December 2016- End Of Year Forecast

[jasons2k]

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0781
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
258 AM EST SAT DEC 03 2016

AREAS AFFECTED......UPPER TEXAS COAST INTO COASTAL SOUTHWEST LA...

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 030800Z - 031400Z

SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED
IN THE VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH TO
THE COAST THIS MORNING ...PRODUCING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TO SOUTHWEST LA
COAST.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY EXPANDING IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IN THE VICINITY OF WARM FRONT DRIFTING
NORTH ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARDS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND
ADJACENT LA COAST. RADAR ESTIMATES SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN OVER THE GULF WITH IS ACTIVITY.

THE SHOWERS/STORMS ARE FOCUSED ON A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY AXIS OFF THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE FORECAST THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE
NORTH THIS MORNING...WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING NORTH IN
TANDEM WITH THE FRONT.

A POOL OF HIGH AVAILABLE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2-2.25
INCHES IS IN PLACE. THIS IS 2-2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. UPPER DIVERGENCE MAXIMA CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO
SOUTHWEST LA WILL AID THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IN PRODUCING ASCENT.
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF AN 850
MB JET NEAR 40 KT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO REINFORCE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND CELL REDEVELOPMENT.

THE 05-06Z HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH RUNS ARE INDICATING 6 HOUR
RAINFALLS OF 6-8 INCHES ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST JUST WEST OF
THE LA BORDER. THE HIGH RES WRF ARW/NMMB/NSSL WRF ARE LOWER
AROUND 3-4 INCHES BUT TARGET THE SAME REGION.
INITIAL FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE 3-4 INCHES IN 6 HOURS SO A
POSSIBLE THREAT LEVEL IS INDICATED...WHICH MAY BE UPGRADED TO
LIKELY LATER.

[jasons2k]

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
301 AM CST SAT DEC 3 2016

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-032015-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.A.0012.161203T0901Z-161205T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...CALDWELL...CLEVELAND...
COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CONROE...CORRIGAN...
CROCKETT...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...
FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...
HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...MADISONVILLE...
MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PALACIOS...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...
ROSENBERG...SEALY...SHEPHERD...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...
THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...TRINITY...WEIMAR...WHARTON...WILLIS...
WINNIE
301 AM CST SAT DEC 3 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...JACKSON. IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AUSTIN...
BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT
BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...LIBERTY...
MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...
TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON AND WHARTON.

* THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING

* HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY
INTO MONDAY. UNUSUALLY MOISTURE RICH AIR FOR DECEMBER FLOWING
INTO THE REGION WILL INTERACT WITH A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST TODAY AND SUNDAY. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO AND THEN THROUGH THE STATE WILL
PROVIDE ABUNDANT LIFT TO THE SATURATED AIRMASS LEADING TO
PERIODS OF RAIN MIXED WITH BANDS OR CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STEADY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD NOT POSE A THREAT OF
FLOODING BUT THE BANDS THAT FORM MAY PERSIST OVER THE SAME AREAS
INCREASING THE FLOOD THREAT. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH THE SOIL ACROSS THE
REGION HAS BEEN RELATIVELY DRY TWO DAYS OF RAINFALL IS LIKELY
BEGIN TO SATURATE THE SOIL. HEAVY OR INTENSE RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO STREET FLOODING AND FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.
BY SUNDAY THE LIKELIHOOD THAT SMALL STREAMS AND BAYOUS RISE
WILL INCREASE AND THESE MAY EVENTUALLY FLOOD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION RANGE FROM WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF BANDS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES WITH SOME
ISOLATED PLACES RECEIVING 8 TO 11 INCHES. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AND THIS SHOULD
SWEEP IN DRY AIR AND END THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL BY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* STREET FLOODING AND FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE THE MOST
LIKELY IMPACTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. SMALL STREAMS AND BAYOUS MAY
BECOMING INVOLVED IN FLOOD ON SUNDAY AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL
STREET FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

[unome]

https://www.harriscountyfws.org/

and

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afo ... 1612031036

189
NOUS44 KHGX 031036
PNSHGX
TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-032236-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
436 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

...Rainfall Reports...

Location Amount Time/Date
Jamaica Beach 2.88 in 0301 AM 12/03
Galveston Causeway 2.52 in 0313 AM 12/03
Giww @ State Highway 124 Bri 2.28 in 0411 AM 12/03
2 NW Bayou Vista 1.93 in 0330 AM 12/03
Port Bolivar 1.92 in 0314 AM 12/03
Holcolmbe 1.81 in 0314 AM 12/03
La Marque 1.63 in 0400 AM 12/03
Moses Lk Tide Gage 1.61 in 0330 AM 12/03
Wharton 1.56 in 0415 AM 12/03
18 E San Leon 1.44 in 0414 AM 12/03
Highland Bayou 1.44 in 0314 AM 12/03
5 SSE Katy 1.36 in 0412 AM 12/03
Oak Ridge North 1.29 in 0415 AM 12/03
5 W Mission Bend 1.28 in 0414 AM 12/03
6 SSE Katy 1.27 in 0411 AM 12/03
East Bernard 1.18 in 0400 AM 12/03
6 W Wharton 1.18 in 0400 AM 12/03
9 SW Tomball 1.16 in 0417 AM 12/03
Brazos River Near Freeport 1.16 in 0136 AM 12/03
1 E Freeport 1.11 in 0401 AM 12/03
San Felipe 1.07 in 0411 AM 12/03
9 WNW Jersey Village 1.06 in 0419 AM 12/03
4 ENE Fulshear 1.06 in 0414 AM 12/03
1 NW El Campo 1.05 in 0400 AM 12/03
6 WSW Jersey Village 1.01 in 0410 AM 12/03
9 WNW Jersey Village 1.00 in 0417 AM 12/03
7 WSW Jersey Village 1.00 in 0416 AM 12/03
Mason Ck Prince Ck Dr 1.00 in 0311 AM 12/03
5 S Tomball 0.99 in 0415 AM 12/03
5 NW Mission Bend 0.98 in 0402 AM 12/03
8 WSW Boling-iago 0.98 in 0400 AM 12/03

Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying
equipment and exposures. Not all data listed are considered official.

$$

NWS Houston/Galveston TX
IRIS System

[unome]

https://twitter.com/iembot_hgx

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afo ... 1612031033

20
FXUS64 KHGX 031033
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
433 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Heavy rain event underway and will continue through the weekend.

Warm front/coastal trough poised near the coast and showing some
efforts of moving into the Matagorda Bay area...dewpoints of 73-75
aimed at the coast there with more northeasterly flow in place
along/up the coast from there. Tides are elevated and a Coastal
Flood Warning was issued earlier...see marine section below for
more on that. So far the LLJ 35-45 knots has been focusing most
of the rainfall near the coast around Galveston but that should
shift eastward somewhat and with that the widespread rain with
embedded and elevated heavy showers and thunderstorms will expand
out of the Hill country and develop overhead in the inland areas
of SETX. Rainfall rates may not be as high but the thunderstorms
that form will still be capable of 2+" per hour rates. Expecting
two areas of heavier rainfall through the afternoon hours. A
corridor from around Brenham through Crockett and a second where
the richest moisture axis impinges on the stationary front
probably from around Freeport to Houston to Liberty. Side note:
the NCAR ensembles appear to be converging on this solution as
well between 15-19z. Still think that rainfall totals of 8-11
inches are within reach today across the area possibly slightly
favoring the more southern corridor given the available PW (near
2" record values for this time of year and greater CAPE/Shear)
and proximity to the frontal boundary. Galveston Scholes Field
already reporting 2.44" as of 1028z nearing the daily record of
2.64" (1965) and will probably surpass that record. Other records
may be in jeopardy as well.

OLD MAX RAINFALL RECORDS

......SAT............SUN
CLL 3.02/1949 7.54/1913* (*RECORD FOR DECEMBER)
IAH 2.50/1949 1.96/1930
HOU 2.13/1965 2.55/1930
GLS 2.64/1965 2.11/1887

Severe threat mainly in the form of brief tornadoes will be
possible near the coast today along with waterspouts over the
coastal waters. Frontal boundary with easterly winds and LLJ from
the SSW will yield very high shallow helicity. Already quite a few
storms in the Gulf have exhibited supercell characteristics and
with the expectation that the coastal trough/warm front will creep
northward likely moving into the coastal counties will add the
mention of severe for the coastal counties. Hail and damaging wind
threat looks fairly low at this time.

Tonight and Sunday the axis of heaviest rainfall will probably
focus across the central and southern areas as the frontal
boundary eases out into the Gulf (lowering the severe threat
for SETX) which may focus any spinners over the Gulf waters.
Widespread rainfall overnight and Sunday with deeper convection
mainly southern areas and stratiform and a few embedded bands of
deeper convection north. As the upper low slowly marches east it
will finally begin to accelerate Monday and this should push a
Pacific cold front across S TX and through SETX Monday
afternoon...but across SETX that will be putting one final squeeze
on the atmosphere to produce another round/large band of showers
and thunderstorms. Severe threat may be increasing with the cold
front and mainly in the central and eastern counties where greater
instability may be available.

Drying weather Monday night into Tuesday as weak Pacific high
builds into the area. A much stronger cold front plunges south
late Wednesday with very chilly temperatures on tap as this cold
airmass blankets TX and may see our first freeze in the northern
counties Friday morning. Freeze line may make it into the Houston
area so stay tuned.

45

&&
.MARINE...
Early this morning, a tightening pressure gradient north of a slowly
lifting warm front has resulted in frequent wind gusts to gale force
across the eastern 0-20 NM waters. Have issued a short Gale Warning
through 6 AM CST in response, with a somewhat relaxing pressure
gradient in the wake of this feature allowing winds to decrease
later this morning. Seas remain in the 8-10 feet range and expect
seas to begin to decrease during the day as winds relax. However,
have extended the ongoing Small Craft Advisory through most of the
day with seas expected to remain above 7 feet for most of the day.

Tides are running above to much above normal this morning, with
water levels at Galveston Pier 21 peaking around 3.75 feet above
MLLW. While winds are expected to decrease during the day, expect
tidal issues to persist into Sunday as swell from the Gulf keeps
water levels elevated.

Otherwise, periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected to
continue across the marine areas through Monday. Some of these
storms may be strong to marginally severe and capable of gusty winds
and a waterspout or two. Drier conditions are expected by Tuesday as
a Pacific front sweeps into the western Gulf.

Huffman

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 54 48 54 50 60 / 100 100 90 70 70
Houston (IAH) 65 54 59 54 65 / 100 100 100 90 90
Galveston (GLS) 69 65 67 61 69 / 100 100 100 100 90

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for the following
zones: Austin...Brazoria...Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...
Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston...Grimes...Harris...
Houston...Jackson...Liberty...Madison...Matagorda...
Montgomery...Polk...San Jacinto...Trinity...Walker...
Waller...Washington...Wharton.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM CST Sunday for the following
zones: Brazoria...Chambers...Harris.

Coastal Flood Warning until 6 AM CST early this morning for the
following zones: Galveston.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM CST Sunday for the following
zones: Galveston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for the
following zones: Matagorda Bay.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until noon CST today for the
following zones: Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Waters
from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60
NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for the
following zones: Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport out 20 NM.

Gale Warning until 6 AM CST early this morning for the following
zones: Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20
NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...45
Aviation/Marine...14
Radar...42

[unome]

http://www.met.tamu.edu/ciams/lma/index.html

https://www.lightningmaps.org/?lang=en# ... o=0;b=;n=0;

[srainhoutx]

A quick update regarding the Arctic front later next week, the overnight guidance continues to trend colder with the freezing line extending down to the Coastal Counties. For the gardeners on those with sensitive tropical plants, it appears there is the possibility of near 6 to 12 hours of near or below freezing temperatures along and South of I-10 next Thursday night into early Friday morning. Stay dry this weekend and watch those low lying areas that typically flood and where waters pond on our roadways.

[unome]

http://tinyurl.com/NWS-Enhanced-Data-Display

some stations across Texas entering the "action" stage

[srainhoutx]

Saturday morning briefing from Jeff:

Significant heavy rainfall event underway over SE TX

Increasing potential for flooding

Flash Flood Watch in effect until 1200am Monday

Discussion:
Overnight two primary bands of heavy rainfall have developed. The first has been anchored along the coast with Doppler radar already showing 6 inches in portions of the coastal waters and the other from near Columbus to Lake Livingston…across NW Harris County where totals of 1-2 inches have occurred. Coastal trough is nearing the coast this morning and making an attempt to move inland…several of the storms near the coast have shown rotation overnight. Looks like this feature will push inland some today and shift the axis of stronger storms just offshore inland some. At the same time the band of heavy rainfall across the northern portions of the area will sag southward. Moisture has increased to near record levels for December and would certainly support hourly rainfall rates of 2-3 inches in the heavier storms.

Rainfall Amounts:
Have already had 1-2 inches across the NW half of the county and this area seems favored this morning for additional rainfall in this training SW to NE band…could see totals up to 4 inches by late morning in this part of the county. This was my main concern with this event…the adding of rainfall over time on to the slower responding creeks in the NW part of the county. Rainfall seems to be matching well with the forecast and additional amounts through early Monday of 6-8 inches will be possible. As grounds saturate more run-on will be generated and rises on watersheds will become greater.

Tides:
Coastal Flood Warning issued for Galveston County.

Strong ENE winds have pushed coastal tides into the 3.0-3.5 ft range this morning. Eagle Point is currently reporting 3.5 ft and Pier 21 3.4 ft. Clear Lake gage at Kemah is at 3.53 ft. Tides will remain elevated this morning with strong ESE winds in place pushing water against the coast. Should stay just below critical levels on the west side of Galveston Bay, but overwash on Bolivar is more likely with wave run-up.

72-hr Forecasted Rainfall Totals (In addition to what has fallen):

[Katdaddy]

A busy weather weekend has begun:

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
723 AM CST SAT DEC 3 2016

TXC167-031615-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0219.161203T1323Z-161203T1615Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GALVESTON TX-
723 AM CST SAT DEC 3 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1015 AM CST.

* AT 720 AM CST...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED HEAVY RAIN CAUSING
MINOR FLOODING ON GALVESTON ISLAND. OVERFLOWING POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS WILL RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING. SOME AREAS THAT ALREADY HAVE
MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE A FEW AREAS ALONG STEWART BETWEEN 47TH AND
69TH...SOME INTERSECTIONS ON HARBORSIDE DRIVE. TWO TO FOUR INCHES
OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN WITH MORE STORMS MOVING INTO THE
ADVISORY AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
GALVESTON ISLAND WEST END...GALVESTON PIER 21...JAMAICA BEACH...
THE STRAND...GALVESTON PLEASURE PIER...PELICAN ISLAND...
SCHLITTERBAHN...SCHOLES FIELD...MOODY GARDENS...
OFFATTS BAYOU AND GALVESTON STATE PARK.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0782
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
858 AM EST SAT DEC 03 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX...SOUTHWEST LA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 031400Z - 032000Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY RAINFALL RATES/TOTALS LEADING TO POSSIBLE FLOODING
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON

DISCUSSION...CURRENT GOES-E WV LOOP DENOTES FAIRLY SOLID UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS E TX INTO LA AT THIS TIME WITH STRONG RIGHT
ENTRANCE TO 130 KT POLAR JET ACROSS OK/N TX WITH LARGE SCALE
ASCENT EXTENDING ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST. S/W AXIS
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL TX WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ALLOWING FOR THE TRAILING CONFLUENCE ZONE/TROF TO SUPPORT VEERING
LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE NW GULF WHILE CONTINUING TO
SUPPORT STRONG SELY FLOW EAST OF 94W. THIS ORIENTATION WILL ALSO
SUPPORT A MORE UNIFORM DIRECTIONAL SHEAR TO ALLOW FOR CELLS THAT
DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL WARM FRONT TO ORIENT FAVORABLY FOR SOME
REPEATING OF CONVECTIVE CORES. THIS IS PARTICULARLY THE CASE
GIVEN THE UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND THE
VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT A BACKBUILDING REDEVELOPMENT
AREA AS FAR WEST MATAGORDA BAY. IR/VIS IMAGERY DENOTES A N-S
BOUNDARY THAT IS A GOOD MARKER OF THIS WESTERN EXTENT.

THE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF AOA 25-30KTS FROM NEARLY
ALL SOUTHERLY DIRECTIONS...SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS VERY
STRONG AND SHOULD BE MAINTAINED AS WELL ENHANCING EXCELLENT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT OF MODERATELY UNSTABLE (SBCAPES TO 2000 J/KG)
AND DEEP MOISTURE WITH TDS IN THE LOW 70S AND TPWS INCREASING UP
TO 2.0". GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FORCING THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
RAIN RATES INCREASING FROM 1.5 TO 2"/HR LIKELY LOCALLY HIGHER
TOWARD 18Z. THIS BARES SIMILARITY TO HI-RES CAMS SUCH AS THE 12Z
HRRR AND 00Z WRF-ARW BOTH FOCUSED FROM GALVESTON BAY OVER TO LAKE
CHARLES WITH 6HR ADDITIONAL TOTALS IN THE RANGE OF 3-5"; HOWEVER
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY THE AXIS MAY BE AS FAR
NW AS THE SE HOUSTON METRO. THOUGH FF GUIDANCE VALUES ARE HIGH
THIS SHOULD POSE SOME FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS PARTICULARLY GIVEN
THE RAINFALL THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN THIS MORNING.

OF NOTE: FURTHER NORTH IN THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BIG PINEY REGION OF TX INTO W CENTRAL LA...WITH LACK OF
INSTABILITY REACHING THE BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT...VERTICAL ASCENT
MAY BE STUNTED AND RATES MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR FLASH FLOODING.
HOWEVER...FAVORABLE TRAINING PROFILES SUGGEST SOME FLOODING
CONCERN LIKELY ON LONGER TIME SCALES. WILL CONTINUE TO
EVALUATE/MONITOR THIS AREA FOR ANY FUTURE MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION
DISCUSSIONS.

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...

[unome]

https://twitter.com/NWSHouston/status/8 ... 9531466752

NWS Houston ‏@NWSHouston

Galveston has already set a daily rainfall record, with 3.39" of rain so far today. This surpasses the daily record of 2.64" in 1965. #txwx

[BlueJay]

Dickens on the Strand will be fun!

[srainhoutx]

The pesky upper low did dig well South into the Baja Peninsula/NE Mexico and several embedded disturbances are rotating beneath the upper low from the Eastern Pacific. Rainfall will continue until that upper low moves closer to Texas sometime later on Sunday into early Monday.

[unome]

https://www.harriscountyfws.org/GageDet ... surfaceBox

Little Cypress Creek @ Becker Road nearing top of banks

Stream Elevation for sensor 1233 is 194.12'
Reading on 12/3/2016 10:27 AM

(was 197.8 last April)

[unome]

https://www.harriscountyfws.org/GageDet ... surfaceBox

Bear Branch @ 2978 nearing top of bank
Stream Elevation for sensor 2343 is 179.43'
Reading on 12/3/2016 10:46 AM
Top of Bank (TOB) 179.85'

[unome]

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwat ... %20warning

TORNADO WARNING
LAC023-TXC245-361-031730-
/O.NEW.KLCH.TO.W.0031.161203T1659Z-161203T1730Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1059 AM CST SAT DEC 3 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN CAMERON PARISH IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
EAST CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1130 AM CST

* AT 1058 AM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER PORT ARTHUR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
GROVES AND PORT NECHES AROUND 1110 AM CST.
BRIDGE CITY AROUND 1120 AM CST.
ORANGEFIELD AROUND 1125 AM CST.
WEST ORANGE AROUND 1130 AM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE
HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 2990 9409 3014 9380 2992 9364 2985 9379
2997 9376 3000 9379 2998 9383 2999 9386
2997 9384 2986 9393 2981 9388 2985 9394
2983 9395 2982 9392 2981 9395 2980 9394
2981 9393 2978 9394 2976 9398
TIME...MOT...LOC 1658Z 233DEG 26KT 2988 9396

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

MM

[srainhoutx]

A quick update regarding the Arctic air headed our way next week. The GFS suggests the freezing line will extend along the I-10 Corridor next Thursday night/early Friday morning with a secondary surge of Arctic air arriving one week from tomorrow with another freeze potential.

[djmike]

Looks like the Golden Triangle area (Beaumont, Port Arthur and Orange) is getting quite a bit as that huge line of training cells continue and will continie for a while over the area. Street flooding and county actions are beginning with flooded streets and underpasses get inundated. Local news mets are urging folks to stay off he roads today if at all possible. Many areas approaching 4" so far and much more about to come. Stay weather aware folks. I especially if you're heading east on I10 thru the Beaumont area.

[Heat Miser]

Yup, watching radar looks like the bulk of the heaviest rain has been to the south southeast. Just a rainy day here near 528 and 45, not much of an event, yet.
That could all change.

[Heat Miser]

And for those wising on a 1983 or 1989 event, keep wishing. The longer I've lived here the more I realize or suspect that event, especially 1983, is probably a once in a or twice in a lifetime event.