Hurricane Alex. 40 Miles NNE of La Pesca. 100 MPH/948MB

[Paul]

If this were to develop, how soon next week could areas along the Gulf Coast could start to experience tropical conditions? Do most models still project an earliest landfall around Tuesday-Wednesday?

that is a good bet....probably later if it does in fact develope and the trof is as strong as some of the models are showing....personally, I dont think that trof is going to dig as much as progged. Its June...sheesh not late Sept or Oct....JMO

[biggerbyte]

I'm with Paul and Tyler on this one. This trof most likely will not dig deep enough to have much influence. I still think that Central LA and points west are at risk. I've been reading elsewhere that this is a Florida problem. At this point, I do not buy that solution at all, and I don't know where these folks are getting their data.

[Mr. T]

I'm with Paul and Tyler on this one. This trof most likely will not dig deep enough to have much influence. I still think that Central LA and points west are at risk. I've been reading elsewhere that this is a Florida problem. At this point, I do not buy that solution at all, and I don't know where these folks are getting their data.

This thing's not going to Florida

It's as simple as that. Upper ridge over the SE is protecting Florida right now. This will allow 93L to continue on a WNW or NW course. By the time 93L gains enough latitude to possibly be influenced by the trough by being pulled northward, it will already be too far north to bend back to the east and strike Florida.

[biggerbyte]

That is the way I see it too, Tyler. But hey, what do we amateurs know? Lol Heck, we need to become professional model readers so we can get some recognition.

Anyway, just like Wxman said, we really need to watch this as it enters the gulf. At this point, there is just as much of a chance of this being a Texas problem as anywhere else. Of course, we can narrow that down over the coming days.

[txsnowmaker]

If this were to develop, how soon next week could areas along the Gulf Coast could start to experience tropical conditions? Do most models still project an earliest landfall around Tuesday-Wednesday?

that is a good bet....probably later if it does in fact develope and the trof is as strong as some of the models are showing....personally, I dont think that trof is going to dig as much as progged. Its June...sheesh not late Sept or Oct....JMO

Thanks Paul. Of the more reliable models that are forecasting development and US impact, what are they indicating as far as potential strength (wind speed) at landfall?

[Mr. T]

That is the way I see it too, Tyler. But hey, what do we amateurs know? Lol Heck, we need to become professional model readers so we can get some recognition.

Anyway, just like Wxman said, we really need to watch this as it enters the gulf. At this point, there is just as much of a chance of this being a Texas problem as anywhere else. Of course, we can narrow that down over the coming days.

Mexico is in the cards, too (after the Yucatan)

One scenario that is equally as possible as a TX landfall would be for 93L to miss the influences of the bypassing trough off the East Coast. An upper ridge will be building in behind this trough, and that would be the feature that would shove 93L westward into Mexico (like the 12z Euro solution)

So many variables, so many days to watch this...

[Mr. T]

Thanks Paul. Of the more reliable models that are forecasting development and US impact, what are they indicating as far as potential strength (wind speed) at landfall?

The strongest I see is a minimal hurricane (cat 1) at landfall by the 18z HWRF. It really doesn't mean too much at this point, considering we still do not have a storm, yet...

[txsnowmaker]

Thanks Paul. Of the more reliable models that are forecasting development and US impact, what are they indicating as far as potential strength (wind speed) at landfall?

The strongest I see is a minimal hurricane (cat 1) at landfall by the 18z HWRF. It really doesn't mean too much at this point, considering we still do not have a storm, yet...

Thanks Mr. T, and your point is well taken. I am also reminded that Alicia only needed three days to develop from a low to a Cat 3.

[Paul]

Thanks Paul. Of the more reliable models that are forecasting development and US impact, what are they indicating as far as potential strength (wind speed) at landfall?

The strongest I see is a minimal hurricane (cat 1) at landfall by the 18z HWRF. It really doesn't mean too much at this point, considering we still do not have a storm, yet...

Thanks Mr. T, and your point is well taken. I am also reminded that Alicia only needed three days to develop from a low to a Cat 3.

Yes, but Alicia was crawling about 6mph so plenty of time to strengthen over the LC....BTW- the new CMC say hello Texas....FWIW...

[Andrew]

Thanks Paul. Of the more reliable models that are forecasting development and US impact, what are they indicating as far as potential strength (wind speed) at landfall?

The strongest I see is a minimal hurricane (cat 1) at landfall by the 18z HWRF. It really doesn't mean too much at this point, considering we still do not have a storm, yet...

Thanks Mr. T, and your point is well taken. I am also reminded that Alicia only needed three days to develop from a low to a Cat 3.

Yes, but Alicia was crawling about 6mph so plenty of time to strengthen over the LC....BTW- the new CMC say hello Texas....FWIW...[/quote]

Yes and more like hello Houston. The storm is developing pretty nicely at this point. The more and more it develops the more accurate the models should become.

[biggerbyte]

Can you guys post links? I'm on my iPhone doing this. It is a B to do much in here with this phone.

[Mr. T]

0z GFDL says FL Panhandle, 0z HWRF says New Orleans, 0z CMC says Upper Texas Coast

I full expect the Euro to continue with Mexico

We really aren't accomplishing anything until we have a defined storm already...

[Andrew]

Can you guys post links? I'm on my iPhone doing this. It is a B to do much in here with this phone.

The CMC shows it going pass Houston then coming back and just hanging around. This is clearly another indication of the troubles that these models are having with the trough and ridge and how strong they each will be.

[biggerbyte]

Wow! Thanks! Cmc means major flooding around here.

[Paul]

The EURO is running will post when finished....ugh I stay up for it...

[biggerbyte]

I'll be here too.

[Paul]

EURO into MX.....Again...

[biggerbyte]

I don't think the euro is right on this one. South, to middle Texas coast would be as far west as I personaly would suggest, at least at this point. If one wanted to go with a Mexico landing, surely most northern portions would be it. Maybe I'm missing something that the euro isn't.

[Mr. T]

EURO into MX.....Again...

Not only that, but way down there in the Bay of Campeche.

my oh my

[biggerbyte]

Get a center, then let's rock&roll...