June 2017: Typical Summertime WX To End Month

[djmike]

Does seem like ahe is taking FOREVER to come onshore!

[Nuby33]

Does seem like ahe is taking FOREVER to come onshore!

Kinda looks headed more seaward than landward.. I'm just an amateur going off of radar but to me it looks like it's also becoming more organized

[Nuby33]

Starting to make me a little nervous.. I'm not gonna lie. If things keep up like this, things are really gonna get interesting.

[Scott747]

Latest rerecon fix was further wnw.

[Nuby33]

Latest rerecon fix was further wnw.

Multiple vortices might have finally decided on a center to consolidate around.. side note.. getting some good steady moderate rain in South central Montgomery county

[kitkat4me]

Good Morning,

I have quick question.

On Friday night we are planning on driving to Tyler for a Saturday wedding.
IYO does it look safe to go or should we cancel it..

[Nuby33]

Good Morning,

I have quick question.

On Friday night we are planning on driving to Tyler for a Saturday wedding.
IYO does it look safe to go or should we cancel it..

By Friday night it should be pretty nice out

[Nuby33]

I'm hitting the panic button.. lol. Cindy is not following orders. Clearly, heading back to sea and wrapping up

[javakah]

https://gfycat.com/SecondUnkemptHorsemouse

Looks like Cindy is finally ready to come ashore (and looks like it will be just barely on the Louisiana side of the Texas/Louisiana border.

[Nuby33]

Looks like Cindy is finally ready to come ashore (and looks like it will be just barely on the Louisiana side of the Texas/Louisiana border.

So is the center not near the convection near Galveston then?

[DoctorMu]

Looks like Cindy is finally ready to come ashore (and looks like it will be just barely on the Louisiana side of the Texas/Louisiana border.

So is the center not near the convection near Galveston then?

Port Arthur

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 690,29.970

[DoctorMu]

The most outer band is within 1/4 mi of our home.

[javakah]

Sorry, I spent a few minutes trying to upload the radar loop directly onto the board here, but just had to link to it elsewhere in the end. I've updated my post with the link that shows it pretty clearly.

Or here it is again:
https://gfycat.com/SecondUnkemptHorsemouse

[DoctorMu]

A few pin-like droplets hit the yard...and poof... clobbered by the AggieDome.

[javakah]

Updated radar loop of Cindy coming ashore:

https://gfycat.com/CreepyArcticFeline

[javakah]

Hmm. Looking like it has more of a northwest trajectory around landfall than the NHC seemed to predict (they predicted pretty much a straight north path upon landfall).

[Andrew]

Looks like landfall will be just on the border based on recent radar trends

[srainhoutx]

Updated Excessive Rainfall Outlook for Today:

94ewbg.gif

...EXCESSIVE RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM CINDY...

*SIGNIFICANT AND POSSIBLY LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH TROPICAL STORM CINDY.*

EXTENSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT ON THURSDAY, AS TROPICAL STORM CINDY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND PER LATEST FORECAST TRACK FROM NHC. THE OVERALL ASYMMETRIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH MOST OF THE TROPICAL RAINS OCCURRING INVOF THE MODERATE SIZE CIRCULATION AND EAST OF THE STORM SYSTEM IN THE ANOMALOUS MOISTURE PLUME, SURGING NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. ANOTHER AREA THAT WILL BEGIN TO GET INTO THE ACTION IS UP THE OH RIVER, AS THIS MOISTURE BEGINS TO FOCUS ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE AND INTERACT WITH THE WESTERLIES ALOFT. THE GUIDANCE HAS THE OVERALL FORECAST PATTERN AND SCENARIO IN REASONABLE GOOD AGREEMENT ALONG WITH THE HEAVIER RAINFALL LOCATIONS FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN. THE BIGGEST AREAS OF CONCERN IS NEAR CINDY AND ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK OR FROM JUST NORTH OF IAH/GLS THROUGH EASTERN TX/LFK INTO NWRN LA/SHV INTO SRN-SERN AR/ELD AND EASTERN LIT INTO EASTERN-NERN AR/JUST WEST OF MEM TO JBR TO WHERE THE MS RIVER MEETS THE OH. WITHIN THIS AXIS AREAL AVG AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH EASILY LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES UP TO 10-12 INCHES. AS A RESULT, WPC WENT WITH A MODERATE AND HIGH RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN IN THIS CORRIDOR. ALSO, MULTIPLE FEEDER BANDS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOCUSED ON THE WESTERN GULF COAST OF LA AND COASTAL AREAS/SOUTHERN MS/AL AND EXTREME WESTERN FL PANHANDLE, THOUGH THIS REMAINS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN AND TOUGH TO PEG THE EXACT LOCATION OF THESE MESO FEATURES. IN THESE SOUTH TO NORTH TRAINING CONVECTIVE BANDS, WPC WENT WITH 1-3 INCH AREAL AVG AMOUNTS BUT VALUES COULD EASILY APPROACH 7-8 INCHES IN PROLONGED BANDS. WPC WENT WITH A RATHER LARGE MODERATE THREAT HERE IN ATTEMPT TO CAPTURE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THESE TROPICAL BANDS. FINALLY, MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH THE WESTERLIES SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO FLOURISH OVER TN/KY AND SOUTHERN IL/IN/OH WITH AREAL AVG AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES IS PROGGED BUT UP TO 4 POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LOWER OH RIVER AND WPC INTRODUCED A SLIGHT HERE.

[

[srainhoutx]

Thursday morning briefing from Jeff:

Tropical Storm Cindy has made landfall within the last few hours just east of Sabine Pass, TX in extreme southwest Louisiana

Tropical Storm Warning west of High Island has been discontinued.

Poorly defined center of Tropical Storm Cindy is moving inland over extreme SE TX and SW LA with 40mph. Surface observations near the coast have been gusting to around 40mph this morning east of High Island with winds across most of SE TX below 30mph, except along the immediate coast. A peak wind gust in the last hour of 46mph was recorded near Sabine Pass.

Rain bands on the western side of the circulation have resulted in 2-3 inches of rainfall overnight across Liberty and Chambers Counties and the extreme SE portion of Harris County. As the center moves inland this morning across extreme eastern TX moisture and rain bands over the NW Gulf of Mexico will spread inland across the upper TX and SW LA coasts. Some of these bands will produce very heavy rainfall of 1-2 inches in a short period of time with the highest totals likely east of I-45. Additional rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches with isolated totals up to 3 inches will be possible on top of what has fallen.

[srainhoutx]

Two weeks ago yesterday we started monitoring a favorable Hemispheric Pattern that suggested a potential Kelvin Wave and Madden Julian Oscillation was nearing the Western Caribbean Sea. An advantage we have with our KHOU Weather Forum is that we can look into the future and explore the possibilities of what the weather may bring in days and weeks ahead.

Sure enough, Scott747 mentioned two weeks ago today that the GFS longer range was 'sniffing' out a potential Tropical System that could impact the Texas Coast. There have been many twists and turns the past two weeks, but ultimately 2 Tropical Storms organized during that favorable Hemispheric Pattern.

This adventure provided an opportunity to explore the new Tropical Products being utilized by the NHC. Some learned for the first time about monsoonal gyre/troughs and how difficult they are to forecast with any certainty because of the very broad nature of a large elongated low pressure disturbance.

We watched the reliable guidance swing back and forth for days until a consensus developed around Monday night into Tuesday that landfall looked likely somewhere from Galveston to Vermilion Bay.

Many became aware of an amazing new Satellite called GOES 16 and the very high resolution of the imagery this new platform provides. There many additional measuring instruments onboard that will greatly enhance our longer range forecasting abilities as well as mesoscale features that are extremely difficult to predict even a few hours in advance. 3 new additional GOES Satellites are being built with the next launch scheduled for 2018 and the last two hopefully will be in orbit by 2020.

Most importantly, this was an excellent storm to shake off those Tropical Cobwebs and remind folks we live in a Hurricane prone Region. It is estimated that nearly 2 Million new neighbors have moved into the SE Texas Region since Hurricane Ike and most have never experienced a landfalling Hurricane. Our goal is to assist folk in how to prepare...in advance...for Hurricanes and other Weather Worries.

Thank you to ALL of our Members, long timers and the many that just joined over the last week or so. You are what makes this online Weather Community what it has become since the early 2000's. It's an honor to be a small part of this factual and reliable Weather Information Community and our Social Media TxWearherBoard Facebook and Twitter Feeds .