January 2017 -Warming Trend To End The Month

[mcheer23]

Lol. 12z is a joke. Okay GFS

[davidiowx]

Lol. 12z is a joke. Okay GFS

Not surprising one bit though. Models are going to flip flop as we near the event. I don't put any faith in anything they are saying this far out. Just follow the trends as we start early next week!

[TexasBreeze]

Drier and warmer has been a trend at least around here with that model. EC not impressed either.

[srainhoutx]

C08jtZxXcAIdycE.jpg

Ryan Maue‏ @RyanMaue
Hype meter just cranked up as ECMWF 12z finally has a model forecast w/crippling snowfall for next weekend. Fits the pattern

[DoctorMu]

Ensembles are still picking up sustained cold from the 6th through the 9th. Precip is going in and out of the forecast...and note that today has shown expect a surprise wrinkle. I heard the sleet about 30 min ago...lasted about a minute, but still pretty cool.

CMC, Euro, Euro, even the dreaded TWC all have cold in place - convergence and agreement.



Anything is possible...although overrun and mixed rain/sleet is the default solution.

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon updated Climate Prediction Center Day 6 to 10 Outlook suggests very cold Arctic air funneling down into Texas with increased chances of precipitation during the Outlook Period.

[Heat Miser]

My prophetic abilities tell me that much if not most of us will see miserably cold air and drizzle/rain. To see anything in the frozen category would take a 100 mile trip to our north, maybe further.
And I'd just assume it stay that way. Freezing rain is miserable for all concerned.
Mark the date of this post, I'd like to be surprised.

[srainhoutx]

My prophetic abilities tell me that much if not most of us will see miserably cold air and drizzle/rain. To see anything in the frozen category would take a 100 mile trip to our north, maybe further.
And I'd just assume it stay that way. Freezing rain is miserable for all concerned.
Mark the date of this post, I'd like to be surprised.

Well Carmac The Great, you missed the sleet falling from the sky today along with all the other Professional Forecasters...

[jasons2k]

"Carnac The Magnificent"

[srainhoutx]

"Carnac The Magnificent"

[BlueJay]

Would one of the Carnacs please give me a heads up when it is necessary to do some serious plant coverings?
Thanks!

[srainhoutx]

Would one of the Carnacs please give me a heads up when it is necessary to do some serious plant coverings?
Thanks!

Absolutely! We'll be monitoring things very carefully. Meanwhile let me take this opportunity to wish everyone a very Happy and Prosperous New Year. It's been a tough year for many of us. Many have experienced so much personal loss, be it weather related particularly back in the Tax Day Flood as well as other Flood Events and many of us have experienced family losses with deaths of our loved ones.

A New Year begins a new chapter and for me, it begins the 10th year watching over our KHOU Weather Forum. I am deeply humbled and honored to have been a part of this Weather Community over the years. Many of you are like family to me and I appreciate everyone's support throughout the years. Happy New Year Gang!

[DoctorMu]

My prophetic abilities tell me that much if not most of us will see miserably cold air and drizzle/rain. To see anything in the frozen category would take a 100 mile trip to our north, maybe further.
And I'd just assume it stay that way. Freezing rain is miserable for all concerned.
Mark the date of this post, I'd like to be surprised.

Well Carmac The Great, you missed the sleet falling from the sky today along with all the other Professional Forecasters...

It was a real shocker. No mistaking that sound on the roof!

[Katdaddy]

Its an honor to be part of the KHOU Weather Forum family Srainhoutx. We have all done a great job of keeping the public informed and warned over the years. Many kudos to the discussions we have everyday about weather. We have a great weather family.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I come back on sunday and I'm bringing this below zero and snow vodka cold back with me! I don't want to leave but I will if it means HGX sees the freezer!

[cperk]

Its an honor to be part of the KHOU Weather Forum family Srainhoutx. We have all done a great job of keeping the public informed and warned over the years. Many kudos to the discussions we have everyday about weather. We have a great weather family.

I'll second that.

[jasons2k]

Happy New Year to all!! I am honored to enjoy weather watching with my local forum family. That 10 years seems like a blink. Next year will mark 20 years when many of us on Storm2k started posting on the Lowe's/Palm Beach Post Storm 97 forum. Amazing. Back then I had to go to the Tech library to get online...

[Ounce]

Ditto, y'all.

[StormOne]

00Z Euro runs still coming in, so can't go off of that yet.

00Z GFS is weird. It brings in cooler air Wednesday, then it lingers up until Saturday, when a possible warm front comes up and warms us almost drastically, then that gets pushed back on Sunday, which allows colder air to resume. Wish I could attach pics, but my lazy butt doesn't want to go through the effort to save a picture. However, the same GFS run brings a tropical-looking system to the Atlantic (not us) early the week after, so that GFS run not looking overly trustworthy right now. Definitely should continue to look at stuff and consider everything as a possibility.

[srainhoutx]

Conce rn increasing for New Years Day into Monday that we may have severe thunderstorms across the Region dynamics appear to be coming to that all modes of severe weather may be possible. Strong gusty winds, damaging hail and heavy rainfall rates appear to be the primary threat, but cannot rule out an isolated tornado or two, particularly Sunday afternoon throughout the evening and overnight hours of early Monday. We will continue to monitor these short term trends very carefully on Sunday into Monday. Stay weather aware folks.