December 2017: End Of The Year Weather

[davidiowx]

Note that we have decided on 2 balloon launches today. First will be at 18Z, second near 03Z. They're launched from the University of Houston. Data will be sent to the local NWS office. I'll post it here, too. I'm interested in seeing how well the models are handling the temps aloft.

Cannot wait to see what they reveal!

[tireman4]

Snow in Cotulla, Texas taken by Kevin from Travis Herzog Channel 13 Meteorologist.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Liking the long range look with a negative Aao as well

[Katdaddy]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 071707
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1107 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front was pushing into Southeast Texas from the north at
mid morning. Areas of light rain with an isolated mix of light
rain and sleet have been reported through the morning so far. With
warming temperatures, expect mostly light rain this afternoon.

The latest forecast soundings are showing better possibilities of
snow mixing with the rain tonight before the precipitation ends,
especially toward and at the coast. There are indications from the
forecast soundings that the precipitation could change over to
all light snow or snow flurries before the precipitation chances
end. The global models are showing best snow chances starting
late evening maybe from about Austin and Colorado counties south
to Matagorda County after midnight. Ground temperatures look too
warm for accumulations but some trace amounts could occur on
grassy areas or elevated areas.

All in all the best chances for rain mixed with snow or even just
all snow will be from late evening into the overnight hours. Most
likely areas to see snow will be along and west of a line from
Brenham to Freeport. Accumulating snowfall chances are very low.
Will point out that this expected scenario could change depending
upon how the situation evolves.

It is a bit ironic that my NWS career started in the lower
peninsula of Michigan dealing with winter time snow events. Now my
career is ending in Southeast Texas and we are dealing with a
winter time snow event. Add to that all of the storm events,
Skywarn talks, Southeast Texas snow events at least in 2004 and
2007, and etc. It has been a fun ride and I have been glad to have
helped serve you at the NWS Houston and Galveston areas the last
23 years.

[tireman4]

Paul Lewis of NWS Houston/Galveston is the one retiring.

[mcheer23]

Corpus under a Winter Storm Warning
Victoria under a Winter Weather Advisory.

[snowman65]

Paul Lewis of NWS Houston/Galveston is the one retiring.

DILLY DILLY !!!

[tireman4]

Forecast For Humble As of 12 noon....

[snowman65]

Any hope for the Golden Triangle??

[tireman4]

Snow in the hills near Medina, Texas..Jeff DeVerter photo

[tireman4]

I am only posting this for a public service announcement. This is Winter ( well, meteorology wise, it is) and you never know...

[StormOne]

If you guys down there get measurable snow before we do up here, I'll be done with my weather hobby I swear.

[wxman57]

Just had a look at the 18Z sounding from U of H. Freezing level is at about 2500 ft (768m). Entire precip column is sub-freezing, as the models were predicting. No warm nose. Will have a skew-T shortly.

This doesn't mean we'll awaken to a winter wonderland across Houston, just that we have a good chance of seeing a little snow tonight.

[sau27]

Eagerly awaiting the results of that noon balloon launch from UH.

[sau27]

Slowly but surely the HRRR has been getting on board with the snow trend today.

[jasons2k]

From Jeff:

Rain to mix with snow tonight mainly south of US 59

Winter Weather Advisory issued for coastal bend and portions of S TX where snow accumulations are possible.

Models have come in a little colder especially aloft for this evening and overnight as a strong disturbance moves out of MX and across SC TX. Expect the current band of rain to gradually end this afternoon and a new band to form early this evening generally S of the I-10 corridor. Rain is already changing to snow over SW TX and this favorable thermal profile will be expanding ENE across SC TX into the coastal bend region and portions of coastal SE TX this evening. Special balloon sounding launched from UH at noon today supports a freezing column from 2500ft upward over Houston with no warm nose aloft…which supports a transition to snow as that 2500 ft warm layer begins to shrink and snow aloft begins to have btter potential to reach the ground.

Have enough confidence that rain will change over to rain/snow mix or all snow tonight generally S of the US 59 corridor and especially along a line from near Port Lavaca to Bay City to Freeport that some accumulation will be possible. While surface temperatures will remain above freezing, a meso scale snow band may result in high enough snowfall rates to support some accumulation on grassy and elevated surfaces. Will go with a dusting to .5 of an inch of accumulation for Victoria and Calhoun Counties SW and a dusting for Jackson, Matagorda, and SW Brazoria Counties. Could see light snow into Wharton, Colorado and Austin Counties also.

Across the metro area, would not be surprised to see a rain/snow mix or even change to all light snow, but rates are likely to be light enough to result in the flakes melting on contact with the ground. Surface temperatures are forecast to remain in the 33-35 degree range over the metro area which will preclude any icing on bridges and overpasses.

North of HWY 105 where surface temperatures will fall to freezing, not expecting much if any precipitation as much drier air filters into the region. Bridges and overpasses should dry prior to the onset of freezing temperatures.

Best chances for snowfall production over the area (mainly S of US 59) will be from mid evening through about 400am Friday.

Jeff Lindner

[tireman4]

Here is the Skew T. WxMan 57 posted it on another channel. I am sure he has no problem with me sharing here.

[tireman4]

This is a reference page for the Skew T that was posted.

[djmike]

What about the beaumont area?? Sleet? Snow? Mix? Anything?

[sau27]

The 18Z 12km NAM coming in is getting rather aggressive (I use this in a relative way) with the snow. Will be interesting to see if the GFS finally puts both feet in with the other models on its 18Z run or if it remains a holdout.