providing a beautiful visible satellite image for those who 'awe' at this kind of stuff -

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?type=Mi ... verDim=100

[mcheer23]

Models are showing an arctic blast coming! Oh, but it's 2 weeks out...you know, what it has been showing all winter long. We have run out of time.

Not out of time yet.

[srainhoutx]

Some trends that I have seen the past 24 hours or so. Temperatures are rather cold and certainly much colder in our source Regions of Yukon/British Columbia and Alberta in Canada. Some locations are in fact some 50+ colder than last week when the so called Polar Vortex dropped into the Mid West and brought our last shot of colder air. That last front did not have any air from Western Canada associated with it. Also Montana/Wyoming as are currently much colder than last week. Temperature forecasts in our source Region were forecast to moderate and that just has not happened. Very cold air is spilling into the Western United States and in fact snow may well fall in the Bay Area above 500 feet in elevation. Redding, CA may see a rare Northern California Valley snow event.

The 12Z Guidance is trending stronger with the High Pressure expected to drop into the Central Plains. The WPC forecast showed a 1040mb High and now the guidance is trending to near 1050mb. A stalled frontal boundary is draped across Kansas where temperatures N of the boundary are in the single digits to low teens right now. Temperatures S of the boundary in Oklahoma are in the mid 60's. The cold air well to our N appears to be somewhat shallow.

A storm system is expected to sweep out off the Rockies across the Plains Tuesday into Wednesday. Snow looks to spread across those locales. Rain and possibly some storms look to accompany the strong cold front Thursday. Temperatures may fall a good 40 degrees plus in the 12 hours following the frontal passage that is expected to be well offshore Friday in the Central Gulf Of Mexico.

[cperk]

Models are showing an arctic blast coming! Oh, but it's 2 weeks out...you know, what it has been showing all winter long. We have run out of time.

We have saw wintry weather here in southeast Texas as late as March.

[CRASHWX]

E084A3D4-CF37-4B5C-8E7B-E5181F0E2383.jpeg

Srain what do you think Joe is seeing?

[tireman4]

Meanwhile, today....

514
FXUS64 KHGX 041219
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
619 AM CST Mon Feb 4 2019

.AVIATION...
Southern terminal VLIFR to LIFR will lift to IFR through the
morning with far northern hubs lifting to MVFR in the coming
hours (if not already there by 6 AM). Improvement to brief VFR
late this afternoon into the early evening. Once the sun sets,
expect ceilings to lower by another category or two within a
couple of hours. Taking decks back down to IFR and below going
into the early Tuesday morning hours. Dense fog will be more of an
impact generally south of the I-10 corridor, but isolated pockets
may impact further interior hubs during the pre-dawn Tuesday
morning hours. A weak southerly wind will generally fall to or
below 5 knots during the overnight hours. This will create a more
favorable environment for more dense fog forming below the
lowering overcast ceilings. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CST Mon Feb 4 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Areas of fog (some dense with visibilities of one quarter of a
mile or less) are found across much of the central and coastal
areas of Southeast Texas early this morning. A Dense Fog Advisory
is in effect until 9 AM, and we will closely monitor surface
observations, satellite imagery and webcams for a possible
expansion of the advisory further inland. Expect to see most of
the inland fog to begin to slowly lift after sunrise and eventually
dissipate as the morning progresses. Fog areas in/around the Bays
and coastal waters might hang around for much of the day. Early
morning temperatures are unseasonably warm (mainly in the mid 60s
which are only a couple degrees away from record high mins). With
onshore winds remaining in place through midweek, see little
change to the warm early February temperatures with lows remaining
mainly in the 60s and highs warming up into the 70s for a majority
of the area. Will be keeping low rain chances in the forecast
through midweek, then carry increasing numbers beginning Wednesday
night as the next cold front begins to approach the area from the
north. Expect this front to now move through the inland areas
during the day on Thursday and through all of the coastal waters
Thursday evening. Look for a significant cooldown behind the cold
front for the end of the week and through the weekend. 42

MARINE...
Weaker southeast to south winds over average 2 foot significant sea
heights will persist through tomorrow. Dense sea fog has set in and
this will be the main theme through at least early Thursday. While
dense fog will improve within periods of light rain or drizzle it
will generally keep visibilities to under a mile and navigation
difficult. Wednesday and Thursday`s onshore flow will strengthen
with the approach of the next cold front. This front is timed to
reach the regional waters early Thursday evening. Strong post-
frontal north winds over the bays and nearshore Gulf waters will
quickly hit Advisory criteria around midnight Friday...frequently
gusting to gale force across the far offshore waters before sunrise
Friday. Advisory conditions will hang in through early Saturday with
north to northeast winds finally weakening below caution criteria
and veering east to southeast Sunday. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 74 62 75 64 76 / 10 10 20 20 20
Houston (IAH) 74 63 76 65 77 / 20 10 20 20 20
Galveston (GLS) 69 62 69 62 69 / 20 10 20 20 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for the following
zones: Austin...Brazoria Islands...Chambers...Coastal
Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal
Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort Bend...
Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Inland Brazoria...
Inland Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland
Matagorda...Matagorda Islands...Montgomery...Northern
Liberty...Polk...San Jacinto...Southern Liberty...Waller...
Wharton.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

&&

$$

Discussion...42
Aviation/Marine...31

[stormlover]

so strain ur saying it could be much colder this weekend than whats forecast right now?

[srainhoutx]

Srain what do you think Joe is seeing?

Somebody trying to get clicks on his twitter feed...

[srainhoutx]

so strain ur saying it could be much colder this weekend than whats forecast right now?

Watch the forecast trends. Do I believe the raw 2 meter temperatures are too warm? Possibly. I've seen this play out too many times in the 5 day forecast in the MOS/MAV/MEX and even the MET via the NAM Mesoscale model. This pattern is different in that our source Region is a lot colder than it has been and the air across Eastern Montana/Eastern Wyoming much colder too. Fine tuning of our sensible weather will continue throughout the week.

[harp]

The 12Z GFS and CMC were uneventful.

[unome]

love this from WPC's "Forecast Tools:

NDFD Max/Min Temps & Departure from Normal/Climo

Mouseover the weekday in table below. Images update about 60 minutes after the NDFD cycle time.
This prototype web page is not operationally supported 24/7.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/exper/ndfdmxmn/map.html

[CRASHWX]

Srain what do you think Joe is seeing?

Somebody trying to get clicks on his twitter feed...
[/quote

Thanks for that...

[sambucol]

Some trends that I have seen the past 24 hours or so. Temperatures are rather cold and certainly much colder in our source Regions of Yukon/British Columbia and Alberta in Canada. Some locations are in fact some 50+ colder than last week when the so called Polar Vortex dropped into the Mid West and brought our last shot of colder air. That last front did not have any air from Western Canada associated with it. Also Montana/Wyoming as are currently much colder than last week. Temperature forecasts in our source Region were forecast to moderate and that just has not happened. Very cold air is spilling into the Western United States and in fact snow may well fall in the Bay Area above 500 feet in elevation. Redding, CA may see a rare Northern California Valley snow event.

The 12Z Guidance is trending stronger with the High Pressure expected to drop into the Central Plains. The WPC forecast showed a 1040mb High and now the guidance is trending to near 1050mb. A stalled frontal boundary is draped across Kansas where temperatures N of the boundary are in the single digits to low teens right now. Temperatures S of the boundary in Oklahoma are in the mid 60's. The cold air well to our N appears to be somewhat shallow.

A storm system is expected to sweep out off the Rockies across the Plains Tuesday into Wednesday. Snow looks to spread across those locales. Rain and possibly some storms look to accompany the strong cold front Thursday. Temperatures may fall a good 40 degrees plus in the 12 hours following the frontal passage that is expected to be well offshore Friday in the Central Gulf Of Mexico.

What kind of temps are we looking at here? Hard freeze in the cards?

[wxman57]

E084A3D4-CF37-4B5C-8E7B-E5181F0E2383.jpegSrain what do you think Joe is seeing?

I think JB is just talking about what the European model is forecasting. I doubt that if he took a close look at the situation then he'd be forecasting any significant snow in Texas. 12Z Euro indicates a trace of snow around Austin with surface temps in the upper 30s, which is over a smaller area than previous runs.