May 2017: Memorial Day/End Of May Outlook

[srainhoutx]

For those of us across the Northern half of Harris County, we've managed a drizzle at best...so far. Looking at water vapor imagery, the next upper air disturbance is cross out of Mexico into far West Texas near the Big Bend and diving out of Western Canada, we can see an impressive late May cold front dropping South into the Intermountain West. That front should arrive during the early morning Tuesday timeframe ending our chances for further significant rainfall.

I finally threw in the towel and turned on the lawn sprinkler system last Friday evening. I have had my doubts with the QPF amounts suggested by the various computer schemes and I continue to, at least for my part of the Metro Area.

[jasons2k]

Somehow I managed to get .94" up here.

[StormOne]

Model QPF outputs aren't quite as impressive as more historical flooding events, but this is the right time to convey the message "turn around, don't drown." Tomorrow morning could be a doozy with multiple FFWs issued. The good thing about this is the ground is dry, especially for people who were not hit last night, so whoever gets storms tonight will have that saving grace. It is impossible to pinpoint exactly where the heaviest rain falls, as that depends on where the front ends up. I expect that a watch will be issued at least somewhere in our area the next couple of shifts. This will be the type of thing where "nowcasting" will be very important. It will be key to check out radar trends and see where the heaviest training or slow movers begin to set up.

NAMNSTSGP_prec_precacc_033.jpg

NAMSGP_prec_precacc_051.jpg

gfs_tprecip_houston_8.jpg

As you can see, there is one model that shows relatively unimpressive totals, and that is a possibility. I obviously can't post Euro data (rather not get in legal trouble), but it has slightly unimpressive totals, but bullseyes Montgomery County with 4.7 inches. As always, we cannot pay attention to where the bullseye is, but the fact that one exists. This is something to keep an eye on as models are horrendously different and we're only 24 hours out (not even)

[Ounce]

Somehow I managed to get .94" up here.

Well done! Did you fool the rain by changing your address? Paint a bullseye on your roof? Graft? Corruption?

[Katdaddy]

That was some brief but very heavy tropical rainfall in NW Galveston, County.

[Cromagnum]

Managed a quick 1.5 inches down in Brazoria county this morning.

[Rip76]

Is there no website anymore to stream HGX NOAA weather?

[houstonia]

Storms brewing up along I-10!
Haven't reached quite as far south as Chinatown, but I'm crossing my fingers!

[mckinne63]

I am hearing thunder in the distance. Can see some dark clouds, but sun is still shining in Stafford.

[Ounce]

I'm noticing Bear Branch elementary school in Magnolia with a north wind of 10 on Weatherbug, while at Duschesne on Memorial and Chimney Rock to be south at 2.

Sure have a long line of storms heading north from Karnes City (SE of San Antonio) NW along 59 to Cleveland and growing.

[don]

Fwiw the 12z Euro shows a large swath of rainfall stretching from Harris county and points north and east into Louisiana of 3-5+ inches of rain tonight into tomorrow.

[srainhoutx]

Fwiw the 12z Euro shows a large swath of rainfall stretching from Harris county and points north and east into Louisiana of 3-5+ inches of rain tonight into tomorrow.

The Texas Tech WRF seems to initiated rather well suggesting the storm complex to our West may continue to translate East during the overnight hours into tomorrow. Fingers crossed!

[srainhoutx]

Tropical funnel cloud near Fulshear

[mckinne63]

The line to the west of Stafford appears to be lifting north. We are in the center of everything. Ie: we are dry

[DoctorMu]

The line to the west of Stafford appears to be lifting north. We are in the center of everything. Ie: we are dry

You should be getting wet...around Now.

Storms firing along the front. Impressive cluster in the Hill Country moving in our general direction. The front should dampen the cap...and thus more likely for a feast.


As always when precipitation feasting occurs in SE Texas, be diligent of road conditions. Most flow-related deaths occur to people in vehicles.

[DoctorMu]

Somehow I managed to get .94" up here.

Well done! Did you fool the rain by changing your address? Paint a bullseye on your roof? Graft? Corruption?

haha I'm excited to turn my sprinklers off until June sometime. 1.7 in so far.

[mckinne63]

The line to the west of Stafford appears to be lifting north. We are in the center of everything. Ie: we are dry

You should be getting wet...around Now.

Storms firing along the front. Impressive cluster in the Hill Country moving in our general direction. The front should dampen the cap...and thus more likely for a feast.


As always when precipitation feasting occurs in SE Texas, be diligent of road conditions. Most flow-related deaths occur to people in vehicles.

Only a few sprinkles. It looks like everything is breaking apart.

[DoctorMu]

GFS sticking to 1-2 inch totals through the next 72 hours.

[davidiowx]

Storms starting to explode over Ft Bend county. Appear to be strengthening as well

[cperk]

I have gotten 1.2 inches in about 20 minutes.