JANUARY 2018 - Seasonal WX Week/Pacific Front Saturday

[sau27]

Looking at the Goes 16 IR there is a subtle wave extending just north of Matagorda into central Texas that is sliding to the NE. Wondering if this is going to help add some lift later this afternoon/evening. I dont know how to post the image here but here is the link (hopefully it works). http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... 7-48-1-100

[Heat Miser]

That sky is begging to shed some moisture. Lovely, seeing I have to drive over the Galveston Causeway in about two hours and return from work at 12 AM. FYI, The Pelican Island bridge has already reported ice on that bridge. Another bridge I have to drive across to and fro.
Sau, that sky just needs a tiny trigger and that may be all that's needed.

[mcheer23]

19z HRRR continues the trend

[sau27]

The 19z HRRR is keeping up the precip trend for 6pm-midnight for the area. Also of note is that the 18z NAM 3km is getting "on board" with some precip during that same time frame. I put on board in quotes since the NAM is much less agressive than the HRRR, however it is still a change from the 12z which was showing nothing. Looks like we could have another short-fuse event again tonight, however if it happens I don't think coverage will be as widespread as we saw a few weeks ago

[srainhoutx]

The timing of the onset of the modeled precipitation coincides with a jet streak just ahead of the 500mb upper trough crossing Central and SE Texas. If anything is going to reach the ground, between 7PM to just after 2AM looks to be the timeframe...if it happens at all.

[stormlover]

srain what is ur gut telling you, I k now this is tough to forecast but what does it look like?

[DoctorMu]

Also the Texas Tech WRF as well as the Euro are suggesting moisture falling this evening. Ceilings have lowered across NW Harris County to below 10,000 ft and still slowing lowering. Typically I can see inbound and outbound flights from IAH and now I can just hear the aircraft.

FWIW, I can see the thicker, lower stratus clouds to the south of CLL. It's starting to LOOK like potential for snow (or at least Virga).

(disclosure: we lived just west of Chicago when I was a kid before moving to NC at 9 years of age)

[harp]

Also the Texas Tech WRF as well as the Euro are suggesting moisture falling this evening. Ceilings have lowered across NW Harris County to below 10,000 ft and still slowing lowering. Typically I can see inbound and outbound flights from IAH and now I can just hear the aircraft.

FWIW, I can see the thicker, lower stratus clouds to the south of CLL. It's starting to LOOK like snow (or at least Virga).

(disclosure: we lived just west of Chicago when I was a kid before moving to NC at 9 years of age)

Well, the vort max continues to move down.

[christinac2016]

So how does it look for Montgomery County? Any precip?

[srainhoutx]

srain what is ur gut telling you, I k now this is tough to forecast but what does it look like?

I typically do not attempt to forecast winter weather events, just longer range patterns and tropical systems. That said I've spent nearly all 60 years of my life right here in Harris County and I've been burned by trusting models as all professional forecasters have. We have the cold air in place. We just need a trigger and the dry air to saturate a bit. It's certainly snowing a few thousand feet up. I can see virga streaks falling right now around 5,000 ft.

[davidiowx]

So how does it look for Montgomery County? Any precip?

I think if it does end up happening, nobody can tell where the actual precip (if any) will fall in SE Texas. It is basically a wait and see game. Precip needs to develop first!

[stormlover]

yeah lets see what radar is showing around 6 tonight, that's when it slowly starts to develop and we all know wants something can develop you just never know what will happen with banding and etc.

[snowman65]

Not anticipating another Dec 7 event by no means but still catches peoples attention

[srainhoutx]

Just an FYI before you see it in the grids. HGX will be adding a 20% to 30% chance of sleet/snow to the afternoon evening forecast basically from Polk and San Jacinto Counties down to Brazoria/Galveston/Chambers Counties. Their timing is similar to what I mentioned earlier. No significant travel impacts expected at this time.

[mcheer23]

Just an FYI before you see it in the grids. HGX will be adding a 20% to 30% chance of sleet/snow to the afternoon evening forecast basically from Polk and San Jacinto Counties down to Brazoria/Galveston/Chambers Counties. Their timing is similar to what I mentioned earlier. No significant travel impacts expected at this time.

30 percent chance of Snow/ Sleet added for Missouri City.

[snowman65]

Would the golden triangle be in the "watch and see" area as well?

[stormlover]

Lake Charles would have to put it up, this is a tough forecast right here

[srainhoutx]

Would the golden triangle be in the "watch and see" area as well?

If the HRRR is correct, I believe so. Possibly nearing Lake Charles as well. For Harp and those in SE Louisiana, the HRRR has you folks possibly seeing a bit of wintry mix as well.

[davidiowx]

Just walked outside and there are icicles hanging from the building!

[srainhoutx]

Well look at that...