JANUARY 2018 - Seasonal WX Week/Pacific Front Saturday

[MontgomeryCoWx]

NAM says we barely warm up Friday/Saturday and Sunday is cold and we go below freezing as we usher in 2018.

[davidiowx]

Wow.. it appears there is some intense cold coming to fruition down here. Looks like plants are coming inside and some extra pipe wrapping will be done this weekend.

[Cromagnum]

All the forecasts I'm seeing so far are calling for a quick dip to 29-30 overnight but staying in the 40s during the day. Cold, but nothing out of the ordinary.

[mcheer23]

All the forecasts I'm seeing so far are calling for a quick dip to 29-30 overnight but staying in the 40s during the day. Cold, but nothing out of the ordinary.

You obviously haven't looked at the right forecasts

[harp]

It amazes me how many times people write this stuff....

[DoctorMu]

I was reading back a week before the December 7th- 8th snow event and it wasn't until Tuesday when the shorter range Mesoscale Models where within 48 hours of that event starting that we had somewhat of a clue that there was a chance of a wintry mix and at 48 hours those shorter term models where guessing mostly a Coastal Counties event versus what really happened. Keep that in the back of your mind when attempting to analyze what may occur Monday into Tuesday.

The afternoon Updated Surface Charts for Monday and Tuesday hint at a wave of low pressure in the NW Gulf with a Coastal trough. Also it is not often we see the Weather Prediction Center indicate a 1056 Artic high over Nebraska New Year's Day. I certainly believe it's going to be much colder than the early December snow event. As far as an precipitation falling through that cold air, that's the $64,000 question.

Right - The Dec 7th event was just about Nowcasting. The cold air arrived a little early and we got incredibly lucky with a subfreezing column all the way up. It overtook a heavy band about 15 miles north of Bryan. Tiny flakes morphed into ginormous...and the snow just didn't stop. Fairly heavy carried a brisk north wind. Streets were to warm to stick, but not the grass or roofs.

Wintry precip had been predicted in that 48 hour window as you mentioned to be heaviest near the coast, like the 2004 Christmas Eve snowmageddon.

The GFS model was particularly off for the Dec 7 snowfall.

[SKIDOG46]

I have never seen a forecast been accurate on snow in Houston. I've seen a lot of maybes but not for sure.
No work on Tuesday is in the forecast and a six pack sittin' in the snow.

[Texaspirate11]

IF we do get this freeze with potential wintry mix it wouldn't be too surprising
When I checked my weather journal (yes I'm a geek) from the beginning of the year:
January 6th 2017 - we had a hard freeze with sleet in Houston
January 7th - Hard Freeze with temps at 25 with wind chill at 13
January 8th - Hard freeze again...19 degrees some frost and ice reported
(I did add that the Steelers beat the Dolphins for the wild card )
January 9th - warming trend

So we're on target maybe a week earlier for miserable cold
How many days til summer?

HAPPY NEW YEARS & BUNDLE UP!

[don]

The Canadian is still consistent on a winter storm for central and southeast Texas, its actually more aggressive with moisture than the 12z model was today fwiw.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... cus_18.png

[DoctorMu]

The Canadian is still consistent on a winter storm for central and southeast Texas, its actually more aggressive with moisture than the 12z model was today fwiw.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... cus_18.png

CMC is not giving up on the cold shot either.



GFS 00Z is running a degree or two colder, but still pretty dry.

[don]

Fwiw the 0z UKMET is pretty aggressive showing a widespread swath of qpfs of a quarter to a half inch of precip in portions of central and southeast Texas with the system early next week. Interesting considering the 12z run earlier today was bone dry.

[harp]

Fwiw the 0z UKMET is pretty aggressive showing a widespread swath of qpfs of a quarter to a half inch of precip in portions of central and southeast Texas with the system early next week. Interesting considering the 12z run earlier today was bone dry.

I didn't think it was even running yet.....

[don]

Yep it just finished running the 0z

[harp]

Ok, I thought you meant the Euro. Sorry.

[harp]

Can you post it?

[redneckweather]

Just not seeing anything substantial out of this, neither with cold or precip. It sure would be nice to squeeze a few flurries out of this.

[srainhoutx]

For planning purposes particularly gardeners and those that need to protect exposed water pipes and irrigation systems along and North of I-10, HGX is stating they will likely issue a Hard Freeze Warning New Years Day for Tuesday through Wednesday mornings and Wind Chill Advisories/Warning may also be needed. Current low temperatures in those areas are expected to drop to the low/mid 20's with some Upper Teens possible in the coldest areas. They are also stating that a freeze is likely to the Beaches along SE Texas.

[BlueJay]

Thanks, srain. This is news we can use.

[redneckweather]

Temp wise, the CMC is pretty darn cold while the GFS/Euro shows some low temps that I have already seen this season (got down to 27 already and 28/29 a couple of times). I just have a hard time believing that temps won't be a bit lower with this kind of cold progged to come down. Something more on the lines of the CMC and Euro/GFS meeting in the middle sounds more reasonable.

Also, I don't see us being completely dry when the cold air comes down with the constant moisture feed that has been over us for quite some time. I really can't remember the last time I have seen the sun for a prolonged period of time.

Hopefully as we draw closer to the beginning of the New Year, we will have a surprise pop up in the short term models, similar to the December 7th surprise snowfall. We shall see.

[stormlover]

models coming into better agreement now, cold and dry!! CMC is finally showing dry and no precip in our area.