OCTOBER 2018 - Stormy Halloween

[tireman4]

Yep. Brooks talked about that on his mid morning report on Facebook..

[Cromagnum]

What time is the 2nd round supposed to hit. I am going to be livid if I get stuck at the airport overnight on top of the current delay. We were supposed to arrive at 1 originally (when all of the current crap has long passed), and now arriving around 9 PM.

[tireman4]

What time is the 2nd round supposed to hit. I am going to be livid if I get stuck at the airport overnight on top of the current delay. We were supposed to arrive at 1 originally (when all of the current crap has long passed), and now arriving around 9 PM.

The pro mets might be able to tell you more on this..but....here is HGX...

The 12Z upper level sounding out of College Station shows a
small, breakable cap at 950 mb. With daytime heating, this cap
should erode by the early afternoon hours. Most of the short term
guidance continues to develop showers and thunderstorm this
afternoon out ahead of the cold front. These storms could become
severe with strong winds, hail and an isolated tornado possible.
Have gone ahead and raised PoPs to account for current radar
imagery and trends in the short term guidance. Considering this
morning`s model guidance, the timing of the cold front at this
time appears to be about the same. Expecting storms to reach our
northern tier of counties from Caldwell to Crockett late this
afternoon into early this evening, moving into the Houston metro
and along I-10 during the evening hours, and reaching the coast
around midnight. Much of SE TX remains in an enhanced risk for
severe storms today and through the evening hours, issued by SPC.

[Belmer]

What time is the 2nd round supposed to hit. I am going to be livid if I get stuck at the airport overnight on top of the current delay. We were supposed to arrive at 1 originally (when all of the current crap has long passed), and now arriving around 9 PM.

Could be dicey if you're arriving around 9:00 this evening. The mess out in central and northern TX will become a little bit better organized over the next few hours forming linear (squall line) as it approaches SETX this evening. This will bring torrential rain as atmosphere is very moist surface well on up. Also the potential for some severe weather... with straight line winds and hail being the main threat. Can't rule out an isolated tornado threat along and ahead of the main line if we get some discreet supercells to form ahead of it with a strong LLJ in place.

Once the mess to our north gets a little better organized, can hopefully get a better time frame on when the storms will arrive this evening... but 8-11pm looks to be the focus right now.

If arriving into Hobby... may have a little better luck getting in compared to IAH but both airports will be wary landing any planes with a strong change in wind direction along with thunderstorms.

[DoctorMu]

What time is the 2nd round supposed to hit. I am going to be livid if I get stuck at the airport overnight on top of the current delay. We were supposed to arrive at 1 originally (when all of the current crap has long passed), and now arriving around 9 PM.

Yeah, they missed the window. The 2nd wave of storms should be moving from CLL to HOU between about 7 and 9 pm this evening.

[snowman65]

GFS has gone of the deep end again for mid November....

[txbear]

Hi all. New to posting, but have been viewing the forums since well before Harvey last year. This is a fantastic weather group with tons of good discussion and insight. Would have been really nice to have something similar in the other regions of Texas that I lived. With that long-winded intro, here's my first foray into the forum discussions.

Just get the sense that all of the shower activity and cloud cover this morning (and currently hanging on) is going to temper the severe discreet cell threat this afternoon. Although a couple of decent looking storms are out there on radar, not to mention a nice shelf cloud to look at over here around the Galleria area. Not saying you hope for that, just going a bit against the initial forecast discussion. But as I've learned through the decades, nailing down weather in Texas (in general even) is like catching a greased pig.

[unome]

https://twitter.com/iembot_hgx
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/
http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatc ... ch_mpd.php

Code: Select all

Mesoscale Discussion 1601
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0214 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018

   Areas affected...parts of east to eastern Texas and far western
   Louisiana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 311914Z - 312145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms are likely to increase in coverage and intensity by
   late afternoon across central into east-central Texas, continuing
   into western Louisiana after 9-10 pm. Damaging winds will be
   possible initially, with a couple tornadoes increasingly possible
   through the night.

   DISCUSSION...An axis of substantial moisture and instability
   currently stretches from Deep South TX northward to an approaching
   cold front. Lift is increasing across the region in association with
   a leading shortwave trough, with an abrupt wind shift noted above
   the surface at the DFX VWP. Lift is strongest where this feature
   intersects the surface front, currently over central TX where a
   cluster of elevated storms exists. 

   With time, storms should increase in intensity as they translate
   southeastward. Severe wind is possible as storms become more linear
   in a few hours. Veering winds above the surface will mitigate SRH
   and tornado threat for western parts of the discussion area.
   However, a tornado threat may eventually materialized over eastern
   areas. 

   For southeastern TX into LA, early-day convection has left
   relatively cool air across the Houston area where showers persist.
   Area VWPs show marginally favorable wind profiles for supercells,
   which should get better with time as both the low-level jet and
   winds aloft increase. Here, effective SRH around 200-300 should
   develop this evening. As a result, a few storms near the upper TX
   coast toward southwest LA may become supercells, and a tornado
   cannot be ruled out. In addition, a burst of new development may
   occur immediately ahead of any approaching squall line from the
   west, with tornado threat.

   ..Jewell/Thompson.. 10/31/2018

   ...Please see http://www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

Code: Select all

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0998
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
315 PM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018

Areas affected...ArkLaTexOma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 311914Z - 010114Z

Summary...Convergence of tropical moisture with a surface cold
front with a jet streak entering from the south will raise a flash
flood threat with hourly rates of up to 2 inches possible into
this evening.

Discussion...A cold front driven by widespread convective activity
across north TX (with a squall shifting east across north TX this
afternoon) and southeast OK will continue to drift east/southeast
over northeast TX and into AR/LA into this evening. Surface based
activity ahead of the front will encounter instability of 1500
J/kg per latest RAP mesoanalysis in a zone of low 70 degree
dewpoints. PWATs are on the order of 1.6-1.8" per 18Z GPS data,
which is 2 standard deviations above normal. Furthermore, a 100kt
SWly jet is nosing into south TX per 250mb and above derived
motion winds from GOES-16.

A favorable flash flood setup is developing over Northeast TX and
farther northeast into AR/LA with low level moisture convergence,
mid level flow parallel to the surface front, and increasingly the
left exit of the jet that will drift southeast over south TX per
12Z guidance consensus. Am in agreement with recent HRRR runs
highlighting this area with potential excessive rain despite near
or below normal rainfall in the past week for much of the threat
area.

Activity has remained progressive this afternoon across north TX
and since rain cooled air continues to win the battle at the
front, so the flash flood threat should be isolated going into
this evening with localized rain rates up to 2 in/hr.

Jackson

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...LZK...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

[srainhoutx]

Time to start paying close attention to the weather, gang. Looks like the atmosphere is getting primed across East Central Texas into Louisiana.

[jasons2k]

I don’t see any sort of break this afternoon which would allow much instability to build. Looks like a mostly rain event to me.

[sau27]

I don’t see any sort of break this afternoon which would allow much instability to build. Looks like a mostly rain event to me.

I agree, but SPC is seeing something persuading them to issue a Watch shortly. I trust their eyes more than mine.

[Cromagnum]

I don’t see any sort of break this afternoon which would allow much instability to build. Looks like a mostly rain event to me.

Hope that's the case. Southwest just lost my future business. They cancelled many flights into Houston earlier when other carriers landed +/- 30 minutes around when ours should have. Lost an entire day of vacation and I'm not even home yet. Worried about the 2nd flight they have us on getting in at 9

[Texaspirate11]

You were right on Steve


TORNADO WATCH 416 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS


TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANDERSON ANGELINA AUSTIN
BASTROP BOWIE BRAZORIA
BRAZOS BURLESON CALDWELL
CAMP CASS CHAMBERS
CHEROKEE COLORADO FALLS
FAYETTE FORT BEND FRANKLIN
FREESTONE GALVESTON GONZALES
GREGG GRIMES HARDIN
HARRIS HARRISON HENDERSON
HOUSTON JASPER JEFFERSON
LAVACA LEE LEON
LIBERTY LIMESTONE MADISON
MARION MILAM MONTGOMERY
MORRIS NACOGDOCHES NEWTON
ORANGE PANOLA POLK
RED RIVER ROBERTSON RUSK
SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SAN JACINTO
SHELBY SMITH TITUS
TRINITY TYLER UPSHUR
VAN ZANDT WALKER WALLER
WASHINGTON WHARTON WOOD

[sau27]

That storm Southwest of town is starting to look suspiciously supercelly

[Stormrider]

Received a quick 1+ inches in Galveston this afternoon. And this isn't the main event.

[Belmer]

That storm Southwest of town is starting to look suspiciously supercelly

Was just about to mention that... If you're in the Sugar Land/Missouri City area... keep a close eye to the cell approaching your SW. Radar shows rotation is increasing. This storm is heading NE and will work itself into SW Harris County near Bellaire in the next 30-45 minutes.

[DoctorMu]

That storm Southwest of town is starting to look suspiciously supercelly

Was just about to mention that... If you're in the Sugar Land/Missouri City area... keep a close eye to the cell approaching your SW. Radar shows rotation is increasing. This storm is heading NE and will work itself into SW Harris County near Bellaire in the next 30-45 minutes.

I'm seeing a little right turn. NW Harris Co - keep your eyes and iPhones peeled.

[Belmer]

TORNADO WARNING for that storm to the SW of Harris County.

906
WFUS54 KHGX 312017
TORHGX
TXC157-201-312045-
/O.NEW.KHGX.TO.W.0009.181031T2017Z-181031T2045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
Issued by National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
317 PM CDT WED OCT 31 2018

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Northeastern Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
South central Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 345 PM CDT.

* At 317 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over southwestern Riverstone, or over First Colony,
moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
Northwestern Pearland, Sugar Land, Missouri City, eastern
Rosenberg, Stafford, Bellaire, Hunters Creek Village, Bunker Hill
Village, Piney Point Village, Town West, First Colony, Fresno,
Spring Branch West, Meadows Place, Hedwig Village, Arcola,
Thompsons, Westbury, New Territory and Westwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile
home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and
protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 2958 9537 2959 9538 2958 9539 2958 9543
2952 9544 2942 9560 2955 9574 2979 9553
2959 9535
TIME...MOT...LOC 2017Z 226DEG 16KT 2955 9561

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

[unome]

https://twitter.com/iembot_hgx

gusting to 25mph in Austin, 21mph in Caldwell, 25mph in Bay City, 30mph Port Lavaca
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/mwmap2.php ... =0&limit=1

winds at different levels
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 32.69,2827
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 32.69,2827
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 32.69,2827

[srainhoutx]

Folks in Austin, Waller and W/NW Harris County need to keep an eye out as well. The cell approaching SW Austin County may take on super cellular characteristics as well