Hurricane Alex. 40 Miles NNE of La Pesca. 100 MPH/948MB

[Paul]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_078l.gif


steering collapses..??

[Andrew]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_078l.gif


steering collapses..??

I believe so but the trof is still digging strong so it should head north and then head west as the ridge builds back in.

[Mr. T]

The 0z GFS takes this into SW LA! lol

This is just too funny

[Scott747]

Yup. The OP GFS is about to have another Texas landfall.

And the "new" GFS is as well...

Scratch the new one. It tries to split a piece of energy off towards La. and the main impulse retrogrades back towards the SW.

Gotta love what this new one can do.

[Andrew]

The 0z GFS takes this into SW LA! lol

This is just too funny

Parallel seems to stall it move it a little farther north and stall it again right south of the border.

[Mr. T]

Yup. The OP GFS is about to have another Texas landfall.

And the "new" GFS is as well...

Scratch the new one. It tries to split a piece of energy off towards La. and the main impulse retrogrades back towards the SW.

Gotta love what this new one can do.

Yeah, I thought the "new" one was about to trend north as well

[txsnowmaker]

How many more model runs indicating a more north/northwesterly direction before it can be said with a fair amount of confidence that the post-Yucatan landfall will be a U.S. rather than Mexican event?

[Andrew]

The parallel GFS has the ridge winning:

[Paul]

Txsnow....wait for the EURO if it flips then we have an issue....

[Scott747]

Yup. The OP GFS is about to have another Texas landfall.

And the "new" GFS is as well...

Scratch the new one. It tries to split a piece of energy off towards La. and the main impulse retrogrades back towards the SW.

Gotta love what this new one can do.

Yeah, I thought the "new" one was about to trend north as well

I do love what solutions this new one comes up with. Ends up pulling a fujiwhara with Alex and Darby or a new EPAC storm.

[Mr. T]

I do love what solutions this new one comes up with. Ends up pulling a fujiwhara with Alex and Darby or a new EPAC storm.

Basically, in a nutshell, they haven't fixed anything

cool

[SusieinLP]

Forgive me if this question is ....dumb.....but I thought the GFS was in crazy crazy land since Alex was just an invest?? Is GFS being taken seriously now or it it still crazy?? I went out for the evening sure Alex was headed into Mexico but now I am seeing on other boards people talking about a shift towards LA?

[Mr. T]

The only problem I have with the OP GFS is the fact that the parallel GFS and the 0z NAM still show a similar Mexico landfall. The NHC is probably correct with its error run prediction.

I suppose this makes everything more interesting.

[Scott747]

Forgive me if this question is ....dumb.....but I thought the GFS was in crazy crazy land since Alex was just an invest?? Is GFS being taken seriously now or it it still crazy?? I went out for the evening sure Alex was headed into Mexico but now I am seeing on other boards people talking about a shift towards LA?

At this point I don't take much credence it what it's showing. However it still will be used by the NHC and will have a impact most likely on what the hurricane models (HWRF/GFDL) shows and will have some bearing on a track heading with the next package. Based on the earlier disco the NHC is taking the GFS and GFDL as outliers unless they begin to show continuity.

Honestly this isn't that crazy as many times with systems we have models that show wild solutions throughout the lifetime of a storm.

Now if the Euro show a wide swing in the track on its 0z run.... Then it will be a different story.

[Andrew]

The only problem I have with the OP GFS is the fact that the parallel GFS and the 0z NAM still show a similar Mexico landfall. The NHC is probably correct with its error run prediction.

I suppose this makes everything more interesting.

Yea but the GFS run is terrible I mean it runs the storm north then completely west, sits it there, goes a little farther north then west again and sits it there again breaks a piece off and then continues west. I don't think this is going to happen.

For the Nam I mean i don't know it seems like a plausible track but as everyone says "It's the Nam".

I think what we really need to look at is the storm is actually moving NW right now if this trend continues overnight it will really be north of most tracks.

[Mr. T]

The 0z CMC is even more hilarious.

It takes Alex up to just off the Upper Texas Coast at hour 72, and then just stalls it through 108.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/mod ... 12_108.jpg

[Paul]

Tyler, last year with the new CMC tweaks it beat out all other models in the 96-72hr range....not saying its going to verify but just some food for thought.

[Mr. T]

00z CMC eventually takes it into Beaumont as a 975 mb hurricane by 120

The 00z UKMET remains steadfast and shows a Tampico, MX landfall. Which, at this point, seems much more reasonable.

[Andrew]

Tyler, last year with the new CMC tweaks it beat out all other models in the 96-72hr range....not saying its going to verify but just some food for thought.

Yea I know Ivan is talking about it over on 2k but man the CMC would be the absolute worst case scenario for us here in Southeast Texas. It stalls it for a good time and then sends it in. Lets pray that does not happen or we are going to have a big problem.

[Paul]

00z CMC eventually takes it into Beaumont as a 975 mb hurricane by 120

The 00z UKMET remains steadfast and shows a Tampico, MX landfall. Which, at this point, seems much more reasonable.

I will feel a lot better after 2am tonight and the EURO still showing MX...no offense MX....