January 2017 -Warming Trend To End The Month

[davidiowx]

Thought our NWS took the word Sleet out of the package?

I thought they did last night as well. But they just posted this a little bit ago:

200
FXUS64 KHGX 051625
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1025 AM CST Thu Jan 5 2017

.UPDATE...
A few tweaks were made to the previous forecast to account for obs
and current satellite trends. A cold front will reach our far
northern tier of counties in the next several hours before pushing
off the coast later this evening. We will be taking another look
at the precipitation potential for Friday and Friday evening but
for now agree with the previous forecast that wintry precip is not
likely. 11

I guess they are going to revisit the scenario again, however, they don't feel that winter precip is likely.

[Heat Miser]

Looks like the words not likely pretty much means they have?

[srainhoutx]

The very short range HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) guidance suggests some potential wintry mischief near Austin into College Station tomorrow morning.

[srainhoutx]

Wind Chill Graphic for North Texas:

[Heat Miser]

College Station better batten down the hatches for this Snowmageddon event. That's exactly 105 miles away from southern Harris County, about 46 miles away from Northeast Harris County.
Austin's a good 163 miles away from where I reside and 111 miles from western Harris County.
My powers grow stronger, Srain.
.

[wxman57]

Projected model soundings for our area tomorrow have a narrow band of below-freezing air between about 1500-3000 ft. Above that, temps rise to around 46F at 5000 ft. That's a profile which could produce a few sleet pellets tomorrow between 9am and 6pm, which would quickly melt as they hit the ground. We see some sleet almost every winter. Sleet is a long way from snow down here. This sub-freezing airmass just doesn't look deep enough for snow in Houston.

[jasons2k]

I despise wind chill readings in the forecast. That's my contribution for the evening.

[srainhoutx]

Thursday night briefing from Jeff:

Arctic boundary moving across SE TX this evening…strong cold air advection will onset over the next few hours.

Latest guidance today has trended colder both tonight and through the weekend. Colder reading tonight now bring the surface freeze line deeper into SE TX and roughly along a lien from west of Huntsville to about Hempstead to Columbus to N of Victoria. This is supported by both the NAM and GFS and the latest run of the rapid refresh HRRR. Upglide of warm moist air above the shallow cold dome will increase after midnight and into much of Friday when light rain/drizzle will be likely across a good portion of SE TX. With lower surface temperatures could see a window of 3-6 hours (roughly 300-900am) across the western 1/3rd of the area where freezing rain or freezing drizzle may be possible. This is also the area where amounts are expected to be the least. Feel roadway temperatures will still be cooling into Friday morning and while surface temperatures may fall to 30-32 bridges will likely be still in the mid or upper 30’s. Think any very minor impacts from any light freezing drizzle will be across Burleson, Washington, Madison, and Colorado Counties if at all. Latest LAMP guidance does not get anywhere N of US 59 out of the 30’s on Friday and think this is the right idea…generally steady temperatures in the 34-37 range NW of a Huntsville to Victoria line and 36-39 for much of the rest of the area except 38-41 along the beaches. North winds will howl 15-25mph driving wind chills into the 10’s and 20’s. Friday evening we will be very close to local criteria for wind chill advisory as temperatures fall below freezing and winds stay up.

Next item of interest will be low temperatures both Saturday and Sunday with raw numbers coming in now at 19 for College Station, 20 for Conroe, 24 for IAH and 22 for Victoria. More confident we will be into Hard Freeze criteria north of HWY 105 Saturday morning and maybe again Sunday morning and likely even south of HWY 105…could be as far south as FM 1960/HWY 6 corridor. Looks like the entire area except the beaches will freeze both Saturday and Sunday mornings with upper 20’s into the coastal counties and likely even down well into the coastal bend. Could even see 30-32 down into S TX. Friday night and Saturday morning will feature a freeze with strong winds still in progress resulting in a damaging advective type freeze as the protective action of covering sensitive vegetation will be less useful as the strong winds will remove the “greenhouse effect”. Sunday morning will be the coldest morning and many locations will be at or below freezing for 8-12 hours.


Precautions should be taken to protect sensitive vegetation, pets/livestock, and north of HWY 105 exposed pipes.

[DoctorMu]

The very short range HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) guidance suggests some potential wintry mischief near Austin into College Station tomorrow morning.

Just got back from San Antonio - what a blue norther. Cold and precip are overperforming - Hot Springs starting to get pounded, and band of snow descending towards north Texas. It's cold column all the way up north.

My concern is DRY...but the Gulf low may be a paradigm changer. It may be verga to start off with, but some hope here in CLL that a surprise is in store.

Our son's flight to ATL was cancelled for tomorrow. TWC is asleep at the whee (again), but this storm is going to sit down ATL for a couple of days. Family in North Carolina are going to see a heavy blank 3-7 inches worth and lows in the single digits.

[DoctorMu]

College Station better batten down the hatches for this Snowmageddon event. That's exactly 105 miles away from southern Harris County, about 46 miles away from Northeast Harris County.
Austin's a good 163 miles away from where I reside and 111 miles from western Harris County.
My powers grow stronger, Srain.
.

I'm calling it. We won't be above freezing tomorrow. Wintry mix, first as verga - icy bridges. Some real flakes. Then a three dog night.

[StormOne]

Hull field reported light snow. Mistake?

[redneckweather]

33 here near Lake Conroe with a dew point of 27 and strong radar returns. Hmmmm.

[StormOne]

33 here near Lake Conroe with a dew point of 27 and strong radar returns. Hmmmm.

Problem is how humid the air is. I'm thinking the precip type there should stay as rain.

[redneckweather]

33 here near Lake Conroe with a dew point of 27 and strong radar returns. Hmmmm.

Problem is how humid the air is. I'm thinking the precip type there should stay as rain.

Just virga right now. Looks like the heavier radar returns are to the south of me in the Spring/Woodlands area.

[Katdaddy]

The colder weather has arrived with gusty N winds. Wind Advisories are in effect along the coastal areas and radar is picking up some light precip across portions of Central and SE TX with very little if any reaching the ground. A few ice pellets may reach the ground across inland areas this morning. Not buying the light snow at Sugarland Hull Airport. NTX could still see some snow later this morning and this afternoon. Skies will begin to clear tonight across TX allowing very cold temps. Expect a widespread freeze across SE TX tonight and again Saturday night. Mid to upper 70s by next Wednesday and Thursday.

[srainhoutx]

Sleet and light rain mix in NW Harris County with temperatures near freezing. Getting reports of icy road near Bastrop now. Careful out there as temperatures are continuing to fall.

[Portastorm]

Temps here in the Austin area are colder than predicted. Today's high may not exceed freezing.

Patchy freezing precip reported in San Marcos, San Antonio, and Bastrop County. Some icy bridges in these areas too. Not much to speak of here in the Austin metro area as of 7 am.

[srainhoutx]

Friday morning briefing from Jeff:

Damaging Freeze likely this weekend

Very cold arctic air mass pouring into the region this morning.

Freeze line has progressed southward into SE TX very near what the HRRR was showing last evening or roughly from Huntsville to Hempstead to Columbus. Radar is showing some light returns within the freezing air mass over the NW ½ of the region and some of this may be reaching the ground and freezing on contact…freezing drizzle or freezing rain. Surface temperatures have fallen into the upper 20’s across Burleson, Madison, and Brazos Counties and think any icing of bridges and overpasses would be in this region if at all. Further south while temperatures are at or below freezing ground warmth will likely prevent any surface ice accumulation. Not expecting temperatures to fall to freezing across Harris, Fort Bend, or Montgomery Counties.

As the precipitation shifts towards the south this afternoon the cold air will deepen and there may be a narrow window for sleet to mix with the rain or few a few snow flurries.

Wind chills this evening will lower into the 1’s and 10’s across the region as temperatures fall into the 20’s and wind remain in the 10-20mph range. Currently expecting wind chills between 9-13 at College Station and 16-21 across Houston. Wind chills from Columbus to Huntsville and NW this evening and overnight will be getting into dangerous levels and persons should limit time outside and completely cover all skin.

Will lower forecasted lows both Saturday and Sunday mornings and this will result in a damaging hard freeze Saturday morning north of HWY 105 and Sunday morning N of US 59 including a large portion of NW Harris County. May need to lower the numbers listed below a couple of degrees.

Duration of sub-freezing temperatures and intensity will be extremely damaging to tropical vegetation and in some case exposed pipes may freeze and burst…especially with outdoor sprinkler systems. Many areas will see freezing temperatures 8-10 hours Saturday and 10-15 hours Sunday. Precautions should be taken to protect plants, pipes, pets/livestock today.

Saturday Morning:
HWY 105 N: 20-24
US 59 N: 24-28
US 59 S: 29-33

Sunday Morning:
HWY 105 N: 18-21
US 59 N: 22-26
US 59 S: 26-30

[jasons2k]

I'm getting some rain mixed with sleet now.

[srainhoutx]

Winter Weather Update from Jeff:

METAR and public reports of light rain mixing with sleet across NW Harris and Montgomery Counties with surface temperatures down to 33 in NW Harris County. Not expecting any accumulation of ice or sleet SE of a line from Huntsville to Conroe to Waller to Katy to Columbus. NW of this line very light amounts of sleet or freezing drizzle may occur on elevated objects not in contact with the ground warmth.

Freezing drizzle has resulted in numerous bridges glazing across Bastrop County where portions of Hwy 71 and HWY 21 are currently being closed due to ice on bridges and numerous accidents. Portions of US 290 are also icing on bridges west of Giddings. Reports of icing on bridges appears to match well with surface temperatures in the upper 20’s being able to overwhelm the ground warmth. Could see some minor icing patches the next 2-4 hours across western Colorado County, western Washington County, all of Burleson County, and western Brazos County.