Thanksgiving Forecast

[sambucol]

What does our weather look like in SE Texas for Thanksgiving and the week leading up to it?

[srainhoutx]

What does our weather look like in SE Texas for Thanksgiving and the week leading up to it?

Being 11 days + out, we may see a cold front arrive Friday after Thanksgiving cooling us off. It could be rather chilly across a lot of the Eastern half of the United States if those long range models are correct. Still way too soon to know with any certainty.

[srainhoutx]

As we approach the long Thanksgiving Holiday week ahead, it appears after this weekends cool front that our sensible weather pattern may offer a NW flow aloft that keeps temperatures in check or slightly below seasonal early to mid next week. Clouds increase next Wednesday ahead of a strong Canadian Front with possibly much cooler air arriving Thanksgiving Day. There is still uncertainty beyond 3 to 5 days in model world, so keep that in mind when attempting to pin point our weather forecast. The GFS is rather cold with highs struggling to reach 50 on Turkey Day and into the weekend following Thanksgiving. The GFS suggests temperatures flirting with near freezing for overnight lows a week from this Friday and the following Saturday mainly N of I-10. The ECMWF is about 24 hours slower with the front next week, so keep that in mind. Those Medium to Long range models do suggest a rather deep early Winter like cold trough encompassing the Eastern Half of the Lower 48 later next week for those traveling to the East and NE.

[srainhoutx]

The overnight guidance suggests a glancing shot of Canadian Air arrives next Wednesday with a new fly in the ointment regarding our sensible weather. Will need to introduce a chance of rain beginning next Tuesday and possibly continuing into Thanksgiving Day as a Coastal wave of low pressure develops in Deep South Texas along the frontal boundary and crawls up the Coast later next week. The ECMWF is the "wettest" model with the GFS not as wet and not as chilly as yesterday.

[snowman65]

Not a big fan of "glancing shots".....I want the whole enchilada!!!

[srainhoutx]

Not a big fan of "glancing shots".....I want the whole enchilada!!!

You are welcome via the 12Z GFS...lol

[TexasBreeze]

Shades of Leon Lett weekend from that model...

[snowman65]

Not a big fan of "glancing shots".....I want the whole enchilada!!!

You are welcome via the 12Z GFS...lol

lol...Would be nice but I know better

[snowman65]

but I am liking this....

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=456

[CrashTestDummy]

Not a big fan of "glancing shots".....I want the whole enchilada!!!

You are welcome via the 12Z GFS...lol

Yuk!

[cperk]

Not a big fan of "glancing shots".....I want the whole enchilada!!!

You are welcome via the 12Z GFS...lol

I'm in on that action.

[DoctorMu]

Not a big fan of "glancing shots".....I want the whole enchilada!!!

You are welcome via the 12Z GFS...lol

haha Just for fantasy posterity:

[srainhoutx]

There remains a lot of uncertainty regarding what our sensible weather may bring next week for the long Thanksgiving Holiday Weekend. There is a disturbance currently located over Siberia that is giving the Global Models fits and likely we will not be able to see the impacts to our local forecast until early next week. That GFS run yesterday was interesting to see, but that outcome is probably not even close to reality.

The overnight ECMWF and to some extent the Canadian do suggest the possibility of cool, rainy and raw weather may be possible mid next week while that good old GFS is dry and a seasonal regarding temperatures.