JUNE 2018: Drying Trend & Summer Heat Returns

[jasons2k]

The HRRR is almost done. So it went from having me almost dry, in-between bands, to now having the center of a band right on top of me and over 6" in the next 16 hours.

[sau27]

The HRRR is almost done. So it went from having me almost dry, in-between bands, to now having the center of a band right on top of me and over 6" in the next 16 hours.

Not sure which run of the HRRR you are looking at but the 20z doesn't show that kind of rain. Are you looking at the NAM 3km?

[jasons2k]

The HRRR is almost done. So it went from having me almost dry, in-between bands, to now having the center of a band right on top of me and over 6" in the next 16 hours.

Not sure which run of the HRRR you are looking at but the 20z doesn't show that kind of rain. Are you looking at the NAM 3km?

Narrow band of 5.5" over South Central Montgomery County, looks like a spike of over 6" in southern Brazoria...So I guess not over 6" up here:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1920&fh=18

[Andrew]

Seems like Beaumont area will get more tonight is that right Andrew ?

Everyone will have a chance to get some more but the atmosphere is pretty worked over and the trough located off the coast is focusing a lot of the convection there so I think Beaumont may be able to get a little bit of a break. With that said PWATs are still pretty high so we will have to keep an eye on any precipitation due to how saturated the ground already is.

[davidiowx]

I can’t comain. I’ve had a little over 2” today in Richmond. It was certainly needed. Hopefully everyone can get some!

[DoctorMu]

Stick a fork in it for areas south and Southwest of Houston. Looks like I'll be dragging out the GD water hose for yet another weekend.

I'd glady drag out the GD hose than be in the Golden Triangle taking on water. Surprising how insensitive some are after most of us went through Harvey.

Hoping for 6-7" of rain over a 3-4 day spread is completely different than hoping for a flood. Nobody was hoping for 10+ in a day like Beaumont and the surrounding area just received, at least that's not how I'm reading it. Droughts can be extremely dangerous and this system has potential to stave that off for the time being.

Yeah, 2011 is still a nightmare in my head. Obviously, flooding presents immediate hazards to life, so we hope for moderation for all, if Mother Nature will cooperate.

[snowman65]

Stick a fork in it for areas south and Southwest of Houston. Looks like I'll be dragging out the GD water hose for yet another weekend.

I'd glady drag out the GD hose than be in the Golden Triangle taking on water. Surprising how insensitive some are after most of us went through Harvey.

This is hardly a Harvey situation for one. Secondly, my area has not had meaningful rain since early April, save for a bad storm that blew everyone's fence down. It's not fun to have clay soil pulled 1-2 inches from your foundation, fences leaning because the soil shriveled from it, and trees and lawn all trying to die.

Tell that to to people here that just finished getting their homes close to move in and flooded again today....yeah...it's a harvey situation again for some.

[jasons2k]

Latest HRRR has me at 1". Go figure.

[jasons2k]

Looking at satellite and radar, looks like it decoupled to me...thought it was happening a few hours again but now it's pretty apparent.

[Andrew]

This is a warning to everyone to keep the conversation civil and to focus on what is going on now. We can debate who got how much rain and comparison to previous storms later. As for now let's keep the conversation on track and keep the information beneficial for everyone visiting the forum.

[Ptarmigan]

With tropical moisture, there tend to be more rain at night. Rainfall forecasts model do forecast the rain amount correctly for the most part. Getting the location on the other hand is a different story.

[FreeportTX35]

How much rain is left out in the gulf?

[unome]

Looking at satellite and radar, looks like it decoupled to me...thought it was happening a few hours again but now it's pretty apparent.

can you (or someone else) please explain "decoupling" for those who may be browsing the forum but not weather geeks like some - many thanks

[unome]

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
720 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-
335>338-201200-
Austin-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Coastal Brazoria-
Coastal Galveston-Coastal Harris-Coastal Jackson-
Coastal Matagorda-Colorado-Fort Bend-Grimes-Houston-
Inland Brazoria-Inland Galveston-Inland Harris-Inland Jackson-
Inland Matagorda-Madison-Montgomery-Northern Liberty-Polk-
San Jacinto-Southern Liberty-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
Wharton-
720 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Areas of rain with embedded showers and thunderstorms are possible.
Any locally heavy rain that develops may result in flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Periods of showers and thunderstorms will be possible through Thursday.
Any locally heavy rain that develops may result in flooding. Tropical
funnel clouds may also be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report rain totals or any flooding observed
to the National Weather Service.

$$

TXZ436>438-201200-
Brazoria Islands-Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula-
Matagorda Islands-
720 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Areas of rain with embedded showers and thunderstorms are possible.
Any locally heavy rain that develops may result in flooding.

A high rip current risk will exist along Gulf-facing beaches. Minor
tidal overwash will also be possible along Highway 87 on the Bolivar
Peninsula at times of high tide.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Periods of showers and thunderstorms will be possible through Thursday.
Any locally heavy rain that develops may result in flooding. Tropical
funnel clouds may also be possible.

A high rip current risk will be possible along Gulf-facing beaches through
Wednesday afternoon. Minor tidal overwash will also be possible along
Highway 87 on the Bolivar Peninsula at times of high tide.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report rain totals or any flooding observed
to the National Weather Service.

$$

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-201200-
Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out
20 NM-Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM-
Galveston Bay-Matagorda Bay-
Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to
60 NM-Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM-
720 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Areas of rain with embedded areas of showers and thunderstorms can be
expected. Locally heavy rainfall resulting in reduced visibilities,
gusty winds, and funnel clouds or waterspouts will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Periods of showers and thunderstorms will be possible through Thursday
and will be capable of locally heavy rainfall resulting in reduced
visibilities, gusty winds and funnel clouds or waterspouts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Mariners are encouraged to report any hazardous weather they observe
to the Coast Guard or National Weather Service.

$$

[unome]

a bit late, sorry - you can find all the LCH stuff here: https://twitter.com/iembot_lch

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
701 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2018

TXC245-361-200300-
/O.NEW.KLCH.FA.W.0008.180620T0001Z-180620T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Jefferson TX-Orange TX-
701 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2018

The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a

* Flood Warning for Urban Areas and Small Streams in...
Eastern Jefferson County in southeastern Texas...
Central Orange County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 1000 PM CDT.

* At 655 PM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
that heavy rain has ended this evening, with only light rain
lingering. However, today's additional rainfall of 4 to 6 inches
over saturated ground is still causing some runoff and drainage
issues within underpasses and low lying areas. This will slowly
drain this evening.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Beaumont, Port Arthur, Nederland, Groves, Port Neches, Vidor,
Bridge City, Central Gardens, Sabine Pass, Rose City, Pine Forest,
Port Acres, Orangefield, Southeast Texas Regional Airport and Sea
Rim State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

[srainhoutx]

Nearly 2 inches of rain in my gage since Sunday. Grateful for every drop. Sprinkler system was turned off Saturday and our A/C system has hardly operated which to me is a win win in Mid June.

[jasons2k]

Looking at satellite and radar, looks like it decoupled to me...thought it was happening a few hours again but now it's pretty apparent.

can you (or someone else) please explain "decoupling" for those who may be browsing the forum but not weather geeks like some - many thanks

It was trying to form some sort of surface low that was stacked with the mid-level center. The low level center or swirl continued on to the west, while it looked like the mid-level center shot more to the NNW, splitting off or decoupling. So it lost what little organization it had. There are little vortices all over the place now, and indication it's just a trough of low pressure at this point.

[Katdaddy]

The Flash Flood Watch for the Houston-Galveston areas expired at 7PM tonight. Some locally heavy rains will still be possible overnight and tomorrow.

We watched the heavy tropical rains train across the Beaumont-Port Arthurs area for a second day with one weather station in downtown Port Arthur recording 9.05” today for a 2 day total of 14.15”.

[DoctorMu]

Nearly 2 inches of rain in my gage since Sunday. Grateful for every drop. Sprinkler system was turned off Saturday and our A/C system has hardly operated which to me is a win win in Mid June.

Hoping for that tonight and tomorrow. Only 0.325 in. for the event with spotty, light showers so far. Cinch bugs have mounted a sneak attack on the side yard from my neighbors yard. Never can titrate this water just right. Going broke in the summer vs keeping the grass alive!

Need to roll double sixes for a nice, lasting bolus of rain.

[DoctorMu]

The steep gradient has been closer to the coast as expected. One more roll of the dice for we northern co. inland folks!