April 2018- April To End Cooler/Drier Than Normal

[Katdaddy]

Partly sunny skies with increasing clouds today. It will be warm and breezy with highs in the low 80s for most of SE TX with upper 70s along the coast. The main severe weather threat area for Friday afternoon and night still look to be to the N and NE of Houston metro.

[jasons2k]

Unfortunately, it looks similar to the last event with most of it to the north and northeast. Wash rinse repeat, the new springtime norm around these parts. So much for April showers.

[Cromagnum]

I'll take a trickle of cooler weather and showers every week if it holds up through the summer.

[srainhoutx]

For those N of a line from Brenham to Cleveland, the shorter range Mesoscale Guidance does indicate the capping inversion may be breakable Friday afternoon/evening ahead of the frontal boundary. We see some indications of discrete super cells attempting to develop. Let's not forget that our SE Texas NWS WFO covers a large geographical area.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z 3km NAM suggests that a couple of discrete super cells attempt to fire near the Brazos Valley Region and strengthen as the migrate E toward the Piney Woods of East Texas late Friday afternoon/evening. In the very early morning hours as the cold front approaches Metro Houston, some strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing out ahead of the front.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 121754
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1254 PM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018

.AVIATION...
Ceilings have scattered out this morning as strong southerly flow
continues through tonight with winds gusts of 20-25 knots. MVFR
decks will build in from the west late tonight and persist
through tomorrow morning. Periods of IFR ceilings are possible,
but with a low level jet moving from Central Texas toward the
coast tonight, the atmosphere will remain well mixed. Wind gusts
increase tomorrow along the coastal counties to 25-30 kts as the
low level jet progresses farther offshore. Scattered showers are
likely to become established by mid-morning tomorrow with
thunderstorms developing later in the day. 22

[tireman4]

Severe Weather Risk Friday Night..

[javakah]

Severe Weather Risk Friday Night..

Although in the current SPC Convective Outlook, they've pushed the Slight region about a county further north, so now much more of Harris is in the marginal area.

[jasons2k]

Yeah, like I've been saying all week, just not getting my hopes up. This is pretty much all that matters from the discussion:

Per out-look from SPC, the best chances for strong/severe storms will be
over our N/NE counties...and even better for points further N/NE
of us through tomorrow evening. A second round of storms will be
possible with the cold front itself late tomorrow night into the
early hours of Saturday. However, instability/available moisture
should be rather limited.

Edit to add: Only 50% POPs for IAH. Last front they had 80% and I got nothing, so...just not optimistic.

[don]

Its a bit early but I think next weekends system looks more interesting...
models are picking up on another potent low, but further south than this one.

The Canadian model:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... cus_36.png

The GFS and European are further north but there's more energy further to the south than with the upcoming system showing a severe weather risk also:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... cus_36.png
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/te ... 1800z.html

[jasons2k]

God, I hope so. We need some rain. Not wishing severe weather on anybody but a little lightning and thunder would be a welcome sight and sound.

I have to admit, even though I've publicly 'given up' on tomorrow's event, I'll be watching closely all day long. I hope we can at least squeeze out enough rain to water the lawn. It's just too bad it seems like if things line-up to get any significant rain (I'm not talking about some dying gust-out sprinkles...but real rain), it comes with a risk of severe weather too.

[Katdaddy]

Another windy warm humid day with a few showers possible ahead of the cold front that will arrive across SE TX late tonight and early Saturday morning. The SPC has all of SE TX in a marginal risk area and NNE portions of SE TX in a slight risk area for severe weather. An enhanced risk also covers a large area from ETX, across ARK, and into the middle Missouri Valley. Skies will clear Saturday morning leading to a very cool and sunny weekend with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

[srainhoutx]

NWS Houston‏Verified account @NWSHouston · 23m23 minutes ago
Keep up with the forecast today. Scattered showers and storms possible with a few strong storms possible late this afternoon and again late tonight.

[srainhoutx]

A Rare Moderate Risk for Severe Thunderstorms has been issued at 13Z by the Storm Prediction Center with all modes of Severe Weather possible for our Neighbors across portions of NE Texas, NW Louisiana and portions of Arkansas.

[stormlover]

HRRR is really blahh

[tireman4]

Severe Weather Risk Friday Night..

Although in the current SPC Convective Outlook, they've pushed the Slight region about a county further north, so now much more of Harris is in the marginal area.

I was quoting the KPRC Weather Headline. Their words, not mine.

[tireman4]

Tor Con 3....

FRIDAY 4/13
Severe thunderstorms in IA, MO, AR, east KS, east OK, east TX, west and north LA,extreme west-central IL, spreading overnight into west and north MS, west half TN, west KY, south IL, northwest AL. TORCON - 5 north LA, northeast TX, east OK, AR, MO except southeast; 4 - IA, southeast MO, MS; 3 - southeast TX, east KS, west-central IL; 2-3 rest of area.

An upper trough spawns a surface low near the KS/NE border that pulls moist, unstable air as far north as a warm front in central IA. A moderately strong low-level jet in the warm sector gives shear more than enough for tornadoes. It appears that supercells will form, gradually increasing in coverage and into a squall line overnight.

[tireman4]

HGX AFD

000
FXUS64 KHGX 131145
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
645 AM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

.AVIATION...
MVFR ceilings in place across most TAF sites this morning, and
expecting these conditions to hold, potentially dropping to IFR
criteria at times, until the passing of the next cold front.
Gusty conditions also expected today, with a tight pressure
gradient in place ahead of the front. Light showers will be
possible across much of the region this morning. A secondary round
of showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon out
ahead of the front, with short term guidance hinting at the best
coverage more towards our northeastern terminals UTS/CXO. Expect a
break in precipitation early this evening before the arrival of
the actual cold front which based off most recent model guidance,
should reach CLL around 05Z and push off the coast by 12Z
Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along this
boundary as it moves from north to south across SE TX. Winds will
back behind this frontal boundary, and a northwesterly wind should
prevail by sunrise Saturday.

Hathaway

[jasons2k]

Severe Weather Risk Friday Night..

Although in the current SPC Convective Outlook, they've pushed the Slight region about a county further north, so now much more of Harris is in the marginal area.

I was quoting the KPRC Weather Headline. Their words, not mine.

It's the media. They need ratings. I have co-workers here from California, and yesterday they were freaking out reading about "large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes" and I was thinking to myself 'good grief, people are freaking out over nothing...'

[tireman4]

I was quoting the KPRC Weather Headline. Their words, not mine. [/quote]

It's the media. They need ratings. I have co-workers here from California, and yesterday they were freaking out reading about "large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes" and I was thinking to myself 'good grief, people are freaking out over nothing...'[/quote]

I know..I needed something ( when you upload an attachment, you need some words in the box) to type in. I figured ok, the headline they have will work.