Hurricane Alex. 40 Miles NNE of La Pesca. 100 MPH/948MB

[Portastorm]

Ed, that is what I'm wondering as well. I assume the subsidence from the high over Alex will kill off any seabreeze and the onshore flow. Will Alex just keep on trucking through Mexico until dissipation or will his remnants flow north in Texas providing beneficial rain?

Man, year after year the mighty Euro seems to school everyone else. I would trust it over the GFS any day.

[Hardcoreweather]

[Portastorm]

Ed, that is what I'm wondering as well. I assume the subsidence from the high over Alex will kill off any seabreeze and the onshore flow. Will Alex just keep on trucking through Mexico until dissipation or will his remnants flow north in Texas providing beneficial rain?

Man, year after year the mighty Euro seems to school everyone else. I would trust it over the GFS any day.

The Master, ie, the European, keeps us in decent 700 mb RH and good 850 mb RH through the six day period as seen on TV, er, the PSU e-Wall, and even seems to form a weak trough/pull up some remnant vorticity from the remnants of Alex after landfall.

Excellent! Now if we can migrate that moisture into portions of central, north, and east Texas which are now below normal for rainfall.

Will be interesting to see how much, if any, the flat Yucatan can disrupt Alex's developing core.

[Mr. T]

Despite the deep convection, Alex remains disorganized. It probably will not intensify too much more before its first landfall

[sleetstorm]

You call Tropical Storm Alex disorganized, Mr. T? It certainly looks nicely organized to me with good rotation.

[sleetstorm]

I do not know about any of you, but it looks like Tropical Storm Alex is starting to move NW now.

[Mr. T]

You call Tropical Storm Alex disorganized, Mr. T? It certainly looks nicely organized to me with good rotation.

There's deep convection and... that's it. Checking the latest microwave image will tell you that the inner core remains disorganized. The deep convection is still having a hard time consolidating around the center of circulation. This storm is still a broad mess... We might see 50 or 55 mph before landfall, but that's about all she'll wrote before emerging out in the Gulf.

Perhaps once in the Gulf, the inner core of this system can finally tighten up. We may then finally see this thing ramp up greatly in intensity. The NHC is now forecasting a hurricane before the second landfall in Mexico.

[unome]

You call Tropical Storm Alex disorganized, Mr. T? It certainly looks nicely organized to me with good rotation.

from the 10 AM

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT ALEX IS A LARGE CYCLONE WITH AN EXTENSIVE
AREA OF CLOUDINESS...NUMEROUS SQUALLS IN RAINBANDS...AND A WELL
ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. HOWEVER... A
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL THAT ALEX STILL HAS A POORLY
ORGANIZED INNER CORE.

[sleetstorm]

You call Tropical Storm Alex disorganized, Mr. T? It certainly looks nicely organized to me with good rotation.

from the 10 AM

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT ALEX IS A LARGE CYCLONE WITH AN EXTENSIVE
AREA OF CLOUDINESS...NUMEROUS SQUALLS IN RAINBANDS...AND A WELL
ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. HOWEVER... A
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL THAT ALEX STILL HAS A POORLY
ORGANIZED INNER CORE.

Look at how close it is to the Yucatan Paninsula, not much time to become terrificly organized.

[singlemom]

HGX thoughts:

KIND OF AN INTERESTING UPPER PATTERN AT THAT TIME WITH A MID LEVEL HIGH OFF
BAJA...ANOTHER EXTENDING INTO THE ERN GULF...AND A THIRD ONE IN
THE PLAINS (AND THE TROPICAL SYSTEM SANDWICHED BETWEEN THEM ALL).
UNTIL ALEX MOVES BACK INTO THE GULF AND REORGANIZES AND THE UPPER
PATTERN/DOMINATING STEERING FLOW BECOMES MORE CLEAR...THE FCST FOR
SE TX WILL REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...PLAN ON NUDGING POPS
UP OFFSHORE AND CLOSER TO THE COAST NEXT WEEK AS THE OVERALL
CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY LARGE.

Am I reading this right and models are saying that Alex may enter back into the GOM and reform...and hook up with the other low that's hanging around? Or is that topic being discussed on page 47 and I just haven't got there yet? lol

[srainhoutx]

Latest...still unorganized...

[singlemom]

HGX thoughts:

KIND OF AN INTERESTING UPPER PATTERN AT THAT TIME WITH A MID LEVEL HIGH OFF
BAJA...ANOTHER EXTENDING INTO THE ERN GULF...AND A THIRD ONE IN
THE PLAINS (AND THE TROPICAL SYSTEM SANDWICHED BETWEEN THEM ALL).
UNTIL ALEX MOVES BACK INTO THE GULF AND REORGANIZES AND THE UPPER
PATTERN/DOMINATING STEERING FLOW BECOMES MORE CLEAR...THE FCST FOR
SE TX WILL REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...PLAN ON NUDGING POPS
UP OFFSHORE AND CLOSER TO THE COAST NEXT WEEK AS THE OVERALL
CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY LARGE.

Am I reading this right and models are saying that Alex may enter back into the GOM and reform...and hook up with the other low that's hanging around? Or is that topic being discussed on page 47 and I just haven't got there yet? lol

If I read the PSU e-Wall of the European, once inland, it looks like the remnants will head Northward into Texas, which I suspect is the main affect on local sensible weather.

Cool...I'm just hoping we get some rain up this way.

BTW, looking at your Avatar, I have a son with a spectrum disorder. Officially PDD-NOS. High functioning, mostly mainstreamed now in his third grade going into fourth grade class. <snip> .

Really? DS is Third, going into Fourth, PDD\HF AU; ADHD, Anxiety, OCD and PTSD. He's been ditched for 3 years by the system but we're hoping for better things this year.

And now, back to our regularly scheduled (and really fantastic) observations.

[Scott747]

The GFDL and HWRF both trended further to the S. Could get another adjustment down the coast of Mexico with the next full package.

[HereInKaty]

Does anyone have the links to the models? I'd like to bookmark them, I have a new computer this season... thanks a bunch in advanced.

OT- LOVE the ribbon avatar! I have a severely autistic son (9yr) and Katy ISD's autism program is great.

Catherine

[srainhoutx]

Does anyone have the links to the models? I'd like to bookmark them, I have a new computer this season... thanks a bunch in advanced.

OT- LOVE the ribbon avatar! I have a severely autistic son (9yr) and Katy ISD's autism program is great.

Catherine

GFS

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... arib.shtml

ECMWF and other models

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewall.html

There are other sites that our members will probably share as well.

[SusieinLP]

Sure looks like Alex is going to take the long route over the Yucatan...Lots of land to cross the direction he is going now..

[srainhoutx]

Appears that RECON has found Alex a bit stronger. Seeing some 999 MB reports. No center pass that I can see just yet.

[redfish1]

does anyone think the models could trend back north?

[msp]

got a vortex message from recon.

pressure is 998mb
center is 17.1833N 87.35W
estimated max. surface wind: 39kts (~ 44.9mph)

[biggerbyte]

redfish, as of this writing, and the outlook for "today", it does not appear that we need to be concerned about Alex. Most likely things will stay that way. However, as I have mentioned many times before, the only good storm is a dead one. Until that happens, each day can bring something new and unexpected. That is just the nature of the beast.