August 2017: Looking Back at Harvey 5 Year Later

[mcheer23]

UKMET Cat 3 Galveston

[Scott747]

Were there any upper air flight missions run today for the models?

No. Nothing scheduled till early Wednesday. Data should be in the 12z runs if i have my timing down.

[Rip76]

You go take a swim at the hotel pool, and come back to this?

[mcheer23]

CMC basically copies the 12z EURO and completely floods SE TX

[DoctorMu]

GFS looking brutal per rainfall and location in the 0Z run.

[Rip76]

I'm still thinking this is a Tex/Mex.

It just seems so tough to be pulled that far north.

[stormlover]

Go look at matt lanza twitter, it has happen plenty of times

[DoctorMu]

Canadian 0z has Harvey wafting up the Texas coast and swamping the entire HGX and Corpus areas.

[Scott747]

I think at the minimum the nhc should have something of a hook putting parts of the lower Texas coast in the 5 day graph. Also with the continuing trend its about time to not only inject interests along the northern Mexican coast to begin monitoring the remnants of Harvey, but for at least the lower and middle Texas coastal residents to do the same.

*edit*

For the 1am update

[Scott747]

Well the wording didn't change. But that was one hell of a shift with the graphical outlook...

[DoctorMu]

0Z Euro run coming in. At 72 hrs similar to last run so far.

[DoctorMu]

[120] and [144] around Corpus


GEFS ensemble models:

https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/899811128737492992

About 10 in of rain in HGX

[DoctorMu]

There's a lot of time, and change is the most likely outcome, but...

[168] hr hugging the coast around Matagorda Bay.



and into Louisiana at [192] Quite similar to the 12z Monday run.

NAVGEM with another similar run at 0z.

[srainhoutx]

I see the overnight guidance (both deterministic and ensembles) continue to shift toward a more Texas event. Time to start paying very close attention and begin those early preparations such as checking your food and water supplies and replenish if needed.

My concern regarding a possible inland flood event lasting several days has increased overnight regardless of where Harvey makes its landfall whether it is a moderate to strong Tropical Storm or weak Hurricane. The very slow movement after nearing the Texas Coast is rather worrisome.

Today is the day to let family, friends, neighbors and colleagues that may not be so weather savvy know of the potential ahead for Thursday throughout the coming weekend and possibly into next Monday.

[Scott747]

6z gfs is a major coming in around Sargent and rapidly deepening up to landfall. Then slowly moves n and then ne.

[Andrew]

6z gfs is a major coming in around Sargent and rapidly deepening up to landfall. Then slowly moves n and then ne.

About as worse case as you could get. Will be interesting to see if the trend continues eastward as models detect higher influence from the weakness.

[srainhoutx]

6z gfs is a major coming in around Sargent and rapidly deepening up to landfall. Then slowly moves n and then ne.

Ugh...

[Scott747]

6z gfs is a major coming in around Sargent and rapidly deepening up to landfall. Then slowly moves n and then ne.

About as worse case as you could get. Will be interesting to see if the trend continues eastward as models detect higher influence from the weakness.

Yeah its about 15 to 30 miles away from being what ive always considered the worst case scenario with the suggested track. A major heading up 288 and slowing down after landfall.

And before we send anyone into a panic.... These are still just potential scenarios and for now is nothing more than that. I can promise you as the day progesses and if the modeling continues to suggest anything remotely like they are now... There is plenty of time to take precautions.

[Karen]

When is this expected to come ashore I dont understand all of the numbers you guys post. Thank you for all of the fantastic information you post.

[TexasBreeze]

Friday thru Saturday on that model. Maybe a shot at LA if it continues east shifts each run?? That is assuming a strong hurricane. A weaker system would probably go more west.