Hurricane Alex. 40 Miles NNE of La Pesca. 100 MPH/948MB

[Mr. T]

00z CMC eventually takes it into Beaumont as a 975 mb hurricane by 120

The 00z UKMET remains steadfast and shows a Tampico, MX landfall. Which, at this point, seems much more reasonable.

I will feel a lot better after 2am tonight and the EURO still showing MX...no offense MX....

me too...

I'm confident it will

[Scott747]

0z HWRF -

[Mr. T]

0z HWRF -

Definitely shifted north from the 18z run, but still the more reasonable scenario

It is pretty amazing to see such model differences like we are seeing tonight

[Scott747]

0z HWRF -

Definitely shifted north from the 18z run, but still the more reasonable scenario

It is pretty amazing to see such model differences like we are seeing tonight

Yeah I expected to see some adjustment N with the HWRF. The GFDL will probably show something similar to the 18z run.

Then we should get another round of explanations in the next disco about the wide differences between the two camps, unless the Euro has some crazy shift.

[Mr. T]

Then we should get another round of explanations in the next disco about the wide differences between the two camps, unless the Euro has some crazy shift.

I believe the Euro has been the furthest south model of all. I could definitely see it shift a little north, perhaps a little ways north of Tampico (which is where I ultimately expect this to end up), but I don't expect it to shift to Texas or anything like that.

[Mr. T]

0z GFDL back south to Mexico

I smell GFS suckage

[Scott747]

GFDL will make easier on the NHC forecast. Back S of the border.

http://img22.imageshack.us/img22/2051/a ... 270018.png

[Andrew]

Impressive the GFDL could be fed the garbage 18Z GFS and still come up with a reasonable solution. Of course, with it oscillating back and forth wildy on each run, it still isn't worth much.

Bed before King Euro, will see it in the morning.

It goes straight Northwest then turns i southwest pretty fast. Doesn't look to reasonable even if its location is reasonable.

[Paul]

split camps somewhat....EURO up to bat next....

[Andrew]

split camps somewhat....EURO up to bat next....

As of now it is the GFS and Canadian against everyone else if Euro goes north then we have a ballgame.

[Andrew]

RUMORS say that the Euro takes a NW turn from 48-72 hours... Just rumors as of now so lets see what happens.

[Paul]

EURO IS WAY NORTH....

[Andrew]

EURO IS WAY NORTH....

Yea somewhere around Brownsville....

[Paul]

Its trending North... all of the models....holy crappola!!!!

[Mr. T]

EURO IS WAY NORTH....

Yea somewhere around Brownsville....

I'm not sure what you guys are talking about... It's only slightly further north. Looks like the HWRF, UKMET...

[Andrew]

[Mr. T]

Ok, where is the source of the Euro data half an hour before it appears on other websites?

I use this

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbcalc2.html

[Paul]

Ed, its coming from 2K.....and this is a HUGE shift....few hundred miles....CMC shifts, GFDL, HWRF, GFS....you tell me...looks like a trend to me....

[Andrew]

Ed, its coming from 2K.....and this is a HUGE shift....few hundred miles....CMC shifts, GFDL, HWRF, GFS....you tell me...looks like a trend to me....

Haha I like the quotes on 2k.

"Euro it's like drugs"

[Mr. T]

A slight shift north, for sure, but nothing too extreme

I posted this on Eastern, too: