Hurricane Alex. 40 Miles NNE of La Pesca. 100 MPH/948MB

[srainhoutx]

Possible center. Waiting for vortex message...and then going to bed!

02:54:30Z 19.233N 91.217W 924.8 mb
(~ 27.31 inHg) 608 meters
(~ 1,995 feet) 991.0 mb
(~ 29.26 inHg)

[Ptarmigan]

I wonder why they did not issue a tropical storm warning for Yucatan Peninsula since tropical storm force winds could be felt there.

[texoz]

I've been impressed with the size of this system. For storm that took a long time to form, and has yet to reach hurricane status, it has an enormous footprint. However, the latest sat images look like it's getting squeezed a bit from the NW.

[srainhoutx]

I've been impressed with the size of this system. For storm that took a long time to form, and has yet to reach hurricane status, it has an enormous footprint. However, the latest sat images look like it's getting squeezed a bit from the NW.

[Mr. T]

The 0z GFS through 78 is at the same position as the 18z run. No changes to the track so far...

[wxdata]

I sure hope Ed is right on landfall being far from Houston. Did anyone catch Ch. 13's on-air met a few minutes ago? He said their futurecast is showing a more northerly movement toward the Upper Texas coast. He also intimated that he would not be surprised to see the NHC cone move further north at the 4am udpdate.

That's a forecast model they run locally. Channel 11 calls theirs "Super Microcast." Both forecasts come from raw data right off the NAM. When Ike was heading our way, the NAM kept forecasting a hit near Matagorda Bay, so we never could air the forecast. If you believe in the NAM's forecast, then you'll buy right into channel 13's forecast..

[Andrew]

Operational GFS south of Galveston:

[Mr. T]

The parallel GFS shifted south and shows a landfall south of Brownsville

OP GFS looks the same, Upper Texas Coast hit

[redfish1]

when is the next model run coming out?

[Andrew]

The parallel GFS shifted south and shows a landfall south of Brownsville

OP GFS looks the same, Upper Texas Coast hit

Thing is it still has the trof digging hard

[srainhoutx]

when is the next model run coming out?

Models will run until around 2 ish...(AM)

[Snowman]

this storm looks to have stalled out. i dont believe any model predicted that. would this give more time for the trough to dig and make a northerly track more likely?

[Mr. T]

Pretty big shift south by the 0z parallel GFS



Euro is probably the winner, here...

[txsnowmaker]

I sure hope Ed is right on landfall being far from Houston. Did anyone catch Ch. 13's on-air met a few minutes ago? He said their futurecast is showing a more northerly movement toward the Upper Texas coast. He also intimated that he would not be surprised to see the NHC cone move further north at the 4am udpdate.

That's a forecast model they run locally. Channel 11 calls theirs "Super Microcast." Both forecasts come from raw data right off the NAM. When Ike was heading our way, the NAM kept forecasting a hit near Matagorda Bay, so we never could air the forecast. If you believe in the NAM's forecast, then you'll buy right into channel 13's forecast..

Thanks wxdata. I didn't realize these were mirror spit-outs of the NAM. Based on what has been said about the NAM in the past regarding events more than a day or so away, I definitely have reservations about putting a lot of credibility into that one at this point in time.

[Andrew]

hmm parallel GFS sends it back out to sea:




Also Tyler you know it is too early to say who is the winner and is almost foolish. I believe that a Texas strike is very well possible and what if the Euro shifts north tonight what then? I think it is a flip at this point.

[srainhoutx]

this storm looks to have stalled out. i dont believe any model predicted that. would this give more time for the trough to dig and make a northerly track more likely?

Welcome. That is the big question. NHC has stated they expected Alex to be a slow mover.

[srainhoutx]

Good night folks. Tomorrow is another day. Have fun night crew...

[Mr. T]

hmm parallel GFS sends it back out to sea:

Check the 850 vorticity. The main low has moved well inland by that point. That is just leftover low pressure in the Gulf

Also Tyler you know it is too early to say who is the winner and is almost foolish. I believe that a Texas strike is very well possible and what if the Euro shifts north tonight what then? I think it is a flip at this point.

I'm not saying that we should completely let our guard down, but the evidence is really against the GFS at this point... With its own parallel run flipping to the Euro's thinking, I wouldn't expect the Euro to shift much tonight. Interestingly, the 12z Euro shifted a little south of the 0z Euro landfall point.

Indeed, there is stil the remote chance of there being enough of a weakness across Texas to pull this north.

[Scott747]

The parallel GFS is further S on this run. Doesn't take it back out into the Gulf as it dissipates over Mexico.

[Stormrider]

G'night srain.Catch you in the AM