December 2018: Sunshine Returns New Years Eve

[CRASHWX]

JB very bullish on severe cold middle of country east...temp slide begains around New Years and stays cold for a while. Said blocking may lock in for remainder of winter. 8-10 degrees below normal. Snow cover starts going crazy post Christmas which will keep cold from modifying near as much...keeps talking 77-78 Jan Feb cold

[snowman65]

I've been saying for the last 2 week's it's going to be a dismal December.....I'm not holding my breath for any winter joy this year. I would love to be proven wrong, but...

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I've been saying for the last 2 week's it's going to be a dismal December.....I'm not holding my breath for any winter joy this year. I would love to be proven wrong, but...

It was always going to be a warm December if pattern held. Background state has to ease in. Turns out we ended up below normal and will.

You’re a glass half empty person, aren’t ya? All the signs point towards a cold and stormy January and February.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I love this track first! If we could get North Texas in the act first with a large storm, we won’t have to worry about cold air with succeeding fronts in the following days. There are several pieces of energy in the pipeline right behind it.

[jasons2k]

JB very bullish on severe cold middle of country east...temp slide begains around New Years and stays cold for a while. Said blocking may lock in for remainder of winter. 8-10 degrees below normal. Snow cover starts going crazy post Christmas which will keep cold from modifying near as much...keeps talking 77-78 Jan Feb cold

Just keep in mind, he does this every year.

[jasons2k]

Today and tomorrow look fantastic! No jacket required!

Decision of the day: what goes on that Green Egg?

[Katdaddy]

Today and tomorrow look fantastic! No jacket required!

Decision of the day: what goes on that Green Egg?

Ham and the Grinch

[Texaspirate11]

Wishing you all a wonderful warm Merry Christmas
I'm headed to the COLD NORTH....I'm not in love with that idea but
great to see family & friends.
Y'all take care......
Thank you ANDREW & STEVE for all your work....you are blessings!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[srainhoutx]

Concern growing of a potentially wet and stormy Wednesday/Thursday following Christmas Day as a deep Western trough develops and a series of storm systems continue to dig S and E into next weekend creating a myriad of weather worries across much of the Nation. Across our Region heavy rainfall and possibly strong to severe thunderstorms are on the table. A Major Winter Storm looks to dump heavy snow across the Central Plains into the Upper Mid West. Yet another very strong storm system looks likely next weekend continuing a rather unsettled weather pattern to end 2018.

[Cromagnum]

This Christmas weather is very unseasonal. Hopefully it's not near 80 degrees and upwards of 80% humidity like it has been in recent years.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

My high for Christmas Day is 68 with rain.

[cperk]

I would like to wish all my wxinfinity forum members and their families a very merry Christmas. I would also like to thank all the the members that worked so hard to keep this forum together,you know who you are. Last but not least I look forward to discussing some wintry weather with you guys and gals in the new year.

[Cpv17]

Larry Cosgrove just said he believes a -AO, -EPO, & a +PNA will set up during January & February. A positive PNA would suck for Texas though! We really need a neutral to slightly negative PNA here. The east coast has had their share of cold and snow and if that verifies then they will get a whole lot more of it.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Larry Cosgrove just said he believes a -AO, -EPO, & a +PNA will set up during January & February. A positive PNA would suck for Texas though! We really need a neutral to slightly negative PNA here. The east coast has had their share of cold and snow and if that verifies then they will get a whole lot more of it.

A positive PNA doesn’t suck as long as it isn’t very positive. It’s just not going to produce mammoth storms that a neutral or negative typically would.

[CRASHWX]

JB Saturday report was pretty hard nosed on cold coming

[CRASHWX]

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[BlueJay]

Peace on earth and good will toward men.

Merry Christmas everyone!

[srainhoutx]

Merry Christmas everyone! Stay weather aware Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday. Severe Thunderstorms possible with damaging wind gusts and the possibility of a quick spin up tornado or two as a squall line forms along and ahead of a Pacific cold front in West Central Texas Wednesday evening and heads our way in the overnight hours into Thursday morning. Heavy rainfall is also a possibility with areas mainly along and N of I-10 getting 2 to 3 inches and those closer to the Coast, 1 to 2 inches. There is still some uncertainty with the storm track as the guidance has trended slightly more South into Northern Mexico and taken on a more negative tilt of the upper trough axis meaning greater dynamics. Stay Tuned!

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[srainhoutx]

Christmas Eve weather briefing from Jeff:

A strong storm system will move across TX mid week with heavy rainfall and severe weather possible.

Dry air mass in place over SE TX this morning will undergo rapid air mass modification later today and tonight. Surface boundary off the coast will begin to back northward as a warm front in response to deepening low pressure over NW TX early Tuesday. A strong upper level trough will dig into the SW US and N MX today and Tuesday and then eject ENE/NE across the southern plains late Wednesday into Thursday.

Warm front will lift northward across the area tonight with temperatures rising and rapid influx of low level moisture and clouds. May see fog and even some drizzle by early Christmas morning as the moist air mass moves across the cool ground. Will maintain a 20-30% chance of a passing shower on Christmas as highs warm into the lower 70’s under warm air advection.

Surface low will deepen over NW TX on Wednesday and begin to move eastward. Well defined warm sector air mass will be in place by midday Wednesday with mid to upper 60 degree dewpoints likely across all of SE TX. Strong wind fields begin to overspread the region by mid to late afternoon of Wednesday with a strong low level jet of 40-50kts helping to transport rich tropical moisture over the southern Gulf of Mexico into the region. Instability does begin to increase late Wednesday with CAPE values of 1000-1200 J/kg over the region, which is not all that impressive, but when combined the strong deep layer shear that will be in place over the area…severe weather will be possible. Would like to see more CAPE in place for a higher severe weather event…but experience with cool season Gulf coast events indicates that not much instability is required sometimes with such dynamic storm systems. This could be an event that results in low topped supercells with marginal CAPE (instability) yet high shear. SPC has already outlooked much of the area for a Day 3 slight risk and if better instability moves into the area an upgrade of this risk will be needed given the strong wind field that will be in place.

While all severe modes will be in play…think damaging winds along a fast moving squall line and isolated tornadoes will be the biggest threats. If supercells can develop out ahead of the main line…then a few tornadoes would be possible. Squall line should moves across the area between midnight and 600am on Thursday and this will likely be the greatest threat period for severe weather.

PWS increase into the 1.5 inch range by mid afternoon Wednesday and heavy rainfall will be possible with this system. Overall fast storm motions of greater than 20kts and fast movement of the storm system should preclude significant rainfall totals. However a widespread 1-2 inches of rain is likely especially north of I-10 with isolated amounts of 3-4 inches. Grounds remain moist over the region and time of year supports maximum run-off so rises on area creeks, bayous, and river are likely, but forecasted rainfall totals are below levels that would likely cause any significant concerns.

Brief high pressure builds into the area post frontal passage Thursday morning with likely clearing skies and cool weather Thursday and Friday, but another powerful upper level system will drop SE along the US west coast toward Baja by next weekend allowing an act SW flow aloft to develop by late Friday over TX. Cold air mass at the surface with warm air and moisture flowing over the top supports an increase in clouds and rain chances for next weekend into New Year’s Day. For now will go to 40% rain chances each day (29th-1st), but some days will end up with higher chances as disturbances aloft pass over the region. Surface temperatures will be potentially cold during this period (40’s), but should remain above freezing over all of SE TX and preclude any winter precipitation.

[Cpv17]

The main thing I keep seeing on the models that I’m not liking is that these troughs/lows from the southwest keep kicking out strongly northeast through the panhandle/central plains instead of cutting through the central or southern part of Texas.