Hurricane Alex. 40 Miles NNE of La Pesca. 100 MPH/948MB

[Hardcoreweather]

[srainhoutx]

We were looking at a short vacation to north Houston on July 1-4 - I know it's way early and anything can happen, but I'm thinking best case we'll see some rain from this during that time frame? Sorry, not technical weather question, but I have alternatives if it looks like I'll be stuck in a hotel room with 3 kids for a few days. Thanks!

I know the feeling Aquaria. I have a house full of out of town guests for the 4th. Keep checking in as the days go by and we get a bit closer to this disturbance entering the Gulf, if it develops.

[srainhoutx]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 221500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT TUE 22 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-022

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTH OF JAMAICA)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 23/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 23/1330Z
D. 17.0N 77.5W
E. 23/1700Z TO 23/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 24/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 24/0100Z
D. 17.5N 79.5W
E. 24/0400Z TO 24/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12 HRLY
FIXES IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.

[Katdaddy]

That makes 3 of us Aquaria and srainhoutx. I am scheduled for a conference in Salt Lake City next Monday and fly back into Hobby on Friday July 1st. Hoping this stays away from the TX Coast.

[Mr. T]

That HWRF track is just silly... I just don't get some of those northerly tracks. This weak little thing isn't going to randomly turn north and plow into the higher heights over the SE...

[biggerbyte]

Agreed! ATM, I really feel this will keep a westerly component.

[Andrew]

As many have posted this area of the Caribbean has been refereed to as a graveyard for topical storms. As it moves away from this graveyard and into better conditions and warmer waters then things should really increase. I think the real key to how intense this storm gets is how long it is in the gulf. The longer it is the gulf the stronger it SHOULD get. The gulf can maintain at least a category three and even higher in most places:

[srainhoutx]

Interesting to see the GFS finally coming onboard burying a weak surface reflection in the BoC...





Also a bit stronger vorticity than we have been seeing regarding this disturbance...

[srainhoutx]

[Hardcoreweather]

[srainhoutx]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 221738
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...HAITI...JAMAICA...AND EASTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE

[biggerbyte]

Well, isn't that special? (church lady)

That looks spooky...

[sleetstorm]

I do not know if any of you have noticed, but I saw rotation with 93L just now after watching the RGB Color Infrared Loop in motion. I also watched it in motion on the AVN satellite and it was not as noticable.

[srainhoutx]

Canadian almost looks like the GFDL...

[Hardcoreweather]

[Andrew]

The Euro looks to be stronger and a lot of the models have hinted at a further west track but at this point it is way to early put any confidence in these. The one thing we can see from this though is most models predict something will form.

[Scott747]

The Euro just looks ominous. What it does show is a much slower system.

[biggerbyte]

We are going to need to watch this situation very carefully. Once 93l enters the gulf, it will begin to really get it's act together. Everyone along the Texas and LA coast should pay close attention until we get a better handle on the where, when, and the how much. At this point, folks in Mexico should watch for changes in the forecast, but I would not be afraid to admit the possibilities of someone on the US Gulf Coast getting wet.

[srainhoutx]

Code: Select all

977 
WHXX01 KWBC 221923
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1923 UTC TUE JUN 22 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932010) 20100622 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100622  1800   100623  0600   100623  1800   100624  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.5N  74.4W   16.1N  76.6W   16.9N  78.7W   17.4N  80.6W
BAMD    15.5N  74.4W   16.1N  76.3W   16.5N  78.1W   16.7N  79.6W
BAMM    15.5N  74.4W   16.0N  76.5W   16.6N  78.5W   17.0N  80.1W
LBAR    15.5N  74.4W   16.1N  76.8W   16.9N  79.3W   17.5N  81.6W
SHIP        25KTS          28KTS          35KTS          42KTS
DSHP        25KTS          28KTS          35KTS          42KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100624  1800   100625  1800   100626  1800   100627  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    18.0N  82.5W   18.9N  85.6W   19.9N  88.3W   21.2N  90.9W
BAMD    16.8N  81.0W   17.1N  84.1W   17.6N  87.1W   18.1N  90.1W
BAMM    17.2N  81.6W   17.8N  84.4W   18.6N  87.1W   19.6N  89.8W
LBAR    18.1N  83.9W   19.8N  88.0W   21.5N  91.1W   22.6N  92.7W
SHIP        52KTS          71KTS          86KTS          96KTS
DSHP        52KTS          71KTS          86KTS          36KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  15.5N LONCUR =  74.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  14KT
LATM12 =  15.1N LONM12 =  71.5W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 =  14KT
LATM24 =  14.5N LONM24 =  68.8W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  120NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN

[Hardcoreweather]