jasons wrote:I posted this in the Hurricane Forum, but since nothing else is going on, thought I'd post it here too, as the coming El Nino will affect our weather in other ways as well:
MontgomeryCoWx wrote:The doldrums of May through mid September in SE TX.
110 days until Meteorological Fall.
Yeah...it's like can we just make it to the following markers:
• SEC Media Days - July 16
• First Day of football practice - Aug 1
• First Game - Aug 30
Amen... going to have a “one for the ages” tailgate for the Clemson game. I have 40-50 Clemson friends coming in and I’m hiring the bartenders from the Stella to serve and create cocktails. Lord help me if we win. I may have to take off the first half of the next work week.
More of the same, but the discussion was too good to skip:
Let`s review some Texas weather forecasting rules of thumb. First
all floods end in drought and all droughts end in floods. Second
when in drought, forecast more drought until it starts to rain -
when in flood, forecast more flood until it stops raining.
Drought monitor has some abnormal dryness and moderate drought to the southwest of Houston. But Houston IAH is 2.55 inches below normal rainfall since March 1 and 0.34 inches below for the year.
Houston HOU is down 3.65 inches below normal since March 1 and
3.49 inches below normal for the year. Given the current analysis
and forecast data going forward, there is little chance if any at
precipitation over the next 7 days.
Some patchy fog across SE TX this morning will burn off this morning as mostly sunny hot weather continue across SE TX through the weekend. Record high temps in the mid 90s are likely Wednesday and Thursday.
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I guess I have been lucky this Spring season. I don't monitor my rain gauge much but my garden has been flooded 3 times this Spring. This past Sunday was the first time I gave it a light watering. The ground is still holding good moisture and no signs of anything drying out. I'm surprised signs of drought are showing up around me because I have seen nothing of the sort. The San Jacinto River up this way has come up to the banks twice this Spring and has come up 5 feet on 3 different occasions. Of course with a dry forecast in the extended and temps in the 90's, it won't take long for things to dry up around here pretty quick.
Mesoscale Discussion 0428
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 PM CDT Tue May 15 2018
Areas affected... Portions of western and southwestern Texas
Concerning... Severe potential... Watch possible
Valid 151851Z - 152045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance... 40 percent
SUMMARY... Thunderstorms posing a threat for severe hail and severe wind gusts are expected to develop in the next few hours. Although storm coverage should be low, a Watch may be needed.
DISCUSSION...A bore/outflow boundary has been moving south across the Texas South Plains this morning/early afternoon and has contributed to the development of a few thunderstorms in the last hour. A dryline arcs from Midland to south of Fort Stockton, where additional thunderstorms are developing over the high terrain. Although low-level wind fields are quite weak over the area, westerly mid-to-upper level winds of 30-50 kt is contributing to somewhat long, straight hodographs over the area, and resides in a layer with rather deep positive buoyancy, as noted in RAP analysis/forecast soundings. Given the deep-layer shear profile, moderate instability, and a substantially-mixed boundary layer amidst dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s, widely scattered thunderstorms, including supercells, are expected through the afternoon. Over the northern part of the area, although the bore/outflow has diffused the convergence along the dryline, the hodographs favor splitting supercells suggesting left movers could affect the northern part of the area. However, the coverage of storms is expected to remain low, making the need for a Watch uncertain at this time.
redneckweather wrote:I guess I have been lucky this Spring season. I don't monitor my rain gauge much but my garden has been flooded 3 times this Spring. This past Sunday was the first time I gave it a light watering. The ground is still holding good moisture and no signs of anything drying out. I'm surprised signs of drought are showing up around me because I have seen nothing of the sort. The San Jacinto River up this way has come up to the banks twice this Spring and has come up 5 feet on 3 different occasions. Of course with a dry forecast in the extended and temps in the 90's, it won't take long for things to dry up around here pretty quick.
We had our fair share of some good rains this spring as well, but got shafted the last couple of ‘events’. Things are quickly drying out down here and the grass, weeds, and saplings are starting to wilt and even brown along the roadsides. I thought to myself driving home today ‘it’s starting to look like August, not May’. It doesn’t take long in this heat to dry out, and the effects will start to quickly compound. Yes the reservoirs are in good shape (still), but again it won’t take long to affect those too.
We really need a good soaking, and soon, to stave off the summer feedback of hot & dry just making it more hot and dry. It’s a delicate balance and every single day counts at this point...
Spent time in Northern Liberty County at our 10K Acre Hunting Lease Sunday. While there is some improvement from the swamp we've had the last 3 years, it's still plenty wet and the mosquitos where brutal in some areas.
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Here is an update from Jeff. It echoes a lot of what I have been saying - in this hot, dry weather, drought conditions can develop very quickly. I have not had rain since April 22.
Also something to note, the drought monitor tends to lag behind 'real world' conditions a bit too. As a drought spreads, it's usually a little worse than depicted on the drought monitors...
Near record to record heat likely again today across the region.
After a cool April, May has quickly brought summer conditions with both heat and increasing dryness. IAH has hit 94 the past two days and today looks like 94/95 is a good bet. Upper level ridge remains anchored over the northern Gulf of Mexico which is helping to produce a fairly dry air mass by SE TX standards…PWS running 1.0-1.2 inches. Subsidence aloft is keeping even cloud formation to a minimum with the closest rainfall/storms located well W/NW of SE TX along the W TX dry line. WSW/SW winds have been allowing mid 90’s each afternoon and this will be the case again today. Onshore flow returns on Friday into the weekend with an earlier push of the inland seabreeze which should help knock afternoon highs down a degree or two Friday and Saturday. May have just enough moisture back into the region and slight weakening of the upper level ridge by Sunday into early next week for an isolated shower or storm along the seabreeze front. Overall will keep the rain chance less than 20% for the next 5 days and honestly looking at the long range model output…rain chances look slim through the end of the month…GFS is producing between .10 and .25 of an inch of rainfall through the next 16 days.
Drought Conditions:
Hot and “dry” air mass is quickly resulting in degradation of fine fuels and grasses as top soil layers have begun to dry. Drought conditions have developed over Wharton, Matagorda, and Jackson Counties and are slowly expanding NE deeper into the area. Jackson County is currently classified in moderate drought conditions. Soil moisture will continue to decline over the next several days with dry and hot afternoons and evaporation rates will be maximized across the region. May is typically one of the wettest months across SE TX, but thus far this May Hobby has only recorded a Trace of rainfall, Galveston .24 of an inch and Victoria .02 of an inch.
Jeff Lindner
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PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018/
DISCUSSION...
Another hot/dry day across SE TX today with some records highs
prepared to fall (or very near) this afternoon (Galveston/IAH).
Patchy fog possible again tonight across areas W/SW of Houston
likely lingering through mid Fri morning. The return of south-
east winds tomorrow could bring an end to the streak of record
setting days as the onshore flow helps to modify things.
As the upper ridge breaks down over the weekend (likely as the
response to a series of shortwaves rotating around the base of
elongated trof axis along the west coast), we should be seeing
slightly better rain chances over the weekend as the seabreeze
tries to get things going. However, the better chances to hold
until the start of next week (when weak disturbances come into
play with the seabreeze). Additionally models are hinting that
increased PWs (1.6-1.8") are possible during that time period.
Drying pattern could be returning by the end of next week. 41
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
608 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018
.AVIATION...
A few patchy spots of low ceilings and/or fog will persist for the next couple of hours before improving to VFR for today. Southerly winds to start will become gusty later this morning, with a seabreeze likely this afternoon and evening. Low ceilings will be possible again tonight, but confidence remains low for now. Could see some isolated showers and thunderstorms during the daytime Sunday. 11
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018/
DISCUSSION...
Upper level ridging will provide yet another day of unseasonably warm temperatures and rain free skies. At the surface, the pressure gradient between low pressure over West Texas and high pressure over the Gulf has tightened so would expect breezy south winds today. Mixing from the southerly winds and a bit more cloud cover should shave a few degrees from yesterdays high temperatures.
The upper ridge gets dampened southward on Sunday as a deep upper trough edges into the Pacific coast. A southwest upper flow over the area will allow a weak short wave to traverse the region and bring scattered showers and thunderstorms. At this time, it appears the higher rain chances will focus over the western half of the CWA closer to the short wave. The Hi-Res guidance is rather bullish with rain chances and matches up well with the Canadian and the ECMWF. The GFS is stronger with the ridging and shows less moisture. Have leaned toward the consensus and have raised PoPs to chance over the NW half of the region. NAM forecast soundings show some instability in the late afternoon with steepening lapse rates and an inverted V signature, so if storms do develop, will need to watch out for some gusty winds. Temperatures will be strongly dependent on when clouds/precip develop. 850 temps cool a bit so highs on Sunday should be mainly in the upper 80's to lower 90's.
Another short wave trough rotating around a deep long wave trough over So CA will approach the area on Monday. This feature coupled with daytime heating will trigger additional showers and storms on Monday. The upper ridge over Northern Mexico starts to build back into Texas on Tuesday as the upper trough over CA shears out. The Canadian and the ECMWF keeps rain chances going Tues/Wed as they keep the upper ridge further south and maintain lower heights over East Texas. Will introduce 20 PoPs for mid week and await a consensus on the the position of the ridge.
By next Friday, the GFS carves out a fairly deep upper trough over the mid Mississippi valley and brings a cold front into North Texas. 500 heights fall and the front will serve as a focus for rainfall. The ECMWF shows a weakness over the northern Gulf but shifts the upper feature east allowing upper level ridging to expand over Texas. Have leaned toward the drier and warmer ECMWF for next weekend. 43
CLIMATE...
Houston has recorded seven consecutive days with temperatures at or above 90 degrees. Today will likely be the eighth day. The longest streak of consecutive 90 degree days during the month of May is 16 days back in 1996. If the temperature reaches 90 on Sunday, it looks like the 90 degree threshold will be reached for the rest of next week and the streak could reach 15 days by next Saturday. 43
MARINE...
Moderate S to SE winds are expected today and tonight with caution flags currently flying for all waters. Caution to advisory conditions are expected on and off through the weekend before weakening some heading into the start of the work week. 11
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM... Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM... Galveston Bay... Matagorda Bay... Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM... Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
Today's forecast for this upcoming week looks more like summer in eastern NC, where I grew up. High near 90°F and 20-30% chance every day. I'll take it. This morning was pleasant and breezy (S 18 G 25) - mid 70s, not bad for a 5K charity run/walk.
