JUNE 2018: Drying Trend & Summer Heat Returns

[ticka1]

Starting our June topic being a little over two weeks away.

[Texaspirate11]

eventually it will rain....

[jasons2k]

Well the May forecast was supposed to be wetter then normal. We see how that worked out...

[ticka1]

eventually it will rain....

promise? yes it will just hope its not in form of tropical system

[Texaspirate11]

[quote="jasons"]Well the May forecast was supposed to be wetter then normal. We see how that worked out...[/

i heard we were to be high & dry thru May...yeah it worked out.

[Texaspirate11]

eventually it will rain....

promise? yes it will just hope its not in form of tropical system

Ticka I'm not thinking we'll get a major cane this year if we go by history.
Houston has never been hit with 2 major canes back to back - so now that i say that LOL
Wont rule out a TS though - and yes It Only Takes One and I'm Ms. Over prepared anyway

[jasons2k]

Well the May forecast was supposed to be wetter then normal. We see how that worked out...

i heard we were to be high & dry thru May...yeah it worked out.

Look at Page 2 of the May thread. Big bullseye of wetness over Texas from the CPC. It verified so far for the Hill Country areas but not for us...

[jasons2k]

eventually it will rain....

promise? yes it will just hope its not in form of tropical system

Ticka I'm not thinking we'll get a major cane this year if we go by history.
Houston has never been hit with 2 major canes back to back - so now that i say that LOL
Wont rule out a TS though - and yes It Only Takes One and I'm Ms. Over prepared anyway

The Upper Texas coast and Houston did not get hit by a land falling hurricane last year. Harvey made landfall on the middle Texas coast near Aransas Pass. So even though we got the flood after landfall, climatologically, we did not record a hit.

It doesn’t matter anyway. The atmosphere doesn’t have a memory. Four hurricanes hit Florida in 2005 (a first). There is no such thing as ‘safety’ or ‘immunity’ because of what happened last year.

[Ptarmigan]

eventually it will rain....

promise? yes it will just hope its not in form of tropical system

Ticka I'm not thinking we'll get a major cane this year if we go by history.
Houston has never been hit with 2 major canes back to back - so now that i say that LOL
Wont rule out a TS though - and yes It Only Takes One and I'm Ms. Over prepared anyway

Major hurricanes have hit back to back in Southeast Texas. Try 1880s and 1940s.

1886 Indianola Hurricane
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1886_Indianola_hurricane

Texas-Louisiana Hurricane of 1886
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1886_Atla ... ricane_Ten

1941 Texas hurricane
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1941_Texas_hurricane

1942 Matagorda hurricane
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1942_Matagorda_hurricane

They were initially not classified as major hurricanes until recently. Get this, two hurricanes hit Southeast Texas a week apart in 1942.

1942 Hurricane Season
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1942_Atla ... ane_season

[DoctorMu]

promise? yes it will just hope its not in form of tropical system

Ticka I'm not thinking we'll get a major cane this year if we go by history.
Houston has never been hit with 2 major canes back to back - so now that i say that LOL
Wont rule out a TS though - and yes It Only Takes One and I'm Ms. Over prepared anyway

The Upper Texas coast and Houston did not get hit by a land falling hurricane last year. Harvey made landfall on the middle Texas coast near Aransas Pass. So even though we got the flood after landfall, climatologically, we did not record a hit.

It doesn’t matter anyway. The atmosphere doesn’t have a memory. Four hurricanes hit Florida in 2005 (a first). There is no such thing as ‘safety’ or ‘immunity’ because of what happened last year.

Luck of the draw. IF El Nino kicks in we may see more shear, reducing TS severity and development. We'll see.

[Texaspirate11]

Good catch on the back to back storms
But I've done extensive research - and I'll be very surprised if we get hit
(dont know how i missed what you posted!)
I'm more worried about drought.

[unome]

the 1st full week of June looks brutal

https://weather.com/weather/monthly/l/USTX0321:1:US

[DoctorMu]

the 1st full week of June looks brutal

https://weather.com/weather/monthly/l/USTX0321:1:US

Early June forecast looks pretty bleak still. GFS offers hope on the far horizon with a cold front sagging this way around June 9th. A sliver of hope is about all I've got!




I should add if we do get a front draped across the northern Gulf, watch the tropics.

For now, we'll continue to default to drought.

[Ptarmigan]

the 1st full week of June looks brutal

https://weather.com/weather/monthly/l/USTX0321:1:US

Early June forecast looks pretty bleak still. GFS offers hope on the far horizon with a cold front sagging this way around June 9th. A sliver of hope is about all I've got!




I should add if we do get a front draped across the northern Gulf, watch the tropics.

For now, we'll continue to default to drought.

Hopefully this is does hold up.

[DoctorMu]

Sunday may be our best chance of rain for another week+

GFS has another (S)TS in the Gulf, tracking Alberto, in mid June. Seriously, we need a nice tropical wave - no storm or hurricane, please!

[ticka1]

dont even have sea breeze showers reminds so much of the severe drought.

[jojotheidiotclown]

This is the best weather! The heat and sun is back baby!!! This winter was brutal and this makes up for it.

[jasons2k]

Not too bothered by the heat (yet) but I would like to see rain in the forecast. Things are drying out again.

[tireman4]

Please stay cool and watch your fluid intake

[jasons2k]

I sure hope we get some rain on Sunday. It will be our last chance for a long time.

From today's NWS AFD:

We`ll be watching a weak front that`ll sag into se Tx during the day Sunday. PW`s pool to around 2" right along the boundary. During the late afternoon and evening hours there`s a possibility that the seabreeze and the front "collide" somewhere across the southern half of se Tx. Whether or not there will be enough convergence to overcome the cap remains to be seen. But if it does, chances are that any storms that do pop may be strong/severe with winds being primary threat. Most favorable timeframe should this happen looks to be 3-9pm or so.