Hurricane Alex - NHC outlooks

[Scott747]

We did this on the old board to help limit the main thread of a particular disturbance becoming clogged once it appeared that it might be a threat to the WGOM. While the addition of images is without a doubt a great part of the new board we can see how quickly pages fill up, and any small text contributions or questions can easily be missed.



200 PM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...HAITI...JAMAICA...AND EASTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

[srainhoutx]

This did work well during Ike. A lot of great information was shared in the Ike General Discussion thread as well. Our views are increasing each day as folks start to look for good and factual information.

Edit to add that no one is expecting an Ike like storm with this disturbance at this time.

[Paul]

so what do we say this thread is for? when we have the other 93L above....I am confused...

[Scott747]

so what do we say this thread is for? when we have the other 93L above....I am confused...

Model images and discos which may be what's confusing.

Discos such as the TWO, or once the invest is upgraded the more in depth discussions that are with the NHC package. More or less this thread becomes a graphic intensive thread to take pressure of the general disco thread.

I'll adjust the title.

[Hardcoreweather]

Why not put everything into the first post of the other thread ? Seems to work well for my site . Beats having 4+ threads to look at

[Paul]

so what do we say this thread is for? when we have the other 93L above....I am confused...

Model images and discos which may be what's confusing.

Discos such as the TWO, or once the invest is upgraded the more in depth discussions that are with the NHC package. More or less this thread becomes a graphic intensive thread to take pressure of the general disco thread.

I'll adjust the title.

ok Scott works for me....I was so busy with IKE that I didnt even realize we had multiple threads going.....this will work out fine...

[srainhoutx]

I suspect some of our folks need quick update without a visit to the active general discussion thread. We have done this in the past and it worked well for the Official Statements.

[Scott747]

so what do we say this thread is for? when we have the other 93L above....I am confused...

Model images and discos which may be what's confusing.

Discos such as the TWO, or once the invest is upgraded the more in depth discussions that are with the NHC package. More or less this thread becomes a graphic intensive thread to take pressure of the general disco thread.

I'll adjust the title.

ok Scott works for me....I was so busy with IKE that I didnt even realize we had multiple threads going.....this will work out fine...

Yeah back in the day on the ol dinosaur board we had a 2nd thread for just the NHC outlooks. It seemed to keep things more tidy especially as participation picked up. Now that we can add images the pages will stack up even faster. I definitely made it confusing with the initial thread title. More or less it's the same format with what S2K uses which works great.

[singlemom]

Here's hoping I don't get flammed for asking this question. I've come to respect the discussions and observations on this forum and I'd appreciate your input on this. Other boards are sounding pretty confident that the models are coming more into a concensus about direction...namely Louisiana. My questions are:

Even *I* know that models flip flop signficantly during the build up. What's happening in 93L to make those guys hone in on the Central Gulf as the direction we're heading? Also, let's say something interesting came East of the Lousiana\Texas border. How far East would be the "cut off" to where it became a Rita like event for us?

Thanks, everyone, for such an intelligent and well run board.

~Mom

[Mr. T]

Other boards are sounding pretty confident that the models are coming more into a concensus about direction...namely Louisiana.

I'm guessing you are referring to "Storm2k", in which case, it doesn't suprise me that the people there would be so uninformed to make such a statement. Model runs have flip-flopped from Florida to Texas to Mexico after each cycle. This is the truth: There is absolutely no consensus coming together at all at this time. There is no defined low level circulation and therefore no well defined center. Until we have a developed storm on our hands, there will be continued model variablitity.

Anyone saying there is a "consensus" developing right now is very ill-informed.

[Ptarmigan]

Here's hoping I don't get flammed for asking this question. I've come to respect the discussions and observations on this forum and I'd appreciate your input on this. Other boards are sounding pretty confident that the models are coming more into a concensus about direction...namely Louisiana. My questions are:

Even *I* know that models flip flop signficantly during the build up. What's happening in 93L to make those guys hone in on the Central Gulf as the direction we're heading? Also, let's say something interesting came East of the Lousiana\Texas border. How far East would be the "cut off" to where it became a Rita like event for us?

Thanks, everyone, for such an intelligent and well run board.

~Mom

I am glad you asked. It needs to be addressed. Making a consensus is ill informed, misguided, and even dangerous.

I would not consider anything a consensus at most 3 days off, which I would call for evacuation and preparation for the storm. 5 days is too early to tell and anything can change. Computer models change all the time. Even a day off, anything can change.

[singlemom]

singlemom wrote:

Here's hoping I don't get flammed for asking this question. I've come to respect the discussions and observations on this forum and I'd appreciate your input on this. Other boards are sounding pretty confident that the models are coming more into a concensus about direction...namely Louisiana. My questions are:

Even *I* know that models flip flop signficantly during the build up. What's happening in 93L to make those guys hone in on the Central Gulf as the direction we're heading? Also, let's say something interesting came East of the Lousiana\Texas border. How far East would be the "cut off" to where it became a Rita like event for us?

Thanks, everyone, for such an intelligent and well run board.

~Mom


I am glad you asked. It needs to be addressed. Making a consensus is ill informed, misguided, and even dangerous.

I would not consider anything a consensus at most 3 days off, which I would call for evacuation and preparation for the storm. 5 days is too early to tell and anything can change. Computer models change all the time. Even a day off, anything can change.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Thanks, Mr. Stats, for the input. I agree, as well.

[Paul]

Other boards are sounding pretty confident that the models are coming more into a concensus about direction...namely Louisiana.

I'm guessing you are referring to "Storm2k", in which case, it doesn't suprise me that the people there would be so uninformed to make such a statement. Model runs have flip-flopped from Florida to Texas to Mexico after each cycle. This is the truth: There is absolutely no consensus coming together at all at this time. There is no defined low level circulation and therefore no well defined center. Until we have a developed storm on our hands, there will be continued model variablitity.

Anyone saying there is a "consensus" developing right now is very ill-informed.

agreed there is no center to initialize from...nothing at the surface....just because the models continue to show a hook that is just one run...lets see what the EURO brings tonight.

[msp]

kept at 20%

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...AND THE ADJACENT
WATERS. THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED...BUT
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD AFFECT
PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND CUBA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Paul]

The 0z EURO run basically destroys NO and point eastward with a toxic soup of oil....lets hope thats one run that does not verify..

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 00!!!step/

[srainhoutx]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 231150
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUN 23 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED FROM HAITI SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PUERTO
RICO...AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF
JAMAICA...CUBA...AND HAITI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI

[sambucol]

I have a question, too. I've read dependent upon the strength of 93L as it enters the GOM, that would determine whether it would head toward the northern Gulf Coast or Texas. So, what defines the northern Gulf Coast? Texas coastline covers a very large area, and in my mind, SE Texas is on or very close to the northern part of the Gulf Coast. Are we on the northern GC?

[Scott747]

Keep in mind until we have a definitive llc these model runs are wildly speculative.

12z GFDL -

[srainhoutx]

Update keeps 30%

000
ABNT20 KNHC 231748
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUN 23 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA AND
JAMAICA EASTWARD ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT
WATERS OF THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TODAY WAS CANCELED DUE TO LACK
OF ORGANIZATION OF THIS DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
STILL APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF JAMAICA...
CUBA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND PUERTO RICO OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI

[SusieinLP]

I would think the Northern Gulf Coast would be cities like New Orleans, Biloxi, Mobile and Destin......Someone will surely correct me if I am wrong but I think we are too far west to e considered Northern Gulf Coast.....