December 2016- End Of Year Forecast

[djmike]

Well you know its gonna be boring when this board isnt hopping. I dont even have to read comments to find anything out. Lol 2 comments in 5 hours. Yup its gonna be a slow boring xmas and warmup. Boo.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

At least GFS is coming in line with Euro with a couple of fronts and seasonal temps next week

[MontgomeryCoWx]

https://twitter.com/genscapewx/status/8 ... 3318558720

[srainhoutx]

Wednesday morning briefing from Jeff:

After the great cool down…the great warm up will be underway!

Old arctic surface high pressure cell is moving eastward off the east coast with winds over SE TX turning more onshore. A weak front may cross the area this evening helping to delay the big warm up by a day…but by early Friday strong southerly return flow will commence. Strong warm air advection pattern will be in place this weekend with fairly high amounts of moisture forecasted to move into the area. Will almost certainly be dealing with coastal sea fog, now that water temperatures have cooled well into the 50’s and dewpoints by Saturday will be near or above 60. Southerly wind trajectories are not the most favorable for sea fog compared to ESE/SE, but the dewpoint contrast of the cold water will likely help compensate for the difference.

Overall expect clouds to rapidly increase from south to north on Thursday and much of the region will remain cloudy with a 20-40% chance of rain through the weekend and into early next week. Best chance of rain actually looks to come Sunday (Christmas Day) as moisture reaches its highest values and a mid level short wave moves across the area. Could even see a few thunderstorms for areas east of I-45 if we can squeeze out enough instability.

Temperatures both Saturday and Sunday will be warm with highs pushing the upper 70’s on Christmas Day and lows near 70. Will likely see a few 80’s out there, but don’t think we will hit the 83 (record) we saw last year. Coastal sea fog bank should be well entrenched by Sunday which will lift into a layer of low level clouds, drizzle, and showers inland during the day.

Overall a warm, cloudy, foggy, weekend with a chance of passing area showers.

[srainhoutx]

https://twitter.com/genscapewx/status/8 ... 3318558720

That signal has been showing up for a while now and appears to get stronger. Perhaps someone can start a January 2017 Topic and we can explore the opportunities/possibilities regarding next month with the busy Holiday period upon us. 'Hint'...I keep see analog years in the Day 11+ Range that brought memorable wintry weather worries across Texas...

[srainhoutx]

For those dreaming of snow for Christmas, today is the anniversary of a 24 hour snow event that impacted much of the area December 20th through 21st, 1929.

[srainhoutx]

If the 12Z ECMWF solution is correct, we may see a decent shot of colder air around the middle of next week. Still way too much uncertainty regarding our sensible weather forecast, but we'll monitor the trends over the Christmas Holiday Weekend.

[Heat Miser]

Wow, all the talk of winter's revenge, albeit this past weekend and a few days after were cold, has now ended. We're now talking the possibility of colder air the middle of next week.
BTW, I'm opening a psychic hotline soon seeing my prophetic ways in predicting flip flop weather for Christmas about a week ago.
No need to thank me.
Amazing.

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon ECMWF EPS suggests colder weather as we prepare to ring in the New Year.

[BlueJay]

Today is the WINTER SOLSTICE. It is officially winter now.
Currently 69F in The Woods.

[ticka1]

wait until january and frbruary and maybe extend into march and april

[srainhoutx]

The overnight guidance continues to advertise a very progressive pattern developing next week with a series of quick hitting shots of colder air arriving from next Monday throughout the week. Then it appears a significant shot of colder air arrives New Years Eve.

[cperk]

The overnight guidance continues to advertise a very progressive pattern developing next week with a series of quick hitting shots of colder air arriving from next Monday throughout the week. Then it appears a significant shot of colder air arrives New Years Eve.

srainhoutx can you please forward wxman57 a copy of this post and maybe he will stop beating his chest about warm weather.

[unome]

The overnight guidance continues to advertise a very progressive pattern developing next week with a series of quick hitting shots of colder air arriving from next Monday throughout the week. Then it appears a significant shot of colder air arrives New Years Eve.

how accurate are ECMWF 240-hr forecasts, for temperature ?

[MontgomeryCoWx]

More accurate than the GFS

[wxman57]

It appears that even the ECMWF has given up on next Monday's cool front. Here's a meteogram from the 12Z GFS. The 12Z Euro is a little less cold around New Year's Day, with temps reaching only the lower 40s and highs near 60. It may take another 3-4 weeks before any really cold air is able to make it down here.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

So glad to be leaving SE Texas next week for Montana. I will be back just in time for below normal temps on the day after New Years.

[Texaspirate11]

Before I trek up to the Cold Tundra for Christmas, where temps are in the upper 20's (BOO!!!)
I want to wish you all a wonderful Holiday and thanks for all you do.
Here's to a cane free 2017 - and continued warmth !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Thanks for allowing my forum on here helping others -
All the Best

Texaspirate

[srainhoutx]

The overnight ECMWF suggests a quick shot of colder air arrives on December 30th.

12232016 00Z ECMWF f168.gif

I want to wish everyone a Very Merry Christmas and a Prosperous New Year!

[cperk]

I would also like to wish all the forum members and their families a Merry Christmas and a happy New Year.I look forward to discussing all the snow,ice and sleet we will be seeing in our neck of the woods as we move further into winter.Be safe.