Hurricane Alex. 40 Miles NNE of La Pesca. 100 MPH/948MB

[Paul]

Alex should become a man in the next 24 hours.
Probably hurricane by Monday Night/Midnight.

IMO, We probably could stick with what models we have now. The motion of Alex over the next 24-36 hours will give us a MUCH better idea where he is headed. Tonight we will need to watch what motion he takes once he gets both feet back into the water. The initial direction will be key in which model becomes the winner of this unsolved mystery. Model watching will be fun tonight and tomorrow night then its pretty much a Nowcast situtation.

agreed....

[Bluefalcon]

We'll see how far north the NHC moves the track for the 4pm update.

[Paul]

NAM at 36...

[Mr. T]

We'll see how far north the NHC moves the track for the 4pm update.

They will probably give it another slight nudge to the right, but not much. The 12z Euro and UKMET still show a similar output as the 00z runs, and that is pretty much what the NHC is banking on at this point.

[Paul]

I agree Tyler another nudge to the north...split the 2 camps but still on the EURO side of things....

I know its the NAM ...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_042l.gif

[srainhoutx]

From Brownsville NWS...

.LONG TERM /7 AM TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...ALL EYES ON THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE/SOUTHWESTERN GULF FOR FUTURE EVOLUTION OF ALEX OVER
LONGER TERM PERIOD.

FORECAST CLUES: THE KEY TO THE LONG TERM MAY BE FOUND IN THE SHORT
TERM. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS A WEAK BUT NOTABLE
SHORT WAVE BENDING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS ROUNDING A BASE ALONG THE
NORTHERN TAMAULIPAS COAST BEFORE CURVING NORTHEAST ALONG AND EAST
OF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST. SURE ENOUGH...ALL 12Z MODELS
SHOW THE REMAINING DEPRESSION "FEELING" THIS TROUGH...AND NOW
DEPICT A 36 TO 48 HOUR TEMPORARY MOVEMENT NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF
ALONG/NEAR 92W. GIVEN THAT SATELLITE DATA ALSO SUGGEST AN
ELONGATION (FOR NOW) OF DEEPER MOISTURE...PERHAPS THIS IS A SIGNAL
FOR FUTURE MOVEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM.

SO...HOW DOES THIS AFFECT THE LONGER TERM BEYOND TUESDAY? NOBODY
KNOWS JUST YET. THE SHORT WAVE WILL HAVE PASSED ALEX BY AT THAT
TIME...AND LONGER WAVE TROUGHING FORECAST FOR THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S. WILL LIKELY MISS THE CYCLONE AS WELL UNLESS SOMEHOW IT CAN
ACCELERATE TOWARD 26N OR SO IN THE NEXT DAY AND A HALF. WITH A
RIDGE SLIDING/BUILDING ALONG A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST AXIS FROM THE
WESTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF THIS COULD SLOW ALEX TO A
CRAWL OVER SUITABLE WATERS FOR MODEST TO SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING. AT THIS POINT...MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE FINER SCALE
DATA PULLING BACK TO THE WEST (TEXAS/NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST) AND
THE GLOBAL MODELS FARTHER UP THE TEXAS COAST OR TOWARD LOUISIANA.

BOTTOM LINE: THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE TELLING. A PULL TO THE
NORTH PUTS MORE OF THE U.S. COASTLINE AT RISK IN DUE TIME...A
SEPARATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING WEST COULD SPARE IT.

FORECAST AND IMPACTS: BEFORE JUMPING INTO ANY CHANGES AND GIVEN
LOWER CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME FOR A SPECIFIC
TRACK...INTENSITY...AND TIMING...HAVE MADE VIRTUALLY NO CHANGES TO
AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST. IMPACTS THAT SHOULD OCCUR...NO MATTER WHERE
ALEX ULTIMATELY TRACKS...REMAIN:

INCREASING RAIN CHANCES...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY IN SQUALLS. STARTING
TUESDAY (SOMETIME) AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

LOWERED DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BUT HIGHER HUMIDITY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AT LEAST.

BUILDING WAVES AND GULF COASTAL "BACKGROUND" WINDS. HOW MUCH STILL
UNCERTAIN BUT HAVE BROUGHT BOATING CONDITIONS TOWARD ADVISORY
LEVELS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

GUT FEELING TELLS ME WE`LL HAVE A BETTER BEAT ON THIS SYSTEM IN
THE 2-3 DAY PERIOD THIS TIME MONDAY...BUT MUCH REMAINS TO BE
DETERMINED. AS ALWAYS...STAY TUNED.

[Paul]

From Wunderground..Jeff masters.....crap!

Morris Bender of the GFDL group has just provided me the track forecast from an improved experimental version of the GFDL that shows landfall between Corpus Christi and Galveston.

[Hardcoreweather]

Jeff Masters

Morris Bender of the GFDL group has just provided me the track forecast from an improved experimental version of the GFDL that shows landfall between Corpus Christi and Galveston.

Jeff Masters

[Paul]

HC....beat you to it....your getting slow my friend...

[Mr. T]

NHC shifted the 4 pm track slightly to the right, still many miles south of Brownsville

[Paul]

yes they did and that is telling....it says they cannot ignore the north camp models any longer regardless of the EURO...

[sleetstorm]

Tropical Storm Alex is still traveling nearly due west. Time is gradually running out for that thing to move closer to Texas and Louisiana.

[SusieinLP]

Well isn't that a fine howdy do? I am not quite on board with all this shift to the north but these new reports from Masters are not very comforting. I really need to mow the lawn and all that yard stuff but I can't seem to tear myself away from my computer.

[Paul]

Tropical Storm Alex is still traveling nearly due west. Time is gradually running out for that thing to move closer to Texas and Louisiana.

uh, the overall motion has been NW...

[Andrew]

Tropical Storm Alex is still traveling nearly due west. Time is gradually running out for that thing to move closer to Texas and Louisiana.

It is actually moving northwest

[Mr. T]

Tropical Storm Alex is still traveling nearly due west. Time is gradually running out for that thing to move closer to Texas and Louisiana.

It's not moving due west. Last two center fixes:

18.9N 90.7W
19.2N 90.9W

That's a .3N increase compared to a .2W increase.

Lets not just spit out misleading information here without evidence

[Paul]

the coordinates suggest Alex is now back over water....FWIW.....tonight is going to be interesting to see it get going again...

[houstongirl]

Just when I had counted Mr. Alex out...

[Paul]

NHC says to well....they went from a high confidence forecast to a below average forecast...

[srainhoutx]

NHC says to well....they went from a high confidence forecast to a below average forecast...

From the 4:00 PM Discussion...

THE INITIAL MOTION OF ALEX IS A LITTLE SLOWER...WITH A 12-HR AVERAGE
YIELDING AN ESTIMATE OF 300/8. THE PIVOTAL QUESTION FOR THE
LONG-TERM FORECAST TRACK OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE APPEARS TO HINGE
ON THE STRENGTH OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
THE MODELS THAT SHOW A WEAKER RIDGE...SUCH AS THE CMC/GFS/HWRF...
ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND
NORTH AND APPROACH THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST IN SEVERAL DAYS.
OTHER MODELS...SUCH AS THE ECMWF/UKMET/NOGAPS...HAVE A STRONGER
RIDGE AND KEEP ALEX MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST INTO
MEXICO. OVERALL THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE. SINCE THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD...THIS TRACK
FORECAST IS THOUGHT TO BE OF BELOW-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.