Hurricane Alex. 40 Miles NNE of La Pesca. 100 MPH/948MB

[srainhoutx]

Latest...

[srainhoutx]

HPC thoughts this afternoon in Final Extended Disco...

...GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BEST CLUSTERING OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE SOLNS HAS ADJUSTED SOUTHWEST
FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY WITH THE TRACK OF TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE
AREA FORECAST TO REACH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE 00Z AND 12Z CANADIAN/06Z GFS ARE NORTHEAST OF NEARLY ALL THE
00Z MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND COULD NOT BE USED NEAR THE
GULF COAST. A BLEND OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY AND
THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE /WHICH HAS SIGNIFICANTLY TRENDED AWAY FROM
THIS IDEA/ HAS LOWERED THE CHANCES FOR RECURVATURE INTO THE
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST GULF COAST TO AROUND 10-15
PERCENT...SO THIS SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED A LOW PROBABILITY
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO. THE COORDINATED 16Z HPC/TPC POINTS BRING
THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE US/MEXICAN BORDER LATE NEXT WEEK. EITHER
WAY...RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THIS
SYSTEM NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

[don]

Im thinking North Mexico to the Middle Texas coast (maybe even Upper) as a final destination for 93l at least for now I doubt the trough will be strong enough to lift this thing all the way into the northeast gulf...

[Andrew]

Here is what Air Force Met had to say over on storm2k ( He is a proffessional-met if you didn't figure that out already):

I think to many on here are way to quick to dismiss oppr old 93L. I disagree with x-y-no on it running out of time. I think what is happening is a secondary impulse is moving into the backside of the wave and we see that result in the form of the deep convection exploding south of Hisp. There is a surge of low level easterlies pressing into the wave axis and this is the cause of the convection...and why the wave axis is starting to tilt more towards the NE (insted of N-S).

If you look at the hi-res vis loops and watch the actual broad low...you can see that it is slowely becoming less round and more egg shaped...leaning NE-SW. What is happening is the low level cu field is responding to the lowering pressures in the area...

I give this more than a 50/50 chance...more like a 70% chance of forming...probably by tomorrow night. I don't think the trof will catch it...and believe that somewhere along the lower TX coast or N Mexico is the eventual destination. What could also happen is the GFS is more right than I am giving it credit...and future Alex moves into the north or central Gulf...stalls...then heads to the west as the ridge builds in.

There...that's my 2 cents...for what it is worth...

[sleetstorm]

It seems as though there is another area of low pressure south or southeast of Jamaica when I watched the RGB & Rainbow Infrared Satellites in motion.

[Scott747]

lol

I was exchanging some brief thoughts with Steve thru a few PM's with the idea that I was leaning towards that 2nd wave being the one to watch with 93l moving more westward into CA or the extreme southern BOC like what the other S2K poster was mentioning.

Appears that AFM is still thinking that the original 93l will develop with enhancement from the wave on the backside. Given that it's AFM it's hard to argue with his line of thoughts.

[Scott747]

It seems as though there is another area of low pressure south or southeast of Jamaica when I watched the RGB & Rainbow Infrared Satellites in motion.

It's a second wave. Mentioned earlier on Eastern that the GFS had hinted on a few runs of trying to develop this wave as opposed to 93l.

From the NHC TWD -

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W S OF 20N MOVING W-NW NEAR 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AS INDICATED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 14-18N BETWEEN 65W-74W. ENERGY SHEARED OFF
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 56W-65W.

[srainhoutx]

Appears cyclogenesis has started. I would not be surprised to see 60% on the 8:00 PM full update. We shall see.

[Mr. T]

Appears cyclogenesis has started. I would not be surprised to see 60% on the 8:00 PM full update. We shall see.

Convection is definitely attempting to form closer to the naked swirl. It would be nice to see it wrap around the apparent center, then the ball could really begin to roll. There is still a lot of westerly shear in its NW quadrant though, so any development in the short term will be slow.

[srainhoutx]

Appears cyclogenesis has started. I would not be surprised to see 60% on the 8:00 PM full update. We shall see.

Convection is definitely attempting to form closer to the naked swirl. It would be nice to see it wrap around the apparent center, then the ball could really begin to roll. There is still a lot of westerly shear in its NW quadrant though, so any development in the short term will be slow.

Speed the images up abit...notice the level cloud movement...SW of Jamaica...

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

Edit to add the loop is time sensitive.

[Andrew]

I am going to post another met again. This is Wxman57 (who we all know and who is a frequent visitor). Here are his thoughts over on 2k:

This is the area AFM is talking about (yellow circle). Just ahead of the convective burst. Fairly far south. Would lend credence to the ECMWF track toward northern Mexico or far south TX. Not a high confidence forecast yet, though. I'm afraid it has at least a 50% shot at development, probably higher.

[redfish1]

does anybody think this system has a chance of coming up here into southeast texas????

[Scott747]

Could be something in that area forming...

[Scott747]

does anybody think this system has a chance of coming up here into southeast texas????

There is always a chance. For now until we get a definitive llc to form we are mainly speculating.

A few days before we get a better handle on eventual movement.

[Andrew]

does anybody think this system has a chance of coming up here into southeast texas????

Sure it does. Most mets that I have seen post are looking at a Mexico border to corpus hit but things can easily go a little farther to the north and cause trouble for us here around Southeast Texas. I think once we have a defined LLC we will get better model runs and have a better idea.

[Mr. T]

does anybody think this system has a chance of coming up here into southeast texas????

yes

[srainhoutx]

Should be an active evening around here. The night crew was busy with the 00Z model runs the past couple of nights. Once we have a "defined" LLC, we will have better data input for guidance. Note: When loading images, try out the attachment feature available on the platform. The images will appear smaller and easier for folks to follow. wxdata knows I am the biggest 'trouble maker' regarding that. I have mended my old ways.

[srainhoutx]

Could be something in that area forming...

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

AMZ089-250330-
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 PM EDT THU JUN 24 2010
.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 82W WITH
EMBEDDED LOW PRES 1008 MB NEAR 16N82W WILL MOVE TO THE NW TOWARD
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CHANNEL THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THE LOW MAY
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED BEFORE REACHING THE YUCATAN AND MAY
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE ON FRI OR FRI NIGHT.

[srainhoutx]

Latest IR Image...



And VIS before sunset

[Mr. T]

He's alive!