December 2018: Sunshine Returns New Years Eve

[TexasBreeze]

Many indices I have seen and read about across the Interwebs say the Arctic will return soon...

[srainhoutx]

I am seeing indications in the longer range ensembles suggesting some very chilly air arrives around December 5th/6th. The progressive zonal flow that we have been experiencing looks to be replaced by a very deep trough across much of the Nation. We also need to monitor this weekend as December begins as a storm system organizes and brined a potential of strong to possibly some severe storms across portions of the Lone Star State.

[stormlover]

Site looks good!!

[Texaspirate11]

Woohooooooo!!!

[Clipper]

Very glad to be here. Long time (5 plus years) lurker; now new member. Thanks to all who made the transition here possible.

[CRASHWX]

Love the new site!

[harp]

I'm in!!!

[Andrew]

Glad everyone enjoys it so far. Now we can have some great weather discussion and keep our fingers crossed for some December winter weather!

[cperk]

I'm in and happy to be here.

[unome]

Dec 1st & overnight low in the 70s, but lows in the 30s forecast for Mon & Tue night - more weather whiplash !

Code: Select all

261 
FXUS64 KHGX 010937
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
337 AM CST Sat Dec 1 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Sct shra and a few elevated tstms along the dryline/front will
continue to sag southeastward and off the coast in the next 
several hours. Drier airmass will filter in behind with clearing 
skies and fog dissipation following in its wake. A warm start to 
the day combined with msunny skies & a dry airmass should lead to
high temperatures well above normal today. That same setup should
allow for readings to drop fairly quickly after sunset.

Not many changes were made to the ongoing forecast package as
overall forecast pattern and thinking remains about the same.
Look for another front to move across the area on Monday. It
should be moisture starved so am not expecting much in the way of
precip with it. High pressure building in its wake will lead to 
mclr, dry and cool wx thru Wed-Thurs. 

The next storm system is expected to approach from the west probably
sometime Friday. Medium range solutions are still indicating the 
potential for some fairly impressive dynamics with this system and
will be something to keep an eye on next week.  47

&&

.MARINE...
Patchy dense sea fog will continue through these early morning hours 
over the bays and nearshore waters but the arrival of a weak Pacific 
cold front around mid morning will help to improve visibilities with 
the influx of slightly cooler/drier air. Generally light to moderate 
N/NW winds are expected this afternoon in the wake of this front and 
could persist into tonight. A light/variable pattern is expected for 
Sun as high pressure moves over the area. The next cold front is now 
forecast to move off the coast early Mon, with the stronger (colder) 
air not reaching the marine zones until early Mon afternoon. Caution 
and/or Advisory flags will likely be required by mid/late Mon after-
noon on into Tue.  East winds on Wed are then forecast to transition 
to a strengthening S/SE flow by Thurs. We may have to watch for some 
stormy weather late Fri ahead of the next cold front early Sat. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
The 12Z TAF package should see improving conditions from the NW with 
the passage of the weak cold front across SE TX. However...out ahead 
of this line, CIG/VIS restrictions will prevail. The strong cap over 
the region is helping to keep activity along this front rather limit-
ed so far this morning...and will likely keep with VCSH unless/until 
storms get close enough to a TAF site. VFR conditions should prevail 
across the region by this afternoon and tonight. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      77  49  74  47  59 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Houston (IAH)              80  52  79  49  65 /   0   0   0  10   0 
Galveston (GLS)            77  60  76  58  66 /  10   0   0  10  10 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for the following 
     zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and Bolivar 
     Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for the following 
     zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship 
     Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to 
     Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 2 PM CST this 
     afternoon for the following zones: Coastal waters from 
     Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal 
     waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters 
     from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 
     NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 
     NM.

&&

$$

[snowman65]

I'm in!!

[srainhoutx]

Welcome to our new home! I cannot express how excited we are to be here and to have a new chapter for our Weather Community and that the old historical data has survived and is safely here in OUR Wx Infinity Forum! So many years of memories, high impact weather events as well as Members that gave so much of their time and have left us far too soon. It is all here! Andrew, your dedication and diligent work over the past 3 weeks has been nothing short of miraculous! To ALL of our Members, Followers, Lurkers and those that just get weather Updates, this Wx Infinity Forums is for YOU!

Now on to why we are here...the weather...

Warm temperatures will give way to a cool and quiet early/mid week weather pattern to that of a highly active late week/early weekend potentially stormy pattern with a myriad of weather worries a possibility. The various computer models struggle with small scale features with a storm system currently located across the North Pacific Ocean and will not begin impacting Southern California until the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe. The sensible weather forecast this far out remains volatile and likely will change daily until we near the mid week timeframe. The current thinking is that a vigorous storm system will track rather far S across Southern California into Northern Mexico/Southern Arizona and on East across Central Texas and Southern Louisiana. It does appear a Coastal low/trough will develop as the major storm system approaches. Low Level Moisture and upper air dynamics increase dramatically on Thursday evening and continue on Friday. Fridays sensible weather could be very stormy with both warm sector thunderstorms and heavy rainfall while in the cold sector, wintery mischief may create a potential for significant travel trouble Friday into next Saturday. It is too soon to know with any certainty exactly what the weather may bring, but we will be monitoring throughout the coming week!

12012018 Day 6 Surface Chart 9mhwbg_conus.gif

12012018 Day 7 Surface Chart 9nhwbg_conus.gif

12012018 Day 7 Frozen Precip prbww_sn25_DAY7.gif

12012018 Day 6 to 7 QPF 97ep48iwbg_fill.gif

[CrashTestDummy]

Well, hopefully that precip map is a little optimistic, or too far west!! I think we _just_ got to the point there is no visible standing water in the yard. Hoping to be able to mow some weeds mid-week!

[Texaspirate11]

Hello! So happy...much thanks Andrew!

[BigNorthSide]

So glad the board is still here! I have been a long time member although I rarely post. You all have no idea how much the info here has helped me over the years! Thanks to all who participate in this wonderful forum!!

[srainhoutx]

Saturday midday briefing from Jeff:

Overall pretty much a temperature forecast for the next several days as moisture has been scoured out of the area by recent frontal passages.

Temperatures today and Sunday will run near to above normal with clear skies and a dry air mass in place with highs in the 70’s and lows in the 40’s and 50’s. A stronger cold front will move across the area late Sunday into early Monday with strong cold air advection and a noticeable drop in temperatures. Highs Monday-Tuesday will drop into the 50’s with lows falling back into the 30’s and 40’s over the region. Could see a light freeze Tuesday or Wednesday morning over our northern and northeastern counties. Southerly flow begins to return to the area on Wednesday with moisture deepening. Not expecting any rainfall today-Wednesday.

Late Next Week:
Forecast models including the GFS, ECMWF, and CMC all pointing to a fairly strong storm system digging far south into northern MX and then ejecting eastward across TX around Friday-Saturday. There are still some timing differences…although the major global models are really not that far apart from each other…pointing toward a Friday afternoon into early Saturday event. Models are however handling a surging arctic cold front differently and track of a surface low pressure system differently as one would expect at this long range. CMC is much faster with the intrusion of a shallow cold air mass down the plains and into TX and has much more winter precipitation across NC/NW TX where the GFS and ECMWF is slower and warmer. Will side with the ECWMF and GFS solutions for now, but these shallow cold air masses tend to plow southward faster than models usually suggest and this could make for a tricky temperature forecast on Friday with a warm and humid air mass near the coast and a cold arctic air mass sliding into our NW counties. Looks to be plenty of moisture with this system with the most recent GFS run showing a rainfall at IAH of around 3 inches and both the ECWMF and CMC models are also fairly wet. Formation and track of the surface low/coastal trough near the coast or inland this time may bring both a heavy rainfall and possible severe threat. Still some questions to be answered and models this time of year tend to overdo longer range depths of systems…so something to watch for the Thursday-Saturday time period.

[DoctorMu]

The Canadian sniffs out a frost on the 5th and a freeze on the 10th and the 11th. GFS brings in a potent front a week for the first half of December.

[Cpv17]

[srainhoutx]

Temperatures are running 15 to 20 cooler this morning when compared to this time yesterday. Plentiful sunshine should allow temperatures to warm into the low/mid 70's today before a modified Artic cold front arrives tonight fresh on the heals of a Central/Northern Plains snow storm. Snow showers may wring out across the Texas Panhandle tonight into tomorrow, but most of Texas remains dry.

Monday through Wednesday look cool and dry across the Region. Areas N and E of Metro Houston may flirt with near freezing morning lows Tuesday and Wednesday. Thursday is a transition day as a potent storm system currently located near the Gulf of Alaska drops to offshore of Southern California and begins a trek that appears to be from the Baja Peninsula across Northern Mexico into Texas and eventually on East into Louisiana and the Northern Gulf Coast States. This storm system appears to have the makings of a Major Weather Event and likely will grab the Weather Headlines as the new week progresses. Track/timing/impacts still remain uncertain this far out, but needless to say we encourage folks to monitor the weather forecast day to day as this storm has the potential to bring a myriad of weather worries across most of Texas and beyond.

[snowman65]

starting to look like November will be a colder month than December. Hopefully January and February will bring us cold weather peeps some treats.