August 2017: Looking Back at Harvey 5 Year Later

[srainhoutx]

Today marks the Anniversary of the 1932 Category 4 Hurricane striking Freeport. Are you and your family prepared if Tropical Troubles head our way?. Now is the time to prepare and dust off those Hurricane Action Plans!

[wxman57]

Interesting to see a 10 degree shift further West with the 12Z Best Track. The Statistical Guidance for 91L may begin to trend more Westward in time. The Dynamical Guidance (ECMWF/GFS/UKMET/Canadian) probably will not change that much in the near term.

The NHC had the wrong feature identified before this morning. It's near 35W, not 25W. I think it will battle dry air until if and when it reaches the western Caribbean in about 7 days. That's where it may have a better shot at developing.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

.12 inches from a quick downpour this afternoon! I'll take it in August.

[Ptarmigan]

Today marks the Anniversary of the 1932 Category 4 Hurricane striking Freeport. Are you and your family prepared if Tropical Troubles head our way?. Now is the time to prepare and dust off those Hurricane Action Plans!

That was an intense hurricane with 150 mph winds and 935 millibars. It was also a rather small hurricane.

[Katdaddy]

The same hot and humid weather continues with a slight chance of a showers or thunderstorm. All eyes on Invest 91L now up to a 60% chance for development the next 5 days. In addition, a new TW just off the African coast may also have some potential for development. Models continue show Invest 91L tracking through the Caribbean Sea which could become a threat to the GOM by the middle of next week.

[srainhoutx]

The Tropics are very active this morning with Hurricane Gert and Invest 91L which chances for TC Development have decreased to 40% over the next 5 days, Two other Tropical Waves have emerged off the West Coast of Africa that we will be monitoring the next 10 days or so.

08152017 8 AM EDT TWO two_atl_5d0.png

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gert, located several hundred miles west of Bermuda.

1. An elongated area of low pressure located more than a thousand
miles east of the Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. This system is expected to move westward at 15
to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic Ocean, crossing into the
Caribbean Sea on Friday. Environmental conditions appear somewhat
supportive of tropical cyclone formation over the next few days
but should become less favorable once the system moves into the
Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

2. A second area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
also producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity a few
hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Environmental conditions could be conducive for some slow
development of this system over the next few days while it moves
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

3. A tropical wave over western Africa is forecast to emerge over the
far eastern Atlantic Ocean on Wednesday. Conditions appear
conducive for some development after that time while the wave moves
westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Berg

[srainhoutx]

Today, August 15th marks the 34th Anniversary of Alicia forming into a Tropical Depression and later a Tropical Storm South of Louisiana. Hurricane Alicia rapidly intensified and made landfall 25 Miles SW of Galveston as a Category 3 Major Hurricane during the early morning hours of August 18, 1983. It is certainly a day I will never forget!

[Ounce]

Ditto.

[Karen]

And the heat and humidity after the hurricane was awful

[srainhoutx]

The Tropics remain active this morning with 4 Tropical systems in the Atlantic with Hurricane Gert safely offshore of the East Coast strengthening to near Category 2 Status with 90 MPH winds making it the strongest Hurricane so fat in the Atlantic Basin.

08162017 8 AM EDT TWO two_atl_5d0.png

This day in SE Texas History, a powerful Hurricane struck Galveston after the seawall had been built in 1915.
Many will recall Tropical Storm Erin in 2007 that made landfall well down the Coast near Corpus. Flooding very heavy flooding rainfall impacted the Metro Houston Area from that Tropical Storm.

08162017 HGX History DHWVe-fWAAEmRyf.jpg

[srainhoutx]

PW values have increased a bit overnight as the Heat Ridge over Mexico shifts West and an inverted trough across the South/Central Gulf meanders West. The inverted trough may provide for enough lift to generate some widely scattered tropical showers and storms to develop later this evening into tomorrow. I saw an early morning rainbow while walking the dog around 6:50 AM just to my West in NW Harris County.

[ccbluewater]

Had a quick, heavy tropical type shower this morning about 7AM. Suprised me, but i will take it. Just to the west of where you have listed SRain, so I must have been at the pot of gold!

[srainhoutx]

A quick Update regarding INVEST 91L. The Statistical and Dynamical Guidance have been trending a bit stronger for this disturbance, particularly as it nears the NW Caribbean Sea. CARCAH and the National Hurricane Center have begun tasking Reconnaissance Missions flying out of St. Croix to investigate the tropical disturbance as it approaches the Caribbean Islands. While it lacks deep tropical showers and thunderstorms, 91L definitely has a low level circulation clearly visible on Satellite Imagery.

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT WED 16 AUGUST 2017
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z AUGUST 2017
         TCPOD NUMBER.....17-077

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (APPROACHING WINDWARD ISLANDS)
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 74          FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 75
       A. 17/1800Z                   A. 18/1130Z, 1730Z
       B  AFXXX 01DDA INVEST         B. AFXXX 0209A CYCLONE
       C. 17/1515Z                   C. 18/0930Z
       D. 13.7N 54.5W                D. 13.7N 59.5W
       E. 17/1730 TO 17/2230Z        E. 18/1100Z TO 18/1730Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES AT
       19/1130Z NEAR 14.2N 66.2W

[TexasBreeze]

Mexico bound like all of the other systems down there of late??

[Texaspirate11]

Mexico bound like all of the other systems down there of late??

To soon to tell but its a safe bet to say maybe.

[stormlover]

climatology says no!!!!

[srainhoutx]

Invest 91L is nearing 50W and right on que, showers and thunderstorms are slowly increasing. There is already a easily detected low level circulation associated with this Tropical Disturbance. A Reconnaissance Mission is scheduled for tomorrow to further investigate this developing system. Planes from 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron departed Biloxi this morning to position in St. Croix in advance of the Storm approaching the Caribbean Islands.

[Portastorm]

Given the time of year, the pattern, and the activity in the central Atlantic, it's hard for me to believe that there won't be at least one named system entering the Gulf of Mexico in the next two weeks.

[DoctorMu]

Given the time of year, the pattern, and the activity in the central Atlantic, it's hard for me to believe that there won't be at least one named system entering the Gulf of Mexico in the next two weeks.

GEM agrees. Double barrelled with a strong Atlantic cyclone. We'll see.

[Scott747]

climatology says no!!!!

Climo says no to what?

Could you elaborate?