NOVEMBER 2018: Thanksgiving Outlook

[sau27]

Whats the deal with the sudden shut down notice at the top of the page???

[mckinne63]

Whats the deal with the sudden shut down notice at the top of the page???

http://forums.khou.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2248

[Cromagnum]

I may as well set fire to my St Augustine yard. Brown patch has lost its mind with all the rain this year and chemical control has done absolutely nothing to slow it down, let alone stop it. 75% of my yard is orange now.

[DoctorMu]

I may as well set fire to my St Augustine yard. Brown patch has lost its mind with all the rain this year and chemical control has done absolutely nothing to slow it down, let alone stop it. 75% of my yard is orange now.

and I thought University of Texas' color came from the steer. More like brown patch! There's no fighting >20 inches of rain. That's one way to stop the grass from going and a need to mow regularly. fungicide only put a small dent in progress in the front year. I didn't even bother with the back.

[srainhoutx]

The overnight Ensembles continue to advertise the coldest air of the Fall Season to invade the Nation along and East of the Rockies. A One - Two punch of colder air arrives late this week with a second and stronger surge arriving early next week. Look for a chance of snow across portions of the Central/Southern Plains late this week. As a note, Colorado is running way above last year as far as snow pack is concerned. Currently the Colorado Highlands are running about 200% above last year at this time. It took until January last year to reach the current snowfall totals in Colorado. Temperatures across Canada have cooled considerably where temperatures in the NW Territories are as low as -30 Celsius.

[DoctorMu]

Dewpoint of 71°F in November. Not what I was looking for - hoping for 70s and dry; even 80s and dry. It feels like last fall or the swamps of south Louisiana out there.

Blue northers to the rescue it is. After Thursdays storms it should be partly sunny to sunny skies. Highs near 60°F.

[Cromagnum]

84 degree high and pea soup in November...

[tireman4]

Seven Day Outlook

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 061126
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
526 AM CST Tue Nov 6 2018

.AVIATION...
Areas of dense fog and a mix of LIFR/IFR cigs will prevail this
morning with gradual improvement between 16-18z. VFR cigs will
prevail this aftn as a weak boundary meanders north. The boundary
will also allow for a few showers this morning. Did not mention a
VCSH in the TAFs as prob of occurrence looks low. Fcst soundings
show some potential for skies to clear briefly this evening before
MVFR/IFR ceilings redevelop. Soundings showed some potential for
fog again tonight but winds just off the surface should provide a
bit of mixing and leaned toward a mix of IFR/MVFR cigs. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CST Tue Nov 6 2018/

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...

Patchy to dense fog quickly developed overnight across most of the
local area. A Dense Fog Advisory was issued through 10 AM CDT this
morning for the majority of the area west of I45, including
Houston and Crockett counties.

Tranquil weather conditions expected today. A few isolated
showers could develop particularly over the eastern to
southeastern counties, but no significant rainfall is expected at
the moment. High temperatures in the afternoon will range between
the low to mid 80s.

On Wednesday, a weak frontal boundary will pass north of our area.
The combination of southwesterly wind flow, available low level
moisture, warm temperatures and higher CAPE values, will aid in
shower and thunderstorm development across the majority of the
area. Southwest winds become west northwest in the afternoon and
then north by late afternoon. Winds become east on Wednesday
night into Thursday.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Monday)...

A strong shortwave trough is expected to amplify across the
central portions of CONUS on Thursday. Thursday night into early
Friday morning, the trough and associated cold front is expected
to move across SE TX. Expect a further increase in shower and
thunderstorm activity, particularly ahead and along the frontal
boundary, as it converges with the moist warm air. Overall PWAT
values in GFS range from 1.5 to 2.0 inches. Weather conditions
will begin to improve by Friday night as drier air settles across
the region. For the weekend into early next week, tranquil
weather conditions with cooler temperatures can be expected.

MARINE...

A weak pressure gradient will remain in place today and a light S-SW
flow will prevail. The gradient will tighten this evening and a
slightly stronger onshore flow is expected before winds again
decrease toward early Wednesday morning. A slow moving cold front
will move into the region on Wednesday night but the front will
remain north of the coastal waters. The front will ooze into the
coastal waters on Thursday morning and winds will become E-NE. A
much stronger cold front will cross the coastal waters on Friday.
Strong northerly winds and rough seas are expected Friday into the
weekend. Small craft advisories will be needed. Tide levels should
remain around 0.5 to 1 foot above normal the next few days with no
impacts to area Gulf facing beaches. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 85 69 80 61 69 / 10 10 40 40 60
Houston (IAH) 85 71 84 64 73 / 20 10 50 50 60
Galveston (GLS) 79 73 79 69 74 / 20 10 50 50 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for the
following zones: Austin...Brazos...Burleson...Coastal
Brazoria...Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...
Fort Bend...Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...Inland
Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Madison...Montgomery...
Northern Liberty...Polk...San Jacinto...Trinity...Walker...
Waller...Washington...Wharton.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...24
Aviation/Marine...43

[mcheer23]

Well...the 12z GFS is quite chilly.

[Cpv17]

Well...the 12z GFS is quite chilly.

And wet.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Global Deterministic Models have all trended colder including the "new" GFS (FV3) and the ECMWF. The second shot o colder air appears to be trending a bit further West in its trajectory toward the Plains versus a glancing shot to our East.

[CrashTestDummy]

I may as well set fire to my St Augustine yard. Brown patch has lost its mind with all the rain this year and chemical control has done absolutely nothing to slow it down, let alone stop it. 75% of my yard is orange now.

and I thought University of Texas' color came from the steer. More like brown patch! There's no fighting >20 inches of rain. That's one way to stop the grass from going and a need to mow regularly. fungicide only put a small dent in progress in the front year. I didn't even bother with the back.

If it's not underwater for months at a time, it's without water for months at a time. It's a wonder there's anything growing at all other than dyemakers puffballs!

Probably time to roll out the Astroturf, but it will probably blow away in the next storm.

[CrashTestDummy]

84 degree high and pea soup in November...

It's a great day when you can walk outside in the morning, and eat some of the atmosphere for breakfast!!

[Texaspirate11]

Galveston could break a record today with a high temp.....

. Ob trends indicating that we could
see slightly higher temperatures this afternoon...including a high
temperature record that could be broken at Galveston. The previous
record high for GLS is 82F set in 2017 and 2005.


PLEASE KEEP THIS FORUM OPEN KHOU!

[Cpv17]

[DoctorMu]

That's a LeBron level weather slam dunk.

[Cpv17]

Could this challenge records?

[Katdaddy]

A warm muggy morning with areas of fog N of Houston this morning. The SPC has a marginal risk area across SE TX this afternoon and evening ahead of the first cool front. A second cool front will move across SE TX Thursday night bringing much cooler weather through the weekend with highs in the 50s and lows in the 40s. It will seem more like Winter with gloomy skies and showers.

[srainhoutx]

Temperatures tomorrow should start the downward trend from the muggy and sticky late Summer/early Fall 'feels like' conditions we are currently experiencing. Expect temperatures on Friday to be a good 15 to 20 degrees cooler than today and likely holding steady throughout Saturday into midday Sunday when a very strong Canadian Front arrives Sunday night/early Monday. Next Monday could be a very raw drizzly day when temperatures may struggle to reach the upper 40's for highs. We will be watching the Tuesday night/Wednesday morning timeframe very closely as the guidance is indicating that clear skies and very chilly temperatures may bring the first frost to the area. I know our gardeners pay close attention to that sort of detail. Stay tuned!