JUNE 2018: Drying Trend & Summer Heat Returns

[unome]

WPC has the bullseye over middle TX coast, Rockport to Port O'Connor

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d13_fill.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpfloop.html

http://maps8.pivotalweather.com/maps/wp ... .us_sc.png

[djmike]

Was thinking the same thing Doctormu! Been model watching for several days now and Beaumont was never a bullseye for heavy training rains. Most I had seen was 2-4 in 5 days. Houston and westward were the hefty rains. Just proves that these systems have a mind of their own and do what they want. Seen this happen too many times which is why we say to stay weather aware and stay tuned the your local nws. We sure didnt see this coming for the beaumont area. Thats for sure! Stay safe everyone! Your turn may be tomorrow! Ps. We are getting so gusty winds with this latest train! Not bad kaybe 30-35mph, but just another reminder to never trust anything tropical. Anything can happen!

[Ptarmigan]

WPC has the bullseye over middle TX coast, Rockport to Port O'Connor

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d13_fill.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpfloop.html

http://maps8.pivotalweather.com/maps/wp ... .us_sc.png

Those forecast models do get rain amount correct, but location on the other hand..............

[djmike]

WPC has the bullseye over middle TX coast, Rockport to Port O'Connor

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d13_fill.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpfloop.html

http://maps8.pivotalweather.com/maps/wp ... .us_sc.png

Those forecast models do get rain amount correct, but location on the other hand..............

They certainly were on point during harvey, but todays storms and with this system, Im having a hard time believing middle tx coast. May still be correct after all of this pans out, but it still shows nothing like what we got today and still are getting and look to be getting all night long here in a beaumont. Imo.

[unome]

a bad time for Brownsville radar to have trouble also

when their radar pops on, it looks a lot stormier dowm toward Corpus

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?type=SE_ ... verDim=100

[unome]

a better view further out - there's a lot of stuff off shore of S TX, just not showing on radar

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... colorbars=

[javakah]

a better view further out - there's a lot of stuff off shore of S TX, just not showing on radar

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... colorbars=

Just based upon some visual inspection of GOES-16, it sure looks like a new band has been forming on the south side of the system, that's closer in than the one that has been hammering Beaumont. Northern Matagorda (or just north of there) bullseye for tomorrow?

[jasons2k]

It may be a good thing, but like a giant dome over Houston area right now.

[TexasBreeze]

Northwest of I-69 (59) hits a wall of nothing. Hrrr keeps insisting the mass east of Hou comes this way overnight, but things appear to be winding down. Cloud tops are warming except for east of Brownsville in the Gulf. Gfs has been consistent in nothing extreme...

[davidiowx]

It may be a good thing, but like a giant dome over Houston area right now.

You aren’t kidding. Appears that another band is going to set up shop down towards the Victoria area. Skipping right over Houston. I’m basing this off of radar watching at the moment.

[Cromagnum]

Maybe tomorrow is Houston's turn. Need more than this measly amount of rain.

[Ptarmigan]

WPC has the bullseye over middle TX coast, Rockport to Port O'Connor

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d13_fill.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpfloop.html

http://maps8.pivotalweather.com/maps/wp ... .us_sc.png

Those forecast models do get rain amount correct, but location on the other hand..............

They certainly were on point during harvey, but todays storms and with this system, Im having a hard time believing middle tx coast. May still be correct after all of this pans out, but it still shows nothing like what we got today and still are getting and look to be getting all night long here in a beaumont. Imo.

So true. When I saw the rainfall total forecast for Harvey, I was horrified because I have never seen such totals forecasted. Forecast models for this storm is all over the place.

[unome]

radar alternative
https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical
via
https://nowcoast.noaa.gov/


flash flood warning on mid-TX coast - those WPC folks are pretty smart
https://www.weather.gov/crp/

another 2 days of nail biting for some TX folks
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/index.php#page=ero

[unome]

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0325
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
440 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST TX

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 190840Z - 191440Z

SUMMARY...CONCENTRATED AREAS OF VERY HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS WITH
FLASH FLOODING LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...GOES-16 10.3 MICRON/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF VERY COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL TX IN ASSOCIATION WITH VERY HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ORGANIZING NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE RELATIVELY
COMPACT MID LEVEL LOW CENTER. IN FACT...THE CONVECTION IS IN THE
PROCESS OF BECOMING HIGHLY CONCENTRATED ACROSS REFUGIO AND GOLIAD
COUNTIES TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI WITH EVIDENCE OF
AN MCV SHOWING UP IN AREA DUAL-POL RADAR IMAGERY.
MEANWHILE...FARTHER NORTHEAST UP ALONG THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TX
COAST...THERE ARE MULTIPLE BANDS OF SOMEWHAT WARMER TOPPED
CONVECTION ADVANCING NORTHWEST IN OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE LARGER SCALE SET-UP ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS GENERALLY THE
SAME AS A FEW HOURS AGO...EXCEPT THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER
CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN UP WITH STRONGER MID LEVEL FORCING AND ALSO
MORE PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENT FLOW
IN OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHERE THE AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE. IN FACT...A WELL-DEFINED INSTABILITY GRADIENT IS
NOTED RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TX COASTLINE WITH OFFSHORE MUCAPE
VALUES OF 2000+ J/KG.

PWATS REMAIN VERY HIGH AND GENERALLY BETWEEN 2.3 AND 2.5 INCHES
BASED ON HOURLY GPS-DERIVED DATA WHICH AGAIN WILL MAINTAIN HIGHLY
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES FOR ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES AND
ESPECIALLY WITH THE CONCENTRATION OF MOISTURE SEEN IN THE 500/300
MB LAYER AS PER THE CIRA-LPW DATA. EXPECT RAINFALL RATES OF AS
MUCH AS 3 INCHES/HR LOCALLY AND ESPECIALLY WITH THE CONVECTION
TIED IN CLOSE TO THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER THIS MORNING.

THE HRRR/HRRRX GUIDANCE SUPPORTS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4
TO 6 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX...WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS OF AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 INCHES FARTHER UP THE COAST TOWARD
THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON METROPOLITAN AREA. GIVEN THESE AMOUNTS AND
SOME OF THE EARLIER HEAVY RAINS...FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...EWX...HGX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

[unome]

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=1

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
430 AM EDT Tue Jun 19 2018

Day 1
Valid 12Z Tue Jun 19 2018 - 12Z Wed Jun 20 2018

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND ALSO OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...Southern and Southeast Texas over to Southwest Louisiana...
The latest radar and satellite imagery continues to show an axis
of heavy showers and thunderstorms over
the Texas coast from Corpus Christi to Houston. The convection is
focusing within a convergent low level flow pattern
between an inverted sfc-700 mb trough drifting inland from coastal
Texas. Facilitating this is a nose of enhanced instability with
MLCAPE values on the order of 1000 to 2000 j/kg. A Moderate Risk
is in effect for portions of this area given the earlier heavy
rains and additional threat of several more inches today shown in
the high res windows and UKMET.

Tropical moisture will continue to stream onshore today, with
precipitable water values of 2.3 to 2.5 inches (around record
values for mid June) as deep layer cyclonic flow persists across
southeast Texas. Heavy rains will be focused areas of 700/850 mb
convergence and 300 mb divergence in southeast Texas. The
guidance led by the HREF mean and the recent HRRR/HRRRX guidance
would favor areas of southeast Texas seeing the highest potential
for heavy rainfall, including convective redevelopment closer in
toward the tightening mid level low circulation.

QPF was based on the high res ensemble mean and 00Z UKMET/00z
Canadian regional gem. The 00Z GFS continues to be much below
guidance consensus with lift and thus QPF and with minimal use in
the QPF. The primary outlier in the convective allowing models
was the WRF NMMB, which moves the mid level center about 100 nm
further inland and rain focused all the way to the Rio Grande
Valley.

A MODERATE RISK of excessive rainfall was maintained for the
central and eastern TX gulf coast, with flash flood guidance
likely to drop following rainfall occurring the next several hours
in the Corpus Christi to Houston Corridor.
High available moisture and several high res models indicating
multiple inches of of rain add to the threat.

[Katdaddy]

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
351 AM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

TXZ213-214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>438-200000-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.A.0003.180619T0851Z-180620T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Brazoria Islands-Chambers-Coastal Brazoria-Coastal Galveston-
Coastal Harris-Coastal Jackson-Coastal Matagorda-Fort Bend-
Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula-Inland Brazoria-
Inland Galveston-Inland Harris-Inland Jackson-Inland Matagorda-
Matagorda Islands-Southern Liberty-Wharton-
Including the cities of Alvin, Anahuac, Angleton, Bay City,
Baytown, Clute, Devers, Dickinson, Edna, El Campo, First Colony,
Freeport, Friendswood, Galveston, Ganado, Houston, La Marque,
Lake Jackson, League City, Mission Bend, Missouri City,
Mont Belvieu, Old River-Winfree, Palacios, Pasadena, Pearland,
Pecan Grove, Rosenberg, Stowell, Sugar Land, Surfside Beach,
Texas City, Wharton, and Winnie
351 AM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of south central Texas and
southeast Texas...including the following counties...in south
central Texas...Coastal Jackson and Inland Jackson. In
southeast Texas...Brazoria Islands...Chambers...Coastal
Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal
Matagorda...Fort Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar
Peninsula...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland
Harris...Inland Matagorda...Matagorda Islands...Southern
Liberty and Wharton.

* Through this evening

* Periods of heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding will be
possible across the watch area through this evening with a storm
system located over the Middle Texas coast. Widespread flash
flooding is not expected, but bands of heavy rain that set up
and rotate across Southeast Texas may produce swaths of flash
flooding as they repeatedly move across the same areas.

* Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches are expected in the
watch area, but localized higher amounts of 4-6 inches within
heavier bands of rainfall are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

[djmike]

Unbelievable. We are being hammered again this morning here in Beaumont. FFWARNING just issued again til 745am and likely extended. FFWATCH issued for all day today...Another training band headed for us direct from the gulf. Debating whether I should attempt to get to work this morning. Prayers for everyone being affected or will be affected later on...

Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Warning
TXC245-361-191245-
/O.NEW.KLCH.FF.W.0025.180619T0938Z-180619T1245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
438 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2018

The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Jefferson County in southeastern Texas...
Southwestern Orange County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 745 AM CDT.

* At 437 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain across the
warned area. Five to seven inches of rain have fallen. Flash
flooding is expected to begin shortly.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Beaumont, Port Arthur, Nederland, Groves, Port Neches, Sabine Pass,
Central Gardens, La Belle, Port Acres, Southeast Texas Regional
Airport and Sea Rim State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you
can do so safely.

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring.
If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately.
Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate
precautions to protect life and property.

&&

LAT...LON 3017 9426 3017 9411 3002 9402 2998 9385
2993 9386 2986 9393 2984 9392 2985 9394
2984 9395 2982 9394 2983 9392 2981 9393
2981 9395 2980 9394 2977 9393 2976 9390
2968 9385 2968 9402 2962 9420

$$

Jones

[mcheer23]

Maybe we'll see the radar finally fill in over Houston During the morning hours...

[Cromagnum]

Yawn. Looks like another day of dry slotting for Houston. Guess we need to wait on the next tropical wave.

[unome]

what's with all the flashes on GOES-16 lately ? What does the Magnetometer (status yellow) do, anyone know?

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Operations/GOES/status.html
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... colorbars=

all I find is a software patch
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SATS/messages.html
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Operations/GO ... patch.html