August 2017: Looking Back at Harvey 5 Year Later

[mcheer23]

Looks like the 12z GFS is wanting to strengthen the High out west and keep Harvey buried more south and west of here than previous runs. Curious to see what the ensemble and the Euro have to say.

It's moving back toward us

[TexasBreeze]

Gets blocked out by the west ridge so it gets pushed towards the coast again. It is possible. Still a whole lot of rain though for the southern half of the state including Houston.

[srainhoutx]

Are we staying here or moving to Hurricane Central?

We made a decision a couple of years ago to keep postings of any Tropical Threats to the Gulf of Mexico Coastal Areas in the Main Forum page. I "stickied" the Thread Topic yesterday to put the Topic at the top of page.

[sau27]

Looks like the 12z GFS is wanting to strengthen the High out west and keep Harvey buried more south and west of here than previous runs. Curious to see what the ensemble and the Euro have to say.

I meant to say "so far".

[TexasBreeze]

Goes back offshore and restrenghtens. Houston area up to 12+ in rain and counting. Still around a week later (Wednesday!!!)

[stormlover]

GFS is really disturbing that is more than 12 inches of rain

[Rip76]

Looks like two models moving West now.

[mcheer23]

GFS loops back around and totally floods Houston.

[jasons2k]

I think this GFS run is a bust; it's off from the beginning.

[stormlover]

it still does what the euro does, the CMC is the one that is a bust

[davidiowx]

The CMC is well, the CMC lol.. I wouldn't completely rule it out, but I certainly wouldn't take it very serious either. I am waiting on the Euro. And it is getting fairly close to real time watching rather than watching models.

[djmike]

Quick question. No met here, just learning. Is Beaumont capable of seeing these monstrous rains as Houston? Getting worried more on the rain measurements than getting a direct or close hit from a storm. I live in a not so "drainable" area. Also do you feel the models consensus will shift back south next release? I need rain, but not 10-15".

[stormlover]

yeah GFS shows over 20 inches of rain in beaumont

[srainhoutx]

The GFS suggests some locations may receive in excess of 20+ inches of rainfall through next Tuesday from Seguin to Houston. Harvey looks to be over Galveston/High Island next Wednesday morning, if the GFS solution is correct.

08232017 12Z 156 gfs_apcpn_scus_26.png

Edit to Add:

Rainfall estimates via the GFS through next Wednesday evening...

08232017 12Z 180 gfs_apcpn_scus_30.png

[djmike]

yeah GFS shows over 20 inches of rain in beaumont

Nooo. Boo. Thanks stormlover

[sau27]

Boy did I speak too soon. That'll teach me to hold my tongue until the run is finished.

[djmike]

What time does the model track guidance update?

[Scott747]

18z guidance will be out around 3

[TXWeatherFan]

Was supposed to head to Bolivar this weekend (VRBO rental), anyone think it would still be ok to head down and ride out the storm?

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1116 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Montgomery-Liberty-Colorado-Austin-Waller-Harris-Chambers-Wharton-
Fort Bend-Jackson-Matagorda-Brazoria-Galveston-
Including the cities of The Woodlands, Conroe, Willis, Liberty,
Cleveland, Dayton, Columbus, Eagle Lake, Weimar, Sealy,
Bellville, Hempstead, Prairie View, Brookshire, Houston,
Pasadena, Katy, Tomball, Humble, Winnie, Mont Belvieu, Anahuac,
El Campo, Wharton, Pierce, Sugar Land, Missouri City, Richmond,
Rosenberg, Edna, Bay City, Palacios, Pearland, Lake Jackson,
Alvin, Angleton, Freeport, League City, Texas City, Friendswood,
and Galveston
1116 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

...Tropical Funnels and Waterspouts Possible Today...

Conditions will be somewhat supportive of isolated tropical
funnels and waterspouts across the region today.

These funnels typically last 5 to 10 minutes. Though they rarely
extend to the surface, keep an eye to the sky and take shelter
should you see one nearing the ground. They are capable of
producing minor wind damage.

Mariners should also keep an eye out, and remain a long distance
away from any isolated waterspouts. These too can produce strong
winds and rough seas.