AUGUST 2018 - Scatterd Showers/Storms To End August

[srainhoutx]

Wednesday evening briefing from Jeff:

There has been little mention of the Atlantic tropics thus far this hurricane season…even though we are already on our “E” storm. Most of the storms have been focused in the sub-tropical north Atlantic away from the generally hostile conditions in the deep tropics and far removed from any land interaction.

However conditions are starting to slowly change and as is usual for mid August conditions are becoming more favorable for the development of tropical systems in the deep tropics or that region between Africa and the Caribbean Sea.

99L:
A tropical wave roughly 850 miles east of the southern Windward Islands has shown an increase in deep convection today. This convection (thunderstorms) remains fairly disorganized at this time. Significant amounts of Saharan Air (dusty air from the deserts of N Africa) have been generally keeping the formation of convection to a minimum for the last 2 months, but 99L has found itself far to the south (near 8N) and mainly south of the dusty air across the mid Atlantic. This system has also found itself near/under a building ridge of high pressure aloft and removed from the anomalous strong wind shear thus far this year across the Caribbean Sea and Atlantic

Conditions appear at least marginally favorable for some slow develop of this feature as it move W to WNW over the next 48-72 hours.

There is little to no model support for this feature to develop, but we shall see what the 00Z and 12Z models suggest. At the 800pm TWO this evening the Hurricane Center is giving this system a 20% chance of development over the next 5 days as it moves generally toward the eastern Caribbean Sea.

Reminder: it is important as we move into the heart of hurricane season to get information from trusted sources especially on social media. Posts showing where a storm could be 7-9 days from now and at some level of intensity should not be believed and it is important to refrain from sharing such posts without proper context.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 160921
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
421 AM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Southeast Texas will continue to see low mainly daytime
rain chances (mainly central and south) for the remain-
der of the week and over the weekend as weak mid/upper
level ridging remains in place. Look for near normal to
slightly above normal temperatures to persist. Gradually
increasing rain chances are still in the forecast for
much of the area next week as the ridging shifts off to
the west. This pattern change might bring a slow moving
cold front into the area toward the middle to end of the
week that could become a focus for better storm coverage.

42

&&

.MARINE...
Typical summertime marine wx pattern will continue into the weekend.
Light to moderate onshore winds will prevail. Gradient tightens a
touch on Sun/Mon so anticipate a slight bump in wind speeds and
seas, but still likely below SCEC thresholds. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
Can`t rule out some patchy/intermittent MVFR cigs into mid
morning...but overall would expect VFR conditions should persist
thru most of the TAF period. Isolated shra/tsra will again be
possible across the southern half of the CWA today. Debating whether
to add some VCSH`s to the 12z TAFs for the Houston terminals
between 21-24z. 47

&&

.CLIMATE...
At this time last year, Galveston was experiencing very warm overnight
low temperatures. The 16th was the 3rd of five consecutive days when
the low temperature do not fall below 84 degrees. Dating back to 1874,
the 85 degrees observed on the 16th tied for the all-time record high
minimum temperature on record.

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 97 75 97 75 97 / 10 10 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 95 77 94 77 94 / 10 10 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 89 82 89 82 89 / 20 10 20 10 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[srainhoutx]

Thanks Doug Delony for getting us back up and running. Doug will be doing some needed behind the scenes work on the platform. Thanks again, Doug!

[tireman4]

HGX Update

[Cromagnum]

Long range models sniffing it out.
https://i.imgur.com/BmM1qRM.png

[BlueJay]

Thanks Doug Delony for getting us back up and running. Doug will be doing some needed behind the scenes work on the platform. Thanks again, Doug!

Thank you Doug and srain!

[jasons2k]

Thank for for getting us back online!

The weather is pretty boring this week. It is August. At least there is some rain on the radar most days - that's good.

Today's Air Quality Index down in Tampa: 1 - yes, one. Amazing.

[jasons2k]

Got a nice, welcome shower of .22"

[DoctorMu]

Thanks Doug Delony for getting us back up and running. Doug will be doing some needed behind the scenes work on the platform. Thanks again, Doug!

Thank you Doug and srain!

Thanks Doug, srain - this is the best area Wx site around!

[DoctorMu]

Thank for for getting us back online!

The weather is pretty boring this week. It is August. At least there is some rain on the radar most days - that's good.

Today's Air Quality Index down in Tampa: 1 - yes, one. Amazing.

No petrochemical industry and frequent rain will do that!

[srainhoutx]

NWS Houston‏Verified account @NWSHouston · 44m44 minutes ago
#Todayinhistory a Cat 4 made landfall near Galveston Aug 17 1915. 16 ft of storm surge and 120+ mph winds!

[srainhoutx]

And one year ago today...

Eric Blake ‏Verified account @EricBlake12 · 3m3 minutes ago
What a difference a year makes! One year ago today Harvey was forming and NHC was monitoring 3 potential Atlantic systems. This year- one low chance- amazing change

[jasons2k]

No petrochemical industry and frequent rain will do that!

Speaking of rainfall and the petrochemical industry, here is a recent article on some of the effects from Harvey:
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/s ... 152511.php

[srainhoutx]

Looks like the pattern is changing from very localized downpours to a scattered rain/storm solution as Sunday arrives and possibly extending into next week. A weak "cold" front is penciled in to drape across SE Texas around Tuesday. The longer range models suggest an inverted trough that may be some remnant moisture from 99L arrives later next week. No tropical mischief expected, just some beneficial rain. My yard is dry...

[Texaspirate11]

With no storms in the Atlantic I found this article interesting
The forgotten chapter of Harvey one year ago, today.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... storm-2017

[MontgomeryCoWx]

12 days until College Football starts and roughly 3 weeks from our “average” first cold front!

Things will be much better soon.

[unome]

12 days until College Football starts and roughly 3 weeks from our “average” first cold front!

Things will be much better soon.

thank you, I feel much better now

[jasons2k]

It’s turning out to be a hot end to the summer. The heat index has been getting up there. Yesterday felt torrid in the sun by the neighborhood pool.

I hope this upcoming El Niño keeps us from having any major severe cold outbreaks this winter. The big freeze last year knocked us down by a whole hardiness zone. I was in Galveston last week and noticed all the zone 10 palms are gone. Even quite a few queen palms were torched - all the way down there. That’s pretty bad for the island. Up here, I’d estimate over 90% of the Queen palms were killed. The only ones I’ve seen alive were protected by the wind on the south side of a building or house. I have one neighbor who had seven around his pool and his back yard now is nothing but dead stumps. All the palm trees at my old house - dead and gone too.

Hard freezes do indeed have consequences in SE Texas.

[redneckweather]

12 days until College Football starts and roughly 3 weeks from our “average” first cold front!

Things will be much better soon.

My man, that's my kind of talk right there. Roll Tide!

[DoctorMu]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
630 PM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

Mainly VFR expected this evening with any remaining convection
dissipating. Southerly winds should continue overnight but
dropping closer to 5 knots. There may be a mix of SCT/BKN MVFR
ceilings for KCLL/KUTS/KCXO like the last couple of mornings.
Think the Houston terminals stay VFR with SCT low clouds. Main
concern tomorrow to watch will be thunderstorm development. There
is not enough confidence yet to put a mention in the TAFS, but
something to monitor new forecast data for in 06Z update.

Overpeck

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 353 PM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018/...

.DISCUSSION...
A few showers and thunderstorms have popped up across the area
this afternoon but should dissipate shortly after sunset. A band
of light showers and a thunderstorm or two are currently pushing
through Central and North TX ahead of the approaching cold front.
These showers/storms should dissipate well before reaching our
area tonight, however some showers and thunderstorms may be
possible along and ahead of the boundary during the day tomorrow.
Short term guidance has been relatively unimpressed with
convection tomorrow for the most part, likely because we`ll have
a bit of capping to overcome first.

The front itself won`t make great southward progress as the upper
level support ejects to the NE tomorrow night. However, the front
may be able to slowly sink into the area tomorrow night into
Tuesday, providing a focus for showers and thunderstorms before
ultimately washing out. The last couple of GFS runs have come
into agreement with the ECMWF solution of building the ridge back
in after the front. As such, the forecast maintains very low PoPs
during this late-week period. The ridge begins to slide northward
a bit heading into the weekend, which could allow a slight chance
for showers and thunderstorms to return to the forecast this
weekend.

Heat will continue to be a concern because it`s August in SE
Texas. Heat index values are forecast mostly in the 102-107 degree
range for the next day or two before improving somewhat with the
slightly drier conditions arriving with the front. A few sites
could briefly reach 108 during the afternoon tomorrow or Tuesday
along the sea breeze, but the breezy conditions in the wake of the
sea breeze will help offset this. 11



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 79 97 77 98 74 / 10 30 30 20 10
Houston (IAH) 79 95 78 96 76 / 10 20 20 30 10
Galveston (GLS) 83 93 82 93 81 / 20 10 10 30 20