January 2019 - Active Progressive WX Pattern Ahead

[srainhoutx]

Flash Flood Watch is going to be issued. Will begin at 6:00 AM tomorrow morning and continuing into Thursday Noon.

[mckinne63]

I just had to change into shorts and a tshirt. Had a sweatshirt on on Sunday. I am assuming with the rain will come the cooler temps?

[srainhoutx]

I just had to change into shorts and a tshirt. Had a sweatshirt on on Sunday. I am assuming with the rain will come the cooler temps?

Unfortunately the frontal boundary that was suppose to pass us today has stalled to our West around La Grange to Brenham to around Madisonville. those of us in Metro Houston may not cool down until a Pacific front passes sometime Thursday behind the big storm system that is expected to bring rounds of freezing rain well to our NW and North. It just goes to show how difficult the sensible weather forecast can be in in the very short range. That front was suppose to chill us down to the low to mid 40's tomorrow. Perhaps it will meander further S and E, but with the pesky SW flow aloft with the very noisy sub tropical jet, I suspect we will be stuck in the 50's to low 60's.

[Texaspirate11]

FLASH FLOOD WATCH is up for SE TX Wednesday - Thursday


...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for a portion of southeast Texas...including
the following counties...Austin...Brazoria Islands...Brazos...
Burleson...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...
Coastal Harris...Fort Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar
Peninsula...Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...Inland
Galveston...Inland Harris...Madison...Montgomery...Northern
Liberty...Polk...San Jacinto...Southern Liberty...Trinity...
Walker...Waller and Washington.

* From Wednesday morning through Thursday morning

* Flash flooding and flooding will be possible Wednesday into
Thursday. A band of heavy rainfall may form Wednesday morning
from College Station to Crockett and heavy rainfall may continue
to occur through the day. Gulf moisture will also move into the
area and cause additional rainfall mainly east of I-45.
Southeast Texas has already had rainfall the last seven days
which will cause any additional rainfall to runoff. Isolated
thunderstorms may cause brief heavy rainfall of 1 inch an hour.
Overall areas in the watch may get 2 to 3 inches of rainfall
with isolated bands of 4 inches.

* Potential Flood Impacts: In urban areas, street flooding and
flooding of underpasses and typical low lying areas can be be
expected. Bayous and creeks may have rapid rises and could reach
out of banks. Rural low lying areas, low water crossings and
poor drainage areas may flood. Rises on area rivers can be
expected and this could extend river flooding that is on going.

[Cpv17]

No flash flood watch here in Wharton County. Looks like most of the rain will miss me to my north.

[mckinne63]

I just had to change into shorts and a tshirt. Had a sweatshirt on on Sunday. I am assuming with the rain will come the cooler temps?

Unfortunately the frontal boundary that was suppose to pass us today has stalled to our West around La Grange to Brenham to around Madisonville. those of us in Metro Houston may not cool down until a Pacific front passes sometime Thursday behind the big storm system that is expected to bring rounds of freezing rain well to our NW and North. It just goes to show how difficult the sensible weather forecast can be in in the very short range. That front was suppose to chill us down to the low to mid 40's tomorrow. Perhaps it will meander further S and E, but with the pesky SW flow aloft with the very noisy sub tropical jet, I suspect we will be stuck in the 50's to low 60's.

Thanks srain! Need to plan my back to work wardrobe for tomorrow.

[srainhoutx]

Before the heavy rainfall event begins, I thought I would share something the very long range GFS is suggesting around mid January. We have spent some time talking about the Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event underway at this time. While I typically would not post a 384 hour chart of the GFS, is does help to show how the SSW Events may impact things going out in time. Currently the Polar Vortex is being attacked at several levels of the Atmosphere. Roll forward to mid month, the GFS suggest a split of the Polar Vortex into 2 big vortices and one minor vort. As the Artic warms due to top down warming to the Troposphere where we live and over the Artic Circle, cold air spills South across the Northern Hemisphere toward the lower latitudes. Baby steps toward a potential pattern change possibly.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 020945
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
345 AM CST Wed Jan 2 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Beginning to see the start of increasing shower coverage across
Southeast Texas early this morning, and expect this coverage to
be on the increase for parts of the area as the day progresses.
Rising precipitable water values (1.50-1.75 inches) along with
increasingly favorable jet dynamics and lots of overrunning are
still supportive of possible locally heavy rains and training,
so plan on no changes to the Flash Flood Watch that begins at
6 AM. It is still looking like we`ll start with the best
concentration of activity this morning up north with a general
expanse to the east and southeast as the day progresses and on
into the evening hours. Overnight and on into tomorrow morning,
the heaviest bulk of the earlier rains will gradually work its
way off to our east, but more development is anticipated
especially in/around a midnight to 6 AM time period. While this
new activity might not be as intense or have similar coverage
than today`s activity, any brief moderate to heavy rains falling/
training on already saturated grounds could produce additional
flooding issues. Tomorrow`s activity will continue moving off to
the east as the day progresses, and the current end time of the
Watch at Noon is still looking to be on track. Rainfall totals for
this event of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts possible
are still expected in and around the Watch area. Rains will come
to an end tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow evening from west to
east as drier air moves into the area. Cooler and drier weather
will close out the week, and gradually warming temperatures
(weather still dry) can be expected over the weekend. The area`s
next best chance of rain looks to come around Monday/Monday night
with the approach and passage of the next system and associated
cold front. 42

&&

.MARINE...
Overall forecast is on track and didn`t make many changes. Will
maintain current caution/advisory fcst conditions in the Gulf today
& tonight. Coastal trof will develop today and bringing unsettled wx
to the waters through Thursday as it eventually lifts ne toward the
La coast on Thurs. Moderate to strong nw winds in its wake can be
expected & will need to monitor for possible low water advisories as
water it transported out of the bays. Wind/seas will gradually
diminish and return to the southeast later this weekend. The next
front looks like it`ll push off the coast late Monday night with
caution/advisory conditions possible for a short duration in its
wake. 47

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Grounds are saturated and the additional rainfall that will be
falling today-Thurs will likely runoff and create another rise on
area rivers and streams. There is a good possibility we`ll see a
number of these rise back above flood stage. Levels will be
dependent where the more substantial rains falls. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
Rainfall will begin overspreading the area this morning and continue
through the TAF period. Greatest concentration will probably
initially begin near the CLL/UTS terminals then expand southward
through the day. There could be a few embedded tstms, but am leaning
toward leaving out a prolonged mention of VCTS and just amend as
necessary. Ceilings are already beginning to fall into the MVFR
category, but expect a continual downward trend to IFR for the
majority of the day and night. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 46 40 48 36 57 / 90 70 80 10 0
Houston (IAH) 52 45 50 38 56 / 90 90 80 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 56 49 54 44 56 / 80 90 90 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for the following
zones: Austin...Brazoria Islands...Brazos...Burleson...
Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal
Harris...Fort Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar
Peninsula...Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...Inland
Galveston...Inland Harris...Madison...Montgomery...Northern
Liberty...Polk...San Jacinto...Southern Liberty...Trinity...
Walker...Waller...Washington.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through this afternoon for
the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for the
following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

[srainhoutx]

Wednesday morning weather Update from Jeff:

Flash Flood Watch is in effect for much of the region today until noon Thursday.

There have been no significant changes to the forecast overnight and this morning with respect to rainfall amounts. Appears factors continue to slowly come together to produce widespread rainfall…some heavy at times…from about midday today through the overnight hours. Initial round of rainfall overnight has been a little bit further N/W than expected, but activity developing along the coast currently is starting to move inland and is showing signs of increasing in coverage and intensity as the coastal trough offshore continues to deepen. Appears the highest threat for the heaviest rains will be from early afternoon (1-2pm) through mid evening (7-9pm) with rain continuing off and on all night into early Thursday. Concern continues to be for any training bands that may develop as some of the models suggest may happen this evening and overnight somewhere between the coast and US 59.

Rainfall amounts remain unchanged with widespread 1-3 inches over much of the area and isolated totals of 4-5 inches. These higher isolated totals will focus where there is any sustained training overnight into early Thursday morning. Some of the recent guidance is suggest that areas across Brazoria, Galveston, Liberty, and the SE half of Harris County may see some training this evening.

As mentioned previously, grounds are saturated and much of what falls will be quickly converted to run-off. Significant rises on area watersheds is likely given the forecasted rainfall amounts. Most concern for minor flooding is for the creeks and bayous in the north and far eastern portions of Harris County and the San Jacinto River system (could see higher than minor flooding). Most other watersheds in Harris County should be able to handle the rainfall especially since short duration rainfall rates look to be less than 1.5 inches. Street flooding will be possible both for the evening commute today and again on Thursday morning. This will be the typical low lying areas where water tends to pond and also rural areas where roadside ditches or small creeks overtop the roadway.

While significant rises on area watersheds are likely, do not expect widespread bayou and creek flooding nor widespread structure flooding.

[tireman4]

Radar Update from Jeff. Be careful out there. Also, Happy New Year..

[CRASHWX]

Before the heavy rainfall event begins, I thought I would share something the very long range GFS is suggesting around mid January. We have spent some time talking about the Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event underway at this time. While I typically would not post a 384 hour chart of the GFS, is does help to show how the SSW Events may impact things going out in time. Currently the Polar Vortex is being attacked at several levels of the Atmosphere. Roll forward to mid month, the GFS suggest a split of the Polar Vortex into 2 big vortices and one minor vort. As the Artic warms due to top down warming to the Troposphere where we live and over the Artic Circle, cold air spills South across the Northern Hemisphere toward the lower latitudes. Baby steps toward a potential pattern change possibly.

WeatherBell agrees with you!

[djmike]

Before the heavy rainfall event begins, I thought I would share something the very long range GFS is suggesting around mid January. We have spent some time talking about the Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event underway at this time. While I typically would not post a 384 hour chart of the GFS, is does help to show how the SSW Events may impact things going out in time. Currently the Polar Vortex is being attacked at several levels of the Atmosphere. Roll forward to mid month, the GFS suggest a split of the Polar Vortex into 2 big vortices and one minor vort. As the Artic warms due to top down warming to the Troposphere where we live and over the Artic Circle, cold air spills South across the Northern Hemisphere toward the lower latitudes. Baby steps toward a potential pattern change possibly.

WeatherBell agrees with you!CA24088F-52C6-44CE-BC63-1D159A05DA27.png

Gosh I hope so. So far this winter has been a warm one compared to last winter when we had 3 snow events by this time. Bring it on!!

[Texaspirate11]

75 more days until Spring.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 021755
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1155 AM CST Wed Jan 2 2019

.UPDATE...

Light to moderate rain is falling across the vast majority of
Southeast Texas this morning. So far, rain rates have been
relatively gentle, with totals generally between a tenth and a
third of an inch so far. Heavier rain has been falling both to our
north and offshore. While rain so far and into the early afternoon
will not have much direct impact on its own, it will continue to
saturate grounds that are generally already pretty moist (per NASA
SPoRT LIS analysis). Rain rates are expected to pick up some
deeper into the afternoon and tonight. Though even these rain
rates aren`t going to fall at rates typical of flooding events in
our area (HREF implies a fairly stable band of 1 inch per 3 hr
over multiple 3 hr periods and only sporadic, localized spots of
1 inch per hour), there will be some potential for flooding in
vulnerable locations simply due to the sheer accumulation of
rainfall on saturated ground over time.

&&

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

Soupy mess out there across the area. Mixture of LIFR/IFR/MVFR.
Widespread stratiform rain with embedded deeper convective banding.
Little change in the overall conditions expect perhaps a slight
downward trend in visibility/ceilings as band strengthens mid
afternoon and pushes southwestward through the region. Could
possibly see a brief break in the precip after 03z but isentropic
lifting increases again after 09z and more of the banded precip
should return. Eventually CLL area should start drying out with
gradually improving ceilings after 15z Thursday as the system
departs.

45

&&

.MARINE...
Minor changes to the marine package, added a SCEC for the Bays with
a few sites showing sustained winds near 20 knots but have since
come down slightly. Extended the SCA with northwesterly flow in the
wake of the wave traversing the coastal waters this afternoon. Winds
and seas increasing late afternoon through the evening hours.

45

&&

[Cpv17]

Weird..it’s 41 degrees here in Wharton on my thermometer, but Wharton is reporting 45.

[jasons2k]

75 more days until Spring.

Yeah - now that the holidays are done, I no longer have the need for cold weather to make it feel like Christmas time. I'm ready for some 70's!!

[srainhoutx]

Weather update from Jeff:

NWS has issued an Urban Flood Advisory for SW, central, and NE Harris County until 830pm

A band of heavy rainfall with rainfall rates of 1.0-1.5 inches per hour is moving NNE over much of Harris County currently extending along the US 59 corridor. HCFCD gages show rainfall amounts of .75-1.5 inches with this band in an hour or less and this will likely result in some street flooding. Rises on area watersheds are likely, but creeks and bayous will be able to handle this round of rainfall.

Additional activity to the SW will likely move into the county over the next few hours.

[snowman65]

with all the rain, hurricanes, and flooding over the past 3 years, I'm starting to think this is the new annual "normal" for our region.

[cperk]

with all the rain, hurricanes, and flooding over the past 3 years, I'm starting to think this is the new annual "normal" for our region.

It would be nice if this rainy pattern could extend into the summer.

[Cpv17]

It’s looking like a big warming trend will happen starting this Saturday. All of next week looks above average temp wise and not much in the way of rainfall at least as of right now. Then it looks like by the 12th or 13th (next weekend) below normal temps look to setup for a while with lots of low pressure systems heading our way. So the mid January cool down is still looking good.