JANUARY 2018 - Seasonal WX Week/Pacific Front Saturday

[jasons2k]

Covers come off today. I'm afraid all that will be left above the ground is mush.

Still watching the long range for the Siberian dump.

[harp]

Covers come off today. I'm afraid all that will be left above the ground is mush.

Still watching the long range for the Siberian dump.

Does that still look like a possibility?

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Lordy... that’s ummm, a pretty impressive set up for cold air and Texas storms.

[tireman4]

Well, this could ( only could..) raise some eyebrows as Srain would say.

[tireman4]

More stuff to munch on...as we await the waning days of January...( and by the way, Srain speaks about this often when making his forecasts...the MJO..)

[tireman4]

Cold January 2018 so far....

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 191821
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1221 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

.AVIATION...
Coastal troughing tucked in over the Coastal Bend region finally
on the move east. Expect band of showers over the 66R-HOU-GLS to
gradually break up and shift eastward. Short term issues with
reduced visibility in showers for HOU/SGR/LBX/GLS. As the trough
moves east expect CIGS to lower across the region this
afternoon/evening with IFR/LIFR conditions to blanket the region
by 06z. Some uncertainty as to whether VLIFR conditions will
develop inland after 09z. CXO northward probably has the greatest
chances of VLIFR. Slow improvement 14-17z to IFR/MVFR with a few
showers mainly after 15z. Winds increasing during the afternoon
Saturday and becoming more southerly and probably even gusty.

45

&&

[jasons2k]

http://www.chron.com/life/gardening/art ... 510926.php

[ticka1]

Well, this could ( only could..) raise some eyebrows as Srain would say.

okay can you explain what this picture is showing - please?

[srainhoutx]

Well, this could ( only could..) raise some eyebrows as Srain would say.

okay can you explain what this picture is showing - please?

The Japanese model suggests the first shot of Canadian Air around January 27th or so might be rather robust. I stated earlier this week that the various computer model schemes will struggle with the upcoming pattern heading into February. My hunch is the first half of February could be as cold as we just experienced possibly extending to the period when March begins. It's entirely too soon to even attempt to forecast precipitation beyond 3 to 5 days prior to any cold air as we just experienced this week. The potential upper air pattern does appear to be conducive for delivering much colder air that is building in Siberia and Asia into North America as February begins. Enjoy the warmer weather while it lasts. There are still some minor traces of sleet/snow in shady spots up here in NW Harris County this evening.

[tireman4]

Thanks Srain. Right, hence my words could. This is too far out for anything close to definite.

[BlueJay]

http://www.chron.com/life/gardening/art ... 510926.php

Thanks for this gardening post jasons. I will be removing the mush that is left of my tropicals tomorrow.

[BlueJay]

Will we be able to uncover our plants before May?

You still have plants worth covering?!? I think Tuesday got pretty much everything that wasn't inside, but I haven't checked our greenhouse and tool shed yet. The frigid weather even got a hummingbird.

Sorry to hear about the hummingbird!
I'm not convinced that everything is dead yet but the hibiscus (not totally freeze dried) and philodendron (not totally mush) are no longer lush. I'm going to hold out on removal for a while.

Note to self: Gardenias, Dianella, and Aspidistra were able to withstand 15F temperatures.

[srainhoutx]

The very long range 12Z ECMWF EPS and its 51 individual ensemble members suggest a big Eastern/NE Pacific Ridge extending into Alaska and another Ridge across the Arctic Circle with a very deep upper level full latitude trough extending from Northern Canada to the NW Gulf Coast. Such a pattern could be capable of delivering very cold Siberian/Eurasia Air to our part of the World if the Ensemble schemes are correct for early February.

[TexasBreeze]

That eps map shows a very impressive blocking pattern with source regions over there currently being bitter bitter cold...

[Katdaddy]

A burst of heavy rain at Mom’s today in Pearland. Its been awhile since I have seen puddles form in the old yard and begin to rise onto the patio which brought back memories as a little boy. As a little weather geek, I would judge each rain event on how far the water moved up the patio. Excitement would increase as the water moved up higher and higher on the patio. Half way up was amazing and to the top was unreal. I have seen the yard become ocean many times growing up. Vivid memories of the June 1976 rain event which dropped 7” of rain and brought water to the top of the patio and I will never forget Claudette 1979 which also brought water to the top of the patio and into the garage. Thankfully Mom’s house has not flooded yet over the years but came close with Claudette, Allison, and Harvey.

[srainhoutx]

Looks like we will have a marginal risk of a skinny line of showers and thunderstorms in the wee hour of tomorrow morning as the Pacific front advances across our Region there is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms NE of Metro Houston, but better dynamics will be well NE of our Region as a potent Winter Storm exits the 4 Corners into the Central Plains and on N and East.

Looking to the first of February, I continue to see growing trends via the overnight Ensemble schemes that continue to trend colder and toward an Upper Air Pattern capable of delivering much colder air in early to mid February at least. Perhaps someone will start a New Topic for February as we are rapidly heading toward the end of January.

01202018 814temp_new.gif

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01212018 CPC Day 11+ Analogs 500hgt_comp_sup814.gif

[CrashTestDummy]

A burst of heavy rain at Mom’s today in Pearland. Its been awhile since I have seen puddles form in the old yard and begin to rise onto the patio which brought back memories as a little boy. As a little weather geek, I would judge each rain event on how far the water moved up the patio. Excitement would increase as the water moved up higher and higher on the patio. Half way up was amazing and to the top was unreal. I have seen the yard become ocean many times growing up. Vivid memories of the June 1976 rain event which dropped 7” of rain and brought water to the top of the patio and I will never forget Claudette 1979 which also brought water to the top of the patio and into the garage. Thankfully Mom’s house has not flooded yet over the years but came close with Claudette, Allison, and Harvey.

Hey, those puddles look familiar!! We get similar puddles during rain spells, and the 2-acre lake that's 3" deep around our house when we get a lot of rain. During Harvey, we were an island for almost a week.

Having to make some minor repairs out in the tool shed this afternoon, and the walk out there is an adventure of missing where the water is deepest, and where the pups have been.

[srainhoutx]

01212018 mcd0032.gif

Mesoscale Discussion 0032
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

Areas affected...northeast Texas...eastern Oklahoma through western
Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 211913Z - 212115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop by 21Z across
northeast Texas into eastern Oklahoma and subsequently increase in
coverage and intensity. Supercells and bowing line segments with
damaging wind and a few tornadoes should be the primary threats. A
tornado watch will probably be needed before 21Z.

DISCUSSION...This afternoon a dryline extends from northeast KS
through west-central OK to north-central and southwest TX. Pacific
front will merge with the dryline later this afternoon, and this
boundary will continue through the southern Plains this evening as a
surface low consolidates over eastern KS in association with a
progressive shortwave trough. Modifying continental-polar air with
low 60s F dewpoints has advected through the warm sector beneath
modest lapse rates where objective analysis shows a corridor of
500-800 J/KG MLCAPE from central and northeast TX into southeast OK.
WV imagery indicates mid-upper level moistening and clouds resulting
from a band of deeper forcing for ascent moving through eastern OK
and northeast TX, and scattered showers are already developing over
northeast TX in association with this process. RAP soundings
indicate a capping inversion still in place around 750 mb, but
ascent in the 850-500 mb layer layer will eventually erode the
inversion, contributing to thunderstorm development by 20-21Z.
Vertical wind shear will increase as the low-level jet strengthens
within exit region of the approaching mid-upper jet with large 0-1
km hodographs and effective-bulk shear exceeding 40 kt. This
environment should support organized storms including a few discrete
supercells and bowing line segments as storms intensify later this
afternoon and evening.

..Dial/Grams.. 01/21/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...

[Katdaddy]

The first Tornado Watch of 2018 has been issued by the SPC. Tornado Watch Number 1 is in effect for for NE TX, E OK, and W AR until 11PM. Remain weather aware in those areas this evening and tonight.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
305 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Western Arkansas
Eastern Oklahoma
Northeastern Texas

* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 305 PM until
1100 PM CST.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to slowly increase in coverage
and intensity this afternoon into this evening from north and
northeastern Texas into southeastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas
in advance of a strong storm system progressing eastward over the
Great Plains. The storm environment will support some threat for
semi-discrete supercells for the next few hours, and then convection
should gradually grow upscale into more of a squall line tonight. A
few tornadoes with the supercells and/or embedded circulations, as
well as damaging winds with bowing segments, will be possible.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
east and west of a line from 30 miles west northwest of Harrison AR
to 50 miles south southwest of Tyler TX. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.