JANUARY 2018 - Seasonal WX Week/Pacific Front Saturday

[harp]

When I come to the KHOU forums I read one persons posts with interest and respect. WXman, this guy is usually the most reliable and experienced meteorologist visiting this forum. He's not subject to hyperbole and he certainly doesn't bloviate.
You want our sensible weather, read his thoughts.

I believe you just disrespected every other meteorologist on this forum.

[davidiowx]

When I come to the KHOU forums I read one persons posts with interest and respect. WXman, this guy is usually the most reliable and experienced meteorologist visiting this forum. He's not subject to hyperbole and he certainly doesn't bloviate.
You want our sensible weather, read his thoughts.

Thanks for the insight.

[TexasMetBlake]

Euro not only caved to the GFS, it dropped it like its hot and went south of the GFS in temp output

I disagree. The 12z GFS yesterday was showing a low of 14 at IAH and 7 at CXO. The gfs, if anything has joined the warmer Euro with more sensible, believable temperatures. Cold yes but as wxman57 put it, hardly anything record breaking or historical.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Euro not only caved to the GFS, it dropped it like its hot and went south of the GFS in temp output

I disagree. The 12z GFS yesterday was showing a low of 14 at IAH and 7 at CXO. The gfs, if anything has joined the warmer Euro with more sensible, believable temperatures. Cold yes but as wxman57 put it, hardly anything record breaking or historical.

Didn’t see the insane runs yesterday. I was referring to 6z and 12z.

[DoctorMu]

Euro not only caved to the GFS, it dropped it like its hot and went south of the GFS in temp output

I disagree. The 12z GFS yesterday was showing a low of 14 at IAH and 7 at CXO. The gfs, if anything has joined the warmer Euro with more sensible, believable temperatures. Cold yes but as wxman57 put it, hardly anything record breaking or historical.

Didn’t see the insane runs yesterday. I was referring to 6z and 12z.

They were pretty insane. Euro and GFS have converged for now. The question really is how much the sub-zero air pilling into Nebraska is modified. There's a lack of snow cover, which may be partially nullified by clouds during the day and low sun angle. The best chance for a really cold night in central and SE Texas is about now, rather than mid to even late January like up north. Local Mets have a low of 21°F the night of Jan 1-2. No crazy low teens to single digits. Jan 1 will be pretty windy, which with partial cloud cover at night could protect against temps worse than a mild, hard freeze.


How dense is the dome of cold air? - yesterday's insane GFS runs had a 1062 mb high sliding down the Great Plains. Not today.

18z GFS run so far has about the same temps, maybe a little drier solution for the new year...with super cold air capping in northern Oklahoma and Arkansas.

Still, the GFS and Euro had a horrendous time with the Dec 7 event...the Canadian was much closer. It has been an unusual La Nina winter in CLL so far...14 colder than average days, 7 at or above average since Dec 5...and temps will be below to well below normal for the next 7 days, damping the insect population (silver lining on the clouds). Looks like a legit Texas winter - any additional surprises are extra.

[BlueJay]

21F for the nights of Jan 1 and 2 calls for some major work to check on people, tend to plants and protect pipes. Time to prepare!

[DoctorMu]

21F for the nights of Jan 1 and 2 calls for some major work to check on people, tend to plants and protect pipes. Time to prepare!

That's up here in College Station - upper 20s in Houston more likely, as of now.

[don]

The 0z Euro joins the Canadian in showing a winter storm across Southeast Texas fwiw

[srainhoutx]

The 0z Euro joins the Canadian in showing a winter storm across Southeast Texas fwiw

The shortwave is stronger dropping across Texas from the Southern Rockies and a Coastal low/trough develops via the ECMWF. Not all that different than those crazy Canadian solutions. One thing I think we can all agree on, it's going to be cold!

[DoctorMu]

The 0z Euro joins the Canadian in showing a winter storm across Southeast Texas fwiw

Nearly the puzzler of the Dec 7 event. GFS ran drier, fwiw.

[WeatherDuck]

In my area of Central Texas the NWS has increased chances of precipitation to 30% for Saturday night through Sunday night.

Will have to see if the cold air arrives earlier than forecast.

[snowman65]

Weather channel is actually showing rain/snow showers for golden triangle on Jan 2....hmm....

[stormlover]

To far out, weather channel just model hugs, won’t know till this weekend.

[snowman65]

To far out, weather channel just model hugs, won’t know till this weekend.

Alot of times I will compare the current model runs to the weather channel forecast. They never show what the models do....very rare..but right now they are....But yes, it's still a wait and see situation.

[stormlover]

Weather channel is horrible

[mcheer23]

TWC forecast is based off a computer model.

[stormlover]

They used to be all Gfs

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Here is the pretty Euro Snow map from late 1/1-1/2

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/te ... 1200z.html

[snowman65]

Here is the pretty Euro Snow map from late 1/1-1/2

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/te ... 1200z.html

That would be sweeet....

[wxman57]

Overnight Euro certainly does paint a cold and snowy picture for SE TX next Tue/Wed. This time, though, it is forecasting surface temperatures well below freezing during the precip. This could lead to major travel issues Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday - IF it happens. One thing appears certain, it turns colder Sunday night.