NOVEMBER 2018: Thanksgiving Outlook

[BlueJay]

November 2018 will host our mid-term elections nationwide and Thanksgiving. The weather plays an important role for both of these special events. Will we need an umbrella? Sunglasses? Sweater? Coat?

Lets talk about it.

[snowman65]

November 2018 will host our mid-term elections nationwide and Thanksgiving. The weather plays an important role for both of these special events. Will we need an umbrella? Sunglasses? Sweater? Coat?

Lets talk about it.

This is Southeast Texas.....you will need ALL OF THE ABOVE....

[srainhoutx]

The reliable ensembles suggest November will begin colder than normal and wetter than normal.

[DoctorMu]

The reliable ensembles suggest November will begin colder than normal and wetter than normal.

Canadian and Japanese models come in colder than GFS, but we should actually have some pleasant weather ahead in November.

[Cpv17]

It’s beginning to look like another severe weather outbreak will be possible Sunday or Monday.

[srainhoutx]

November begins with a highly amplified pattern with quick moving troughs and upper air disturbances lending to a changeable weather pattern into the weekend and early next week. Amplifies progressive patterns bring much uncertainty to our sensible weather forecast, so expect day to day changes as we head into Saturday regarding any weather worries Saturday night into Sunday. Take a jacket today. It's breezy and much cooler than this time yesterday morning. Cheers!

[BlueJay]

It's a sunglasses, coat and, for me, a scarf, kind of day.

[Cpv17]

The 12z Euro shows about 2-8” of rain for SETX in the 7-9 day timeframe.

[srainhoutx]

Last night's cold front has pushed well out into the Gulf. I'm not convinced we will have enough moisture at the lower levels to support any heavier rainfall in our part of the World in the very fast progressive pattern that is expected. There is some mid level moisture from the Eastern Pacific streaming over Central Mexico, but I doubt enough deep rich tropical moisture will be available from the SE before the next shortwave arrives Saturday afternoon into early Sunday.

[Cpv17]

The FV3 has a huge front in about a week or so, but the GFS doesn’t have it. Which one to believe?

[Katdaddy]

It will be interesting to see how the trough and EPAC will interact the next 5-7 days.

[sau27]

12z Euro joining the 12Z GFS showing quite a cold front around next weekend. Not down to freezing but maybe touching the upper 30s at night.

[srainhoutx]

The pleasant weather will quickly turn cloudy and drizzly tonight as a cold front currently entering the Panhandle sweeps SE and stalls near the Coast tomorrow. A second front arrives Tuesday setting up a chance for some over running moisture from mid week until the end of the work week, The overnight guidance is trending toward the possibility of the strongest cold front of the Fall Season arriving sometime of Friday/early Saturday. There may be a robust winter storm developing across portions of the Panhandle/Southern Plains with this strong cold front with snow in the coldest air and very chilly rain across N Texas. Temperatures may tumble into the upper 30's to low 40's behind that late week front, if the Medium Range guidance is correct.

[snowman65]

I also noticed a huge plunge of very cold air on the gfs headed this way Thanksgiving week.

[srainhoutx]

Anytime I see the ECMWF suggesting a 1050 mb High in Colorado in November that suggests mighty chilly air settling in the Lone Star State. Consensus growing that the first real Blue Norther may be coming late next week.

[Cpv17]

Cold and wet times appear to be ahead of us.

[DoctorMu]

If we can keep the darned EPAC moisture and SJT at bey the front could be pretty dry next weekend.

[DoctorMu]

20.37 inches of rain in September and October IMBY. That's just over half a year's worth of precipitation in just 2 months! Whoa.

...and another couple of inches last night. Sunny for the next 3 days before the front.

[srainhoutx]

Roller-coaster weather pattern ahead the next 7 to 10 days with cold fronts arriving every 3 to 4 days. The late week front continues to look like the strongest front we've seen so far this Fall Season. I am carefully watching an even stronger front arriving early next week. We could see some snow flying across the Southern Rockies/Central/Southern Plains late this week and again this weekend. If that verifies, the cold air advection behind those two strong fronts could bring some very chilly temperatures well into our Region. Enjoy the 80's today and tomorrow...

[tireman4]

Well, this is a weather forum...so heads up to the East of us...it could be a rocky day out there...