INVEST 92L

[Paul]

with model agreement still coming in and the all knowing EURO showing the feature. All bets are off how strong it will be if it developes....there is plenty of energy in the GOM right now...

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[srainhoutx]

I think the bottom line is we will need to watch what happens once this area of disturbed weather makes it way into the GOM. The 12Z HWRF (TS 4E run for those that follow) suggests a weak TS as 92L or remnants exits Cuba heading through the FL Straits and into the SE GOM.

[Ptarmigan]

Computer models for 92L.



HWRF has it emerging as a tropical storm in 96 hours.

GFS 192 hour model for 1200Z.


It has the tropical wave that came off of Africa on June 9 and has it making landfall on Texas.

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUN 19 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS...WHICH COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...AND HAITI AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN

[cisa]

Not sure what is concerning me more, being in Mexico mid to late wk or what we might come back to Saturday.

[Paul]

Watch the GFDL fall more in line with the GFS in its next run...just a hunch... When the GFDL bites watch the HWRF follow...another hunch. and finally watch the EURO it will trend MX to Western LA in the coming days....

[Ptarmigan]

Looks like there is little shear around 92L.

[biggerbyte]

Watch the GFDL fall more in line with the GFS in its next run...just a hunch... When the GFDL bites watch the HWRF follow...another hunch. and finally watch the EURO it will trend MX to Western LA in the coming days....

Word!

[Scott747]

Watch the GFDL fall more in line with the GFS in its next run...just a hunch... When the GFDL bites watch the HWRF follow...another hunch. and finally watch the EURO it will trend MX to Western LA in the coming days....

Word!

Is the GFDL and HWRF even doing model runs on 92L?

[Paul]

Noticed that too on the GFDL not running anymore runs....the 0z GFS fizzles it...Navy still has it as an Invest...

But my last post was in reference to how I look at the models. Typically the GFDL follows the HWRF since they both are basically the same model. They do have different intensity it seems when we have something legit to track.....

The EURO IMO is the best track wise once we have a storm. The CMC upgraded or not is good for watching for potential developement. It doesnt do to well track wise and its intensity is overdone most of the time. it also has a nack of wanting to destory every major city in the GOM and EC for some reason....

[Scott747]

Judging from the FSU tropical model site, the last GFDL run on 92L was the 18th 0Z. No sense running that on an open wave facing 20 to 30 knots of shear. The GFDL loses systems not ready to develop.

Yeah it was a bit confusing when they both stopped running 92l early on the 18th. Didn't know if maybe there was another source out there that BB and Paul knew of.

[srainhoutx]

NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al922010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201006201134
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

[wxman57]

I do see a very good trend in the latest GFS runs. New runs build the ridge in stronger along the northern Gulf coast next week, similar to the Euro. Also similar to the Euro is that the GFS no longer builds a big upper low in the SW Gulf next week. So the steering currents that would be able to take this system toward the LA coast have changed, at least in the model runs. This would indicate two things - a track more westerly across the northern Yucatan around Thursday an inland into northern Mexico next weekend and a lesser chance of development.

Looking better for the oil spill area.

[biggerbyte]

Judging from the FSU tropical model site, the last GFDL run on 92L was the 18th 0Z. No sense running that on an open wave facing 20 to 30 knots of shear. The GFDL loses systems not ready to develop.

Yeah it was a bit confusing when they both stopped running 92l early on the 18th. Didn't know if maybe there was another source out there that BB and Paul knew of.

Sorry for the confusion. Word, meaning glad to see Paul posting again, not about the models.

Everything about 92l is pure speculation at this stage. It does need to be watched, of course.

[srainhoutx]

ABNT20 KNHC 201737
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUN 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWARD
INTO THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...WHICH COULD CAUSE FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO
...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...CUBA...AND JAMAICA AS THE WAVE
MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Mr. T]

It looks like models, and particularly the previously robust GFS model, has lost any potential of 92L possibly developing in the Gulf or its remnants pushing their way towards the Texas Coast. However, we'll still keep an eye on this area of disturbed weather as it heads into the Gulf to see where its moisture will track...

Of more interest is the Euro modells continued support for some kind of system developing in the Caribbean and heading into the Gulf in about a week.