June 2017: Typical Summertime WX To End Month
The track could easily move to the left or right, the 0z models are going to be interesting to watch tonight...
Showers firing up along the boundaries from Navasota to Houston.
Aggiedome holding firm negating rain from Hearne to Navasota...as usual.
Aggiedome holding firm negating rain from Hearne to Navasota...as usual.
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srainhoutx
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Good to see these additional New Tropical Products that we've learned about the past 2 years at the National Tropical Weather Conference.
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I wouldn't place your bets on this first cone. It will likely waffle some over the next couple of days. Also the current models don't have hurricane hunter data yet. Next couple of runs should hopefully be more informative.
Houston looks like it's going to get exactly what we need...even hotter conditions and no rain.
Eric Blake had a great Tweet this morning that's worth repeating:
https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/ ... 1113349120
Twitter peeps: Stop obsessing on the track of the "center" of #93L & focus on the threat of heavy rainfall/flooding over the South!
https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/ ... 1113349120
Twitter peeps: Stop obsessing on the track of the "center" of #93L & focus on the threat of heavy rainfall/flooding over the South!
Exactly. This is why Houston will be high and dry if the guidance currently out there verifies! Things can and will change in the next day or two. Once the HH data is in the models, it should hopefully give everyone a better idea of what is going to happen tonight.unome wrote:Eric Blake had a great Tweet this morning that's worth repeating:
https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/ ... 1113349120
Twitter peeps: Stop obsessing on the track of the "center" of #93L & focus on the threat of heavy rainfall/flooding over the South!
From the advisory discussion:
Users should be aware that forecast uncertainty for disturbances is generally larger than for tropical cyclones, especially beyond 48-72 hours.
Users should be aware that forecast uncertainty for disturbances is generally larger than for tropical cyclones, especially beyond 48-72 hours.
Bastardi isn't buying into current guidance..... European Models still trend west.
Joe BastardiVerified account @BigJoeBastardi 6m6 minutes ago
More
Just saw track ensembles on euro. Only a couple to LA, Vast majority of members stronger and further west. Big model fight,
Joe BastardiVerified account @BigJoeBastardi 6m6 minutes ago
More
Just saw track ensembles on euro. Only a couple to LA, Vast majority of members stronger and further west. Big model fight,
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
I see what you did there.sau27 wrote:I wouldn't place your bets on this first cone. It will likely waffle some over the next couple of days. Also the current models don't have hurricane hunter data yet. Next couple of runs should hopefully be more informative.
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srainhoutx
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Monday afternoon Update from Jeff:
NHC has begun advisories on the tropical system 93L now in the southern Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Storm Warning is issued from the mouth of the Pearl River to Intracoastal City, LA
Tropical Storm Watch is issued from Intracoastal City, LA to High Island, TX
Discussion:
USAF mission is currently investigating the large tropical feature in the southern Gulf of Mexico and initial assessments indicate that the system does not have a closed low level circulation, but instead of very broad circulation or sharp wave axis with several smaller scale low pressure swirls rotating around the mean circulation. All of the deep convection is displaced to the east of the broad center due to WSW/SW wind shear being induced by an upper level trough over the NW Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm force winds are being noted in the large mass of convection 100-150 miles E and NE of the center.
Track:
Guidance remains split with the ECMWF and UKMET aimed at the SE TX coast and the GFS and HWRF headed for the SE LA coast. The ECMWF and UKMET have trended slightly northward today. The differences that continue to show in the forecast track are with how the surface low interacts with the upper trough over the NW Gulf of Mexico and S TX. The ECWMF shows much more interaction of the surface low with the upper level low while the GFS generally moves the system N to NNW into the weakness between the sub-tropical ridges over the central US Gulf coast.
The general consensus is to bring the system northward for the next 18-24 hours then begin a slowing of the forward speed and turn toward the NNW and possibly NW. How much of the system turns toward the NW will depend on how much the system interacts with the upper level low.
While one may want to focus on the track of the center…it should be noted that all of the significant weather will be right (east) of the center and extend hundreds of miles to the east.
Intensity:
Given the disorganized nature of the system and continued shearing winds of the NW Gulf upper level trough only slow and modest organization is expected. Most intensity guidance peaks the system as a 45-55mph tropical storm and this seems reasonable given the dry air lurking on the western side of the surface low and the upper level shear.
Will get more detailed information on potential impacts out later this evening.
Note: USAF mission into the strong tropical wave east of the Windward Islands has found a closed low level center and advisories on Tropical Storm Bret are being initiated at 400pm.
NHC has begun advisories on the tropical system 93L now in the southern Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Storm Warning is issued from the mouth of the Pearl River to Intracoastal City, LA
Tropical Storm Watch is issued from Intracoastal City, LA to High Island, TX
Discussion:
USAF mission is currently investigating the large tropical feature in the southern Gulf of Mexico and initial assessments indicate that the system does not have a closed low level circulation, but instead of very broad circulation or sharp wave axis with several smaller scale low pressure swirls rotating around the mean circulation. All of the deep convection is displaced to the east of the broad center due to WSW/SW wind shear being induced by an upper level trough over the NW Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm force winds are being noted in the large mass of convection 100-150 miles E and NE of the center.
Track:
Guidance remains split with the ECMWF and UKMET aimed at the SE TX coast and the GFS and HWRF headed for the SE LA coast. The ECMWF and UKMET have trended slightly northward today. The differences that continue to show in the forecast track are with how the surface low interacts with the upper trough over the NW Gulf of Mexico and S TX. The ECWMF shows much more interaction of the surface low with the upper level low while the GFS generally moves the system N to NNW into the weakness between the sub-tropical ridges over the central US Gulf coast.
The general consensus is to bring the system northward for the next 18-24 hours then begin a slowing of the forward speed and turn toward the NNW and possibly NW. How much of the system turns toward the NW will depend on how much the system interacts with the upper level low.
While one may want to focus on the track of the center…it should be noted that all of the significant weather will be right (east) of the center and extend hundreds of miles to the east.
Intensity:
Given the disorganized nature of the system and continued shearing winds of the NW Gulf upper level trough only slow and modest organization is expected. Most intensity guidance peaks the system as a 45-55mph tropical storm and this seems reasonable given the dry air lurking on the western side of the surface low and the upper level shear.
Will get more detailed information on potential impacts out later this evening.
Note: USAF mission into the strong tropical wave east of the Windward Islands has found a closed low level center and advisories on Tropical Storm Bret are being initiated at 400pm.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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Andrew
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There is definitely a better chance the cone shifts west with this system but I don't think it will honestly make much difference. Almost all models indicate that this storm will remain a sheared mess. Maybe some organization could occur closer to landfall but I remain doubtful. I think heaviest rain will likely occur over Louisiana and could be a couple hundred miles from the center. With that said if the ULL over the western Gulf can get out of the way as the ECMWF shows to a certain degree we could see better development over the center.
Edit to add: If you believe the NAM, watch out
Edit to add: If you believe the NAM, watch out
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I know everyone is saying not to focus on the center, and yes that is generally true as most of the rain will be east of the center for hundreds of miles.
But where the line stops is important. It will potentially divide feast vs. famine. Flood vs. hot and dry. A storm making landfall in Freeport versus the Sabine Pass could make a HUGE difference as to what kind of weather we experience right along the I-45 corridor. In this this case, it sorta does matter to us. Maybe not to someone in New Orleans or Lafayette, they will get the same result regardless, but it does matter to the people watching in Texas where that western edge sets up.
But where the line stops is important. It will potentially divide feast vs. famine. Flood vs. hot and dry. A storm making landfall in Freeport versus the Sabine Pass could make a HUGE difference as to what kind of weather we experience right along the I-45 corridor. In this this case, it sorta does matter to us. Maybe not to someone in New Orleans or Lafayette, they will get the same result regardless, but it does matter to the people watching in Texas where that western edge sets up.
Last edited by jasons2k on Mon Jun 19, 2017 5:12 pm, edited 2 times in total.
mcheer23 wrote::
Update: Actually pretty sizeable shift west by GFS.
Moves inland moves west...Very heavy rain for East of I-45
You're not kidding. CLL still on the dry side for now...
Almost as if model trolling is going on...Andrew wrote:There is definitely a better chance the cone shifts west with this system but I don't think it will honestly make much difference. Almost all models indicate that this storm will remain a sheared mess. Maybe some organization could occur closer to landfall but I remain doubtful. I think heaviest rain will likely occur over Louisiana and could be a couple hundred miles from the center. With that said if the ULL over the western Gulf can get out of the way as the ECMWF shows to a certain degree we could see better development over the center.
Edit to add: If you believe the NAM, watch out
Canadian in agreement with NAM. Crazy stuff...
jasons wrote:I know everyone is saying not to focus on the center, and yes that is generally true as most of the rain will be east of the center for hundreds of miles.
But where the line stops is important. It will potentially divide feast vs. famine. Flood vs. hot and dry. A storm making landfall in Freeport versus the Sabine Pass could make a HUGE difference as to what kind of weather we experience right along the I-45 corridor. In this this case, it sorta does matter to us. Maybe not to someone in New Orleans or Lafayette, they will get the same result regardless, but it does matter to the people watching in Texas where that western edge sets up.
Navasota to Madisonville for an inch or more. MS and AL coasts could see a foot of rain...East of Cleveland could be very wet.
