October 2016- More Cool Weather?

[Ounce]

While our local weather is very quiet, the Pacific NW and Northern California are preparing for Hurricane force winds and extremely heavy rainfall over the next 5 days. Perhaps a hint of a pattern change coming for our Region in the next 7 to 10 days.

Looking at the Portland NWS Forecast Discussion, they mention an "Ides of October storm" to hit them.

The next significant storm, now referred as the Ides of October
storm, incorporates the remains of Typhoon Songda, which is currently
around 42N, 175E. As the remains of this typhoon enter the 180-200
kt Jet Stream over the Central Pacific, it will get entrained into
the storm track and become the system which will impact the Pacific
Northwest on Saturday.

[Katdaddy]

A 20% to 30% chance of thunderstorms this afternoon for SE TX as we welcome Summer back through early next week.

[srainhoutx]

Friday morning briefing from Jeff:

Near record high temperatures expected this weekend as summer continues.

A weak cool front has stalled over the northern portions of SE TX overnight yielding a few showers and thunderstorms along the boundary. A short wave trough crossing north TX currently is producing a line of strong thunderstorms which is sagging southward. Short term meso scale models are showing a little bit more activity today than they were showing yesterday especially north of I-10 where the frontal boundary is stalled and the lift from the tail end of the short wave is strongest.

After today…sub-tropical ridging will return to the region with temperatures rising to near early to mid September levels instead of mid October. Overnight lows will only fall into the 70’s with highs in the lower 90’s. Could be near record highs both Saturday and Sunday along with humid conditions will push heat index values to near 100.

Little change in the upper level pattern into at least the start of next week before the current storm system which will be assaulting the Pacific NW moves into the central plains by the middle of next week. This storm system will bring our next best chance for rainfall and potentially a strong cold front to the region around Wednesday and Thursday of next week. This is still well out in time and the details remain vague at this point…but something to watch.

[DoctorMu]

Outflow boundary preceding the cold front approaching CLL. We had a nice bolus of rain yesterday and are topping off the tank.

If the price to pay is 70°F+ dew points and 90°F+ temps until Wednesday for the rain, I'll gladly accept the punishment. Actually, if the breeze picked up more typical of Spring, it wouldn't be so bad. Late Summer/Early Fall is a nadir for wind in the Brazos Valley.

[srainhoutx]

Warm weather looks to continue throughout the weekend into early next week, but changes are lurking mid to late next week as a strong fall cold front begins to push across Texas Wednesday into Thursday. Rain chances gradually increase Wednesday as this strong frontal boundary pools Gulf moisture across the Region with the possibility of a strong thunderstorm or two Wednesday afternoon into the early morning hours of Thursday as the cold front pushes into the Coastal Waters.

The overnight guidance indicate gusty Northerly breezes sweep across the area Thursday as a strong Canadian High builds across the Southern Plains. Early indications suggest as this Canadian High builds across Texas, winds decouple allowing for the coolest air of the Fall Season, possibly in the mid to upper 40's including Metro Houston to arrive next Friday night/early Saturday.

[Katdaddy]

One last Summer weekend ongoing across SE TX with tropical skies and temps in the upper 80s and low 90s. The transition begins mid-week as a strong cold front moves across TX and into the GOM Thursday afternoon. Awaiting more details from Houston-Galveston NWS AFD.

[tireman4]

Goodness gracious. If you love Summer, this is your time. Today through Wednesday, man oh man. Sweatfest for me and my running ( and biking)....If you love Fall, Thursday onward is your time. As Srain and Katdaddy alluded too, we will be toasting the next three days, with Fall coming late week.

00
FXUS64 KHGX 171203
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
703 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016


.AVIATION...
Low MVFR/IFR decks generally remaining north of Houston metro
though 14-15Z. Metro and southern terminals may experience a
brief hour or two of periodic MVFR decks with fog being confined
to more wind sheltered (CXO) or rural open expanse (LBX) hubs.
Region-wide scattering out past 15Z...VFR through the day. Near
20 knot off-the-surface southerlies will mix down this afternoon,
especially west of metro, translating to 10-15 mph sustained surface
winds. Little change in the large scale weather pattern suggests a
repeat concerning early Tuesday morning (returning) low MVFR ceilings.
31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
Unseasonably warm and near record high temperatures will continue
for a couple more days across much of Southeast Texas with a
persistent onshore flow at the surface and ridging in the mid/upper
levels. Heights fall starting on Wednesday as the ridge moves off
to the east, and this will help to lower our afternoon highs a couple
degrees. The well advertised strong cold front and associated
increasing rain chances are still on schedule to move across
Southeast Texas Wednesday night through Thursday. It will become
breezy (especially near the coast) and cooler behind the front as
surface high pressure begins to build into the area. A northwest
flow aloft and offshore surface winds will help to bring our area
mostly clear skies with lows generally in the 50s and highs
generally in the 70s Thursday night through Saturday night. Onshore
winds come back to the area beginning on Sunday as the surface high
moves off to the east resulting in warming temperatures, and at this
time it looks like this trend will persist through at least the first
half of next week.

Here are area record highs for the next two days:

Today Tuesday
-College Station: 92 in 1915 92 in 2004
-Houston IAH: 93 in 1895 96 in 1895
-Houston HOU: 91 in 1972 94 in 1947
-Galveston: 88 in 2003 87 in 2007

42

MARINE...
Generally light, to occasionally moderate, southeastern flow over 2
to 3 foot nearshore/3 to 4 foot offshore seas through mid week. The
cold front (or pre-frontal wind shift trough) is timed to reach the
coast and local Gulf waters Thursday morning with cold air advection
and a tight backside gradient strengthening offshore winds early
Friday. Areawide precipitation will fill in just downstream of the
approaching front Wednesday through early Friday. Friday morning
advisory level winds driving up nearshore seas to 5 feet/offshore to
around 7 or 8 feet. The progressive eastward movement of the exiting
trough will have western high pressure filling in its wake Saturday.
Thus, conditions will significantly improve Saturday into Sunday. A
moderate northeast wind to start out the weekend will weaken and
veer more east Sunday, 2 to 4 foot average seas Saturday will lower
to around 2 to 3 feet Sunday. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 91 72 91 71 89 / 10 10 10 10 20
Houston (IAH) 92 72 92 71 89 / 10 10 10 10 30
Galveston (GLS) 87 77 87 78 86 / 10 10 10 20 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...42
Aviation/Marine...31

[tireman4]

Ughh...just ughh. If you love Summer, today and tomorrow are your days for celebration. If you love Fall, then Thursday begins your joy.


00
FXUS64 KHGX 181747
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1247 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

.AVIATION.../18Z TAFS/
Visible satellite shows mainly stratocu cloud streets aligned
with boundary layer flow. Overall expect VFR CIGS through the
afternoon and evening. LLJ will be running 15-20kts again about
2000-3000ft AGL so expect another round of MVFR/IFR ceilings for
KCLL/KUTS/KCXO. KCXO may still have visibility down to LIFR
levels. Otherwise Houston terminals should be on the edge of MVFR
ceilings but will keep VFR in TAF. May get some fog again at KLBX
as has been the case the last few mornings.

Overpeck

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Another warm/rain-free day on tap as the upper high lingers over
the area. Current forecast appears to be on track and no changes
are planned at this time. 41

High Temperature Records
TODAY 10/18 WEDS 10/19
CLL 92-2004 97-1921
IAH 96-1895 94-2004
HOU 94-1947 90-2004
GLS 87-2007 86-2004

[jasons2k]

The NWS AFD noted some disagreement for next week between the Euro (wetter) and the GFS (drier with ridging). We shall see - hope the Euro is right.

On anther note, they lowered Thursday's rain chances from 50% down to 40%. I hope this isn't a trend...

[Katdaddy]

Dense fog across inland areas of SE TX. Another hot tropical October day ahead for SE TX with increasing moisture with scattered showers along the Upper TX Coast. A line of scattered thunderstorms will move across SE TX tomorrow with the well advertised cold front. Hopefully the area get some well needed rainfall ahead of the front before perfect Fall weather arrives

[tireman4]

One more day of Summer. My goodness.

00
FXUS64 KHGX 191112
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion...COR
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
610 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Dense fog formation, mainly over more rural expanses, will impact the
region through 9 AM. Another unseasonably warm day expected across
southeastern Texas per the state still being under the influence
of mid to upper level ridging. Broad western CONUS troughing will
begin to work on this ridging through the day, pushing the axis of
the ridge over the southeastern U.S. as lower heights move into
the Plains states. While a more efficient warm air advection
pattern will be occurring through the day, with a higher moist
nearshore air mass moving onshore that will be producing thicker
southern county cloud cover and scattered showers /isolated storm,
there should be enough breaks in the clouds to again warm many
interior locations to 90 F or slightly higher. As has been the case
these past few days, a few maximum temperature records will be
threatened (please see Climate section below).

A pre-frontal trough ahead of a main cold front in the vicinity of
the Red River Valley will pass through this time tomorrow, a few
hours on either side of sunrise. The primary surface cold front
will travel across the region tomorrow afternoon, reaching the
coastline during the early Thursday evening hours, as the upper-
mid trough axis advances east into the lower Mississippi River
Valley. The highest probability for widespread rain (showers) with
embedded storms within more organized convection will impact the
area during the day Thursday. A thin line of convection (just ahead
of the main front) has a good chance of affecting the northern
forecast area. Higher PWAT air coming ashore will allow -TSRA
clusters to form and move north, possibly merging with that northern
line to create a more organized line of convection that will move
off the coast latter in the afternoon into early evening. Overall,
the chances for the majority of the CWA to receive measurable rain
are high, but overall accumulations should remain low, or under an
inch. The bulk of the cold and dry advection will occur on Friday,
moderate northerlies scouring out the skies and regulating afternoon
warmth to the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Autumn finally arrives this weekend, clear skies with a weak veering
easterly breeze. The temperature forecast calls for seasonable
afternoon warmth in the upper 70s to lower 80s, near calm clear
overnights/morning conditions conducive for a significant chill out
as interior readings fall into the upper 40s to lower 50s Saturday /
middle to upper 50s Sunday morning. Upper ridging that will envelope
the state over the weekend will begin to move east early in the work
week with onshore flow returning Sunday. Weak disturbances moving up
within the southwesterly flow pattern, along with surges of near 1.4
inch precip waters off the Gulf, will generate periods of mainly
coastal/southern county showers from Monday afternoon through the
last full week of the month. 31

&&

.CLIMATE...
Today`s Maximum Temperature Records (Year) with forecast:

Forecast:
CLL 97 (1921) 92
IAH 94 (2004) 92
HOU 90 (2004) 91
GLS 86 (2004) 88

&&

.MARINE...
Tides are running 0.75-1.0 ft above normal. Will probably see
observed water levels near 3 ft a few hours before/after the
high tide this evening (844pm). This would put water close to or
slightly over parts of the Highway 87 @ Highway 124 intersection.
Don`t expect any other locations to have issues.

Onshore flow 8-15kt will persist thru tonight. Prefrontal trof will
move into the coastal waters Thurs morning w/ just light offshore
winds in its wake. Winds will begin picking up before sunset and
substantially increase Thurs evening and overnight as the front itself
and cooler airmass arrives. Small craft advisory will be required into
parts of Friday until speeds/seas begin to diminish. Onshore flow
resumes Sat night as high pres moves off to the east. 47

&&


.AVIATION...
Areas of dense fog have developed between KCLL & KIAH. This should
burn off by mid morning and conditions should lift back into VFR
territory. There is a bit more moisture around today and do anticipate
scattered showers to develop ~17-22Z inland with daytime heating.
Warm layer of air aloft will limit tstm chances however. Patchy
fog again possible overnight (along with some sct precip near the
coast and offshore). Cool front and bkn band of shra will approach
KCLL mid morning Thurs and metro area toward lunchtime. Winds
will shift to the north, but there will probably be a lag of
several hours until the gustiness arrives. 47

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 93 70 81 52 77 / 20 30 40 10 0
Houston (IAH) 92 72 85 56 79 / 30 20 40 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 88 78 83 67 76 / 30 30 50 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Austin...Colorado...Fort Bend...Grimes...Harris...
Liberty...Montgomery...San Jacinto...Waller...Washington.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...31/47

[BlueJay]

We are getting a sprinkle!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Last day of 'Hell Weather' this year? It's looking that way.

[tireman4]

Last day of 'Hell Weather' this year? It's looking that way.

I sure hope you are right. Now, Wxman 57 would disagree, but me..I want it to end. AFD from HGX today..

000
FXUS64 KHGX 191835
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
135 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

.AVIATION...
Widely scattered showers this afternoon should continue to develop
and will likely see isolated thunderstorms mainly east of a line
from CXO-SGR. Surge of moisture should arrive toward morning and
will probably see scattered showers expanding out of the coastal
waters near GLS between 08-12z. Prefrontal troughing swings into
the area in the morning/combined with light flow and landbreeze
which should make for favorable conditions for the development of
IFR/LIFR conditions across sites from CLL-UTS-CXO and at least
TEMPO MVFR cigs for IAH/HOU 10-14z. Erosion of low cigs with
increase in rainfall coverage after prefrontal trough passage.
Some guidance showing a stronger cap which may limit precip to
SHRA during the day Thu but will probably have a pocket or two of
TSRA. Moderate northerly flow in the wake of the cold front will
prevail Thu night/Fri morning.
45

[jasons2k]

I just know, the pre-frontal trough with this is going to spoil it:

Some guidance showing a stronger cap which may limit precip to SHRA during the day Thu but will probably have a pocket or two of TSRA.

Nice shower @ work along the Waterway, but it looks like I barely had anything at home.

[redneckweather]

Had a good storm west of Conroe this afternoon. That saved us just in case we miss out on any rain tomorrow.

Also, is someone else writing the afternoon discussions out of the Houston/Galveston office? Not a fan. That's all I've got...carry on.

[jasons2k]

Lots of rain at work and on the drIve home through Oak Ridge. Got into Imperial Oaks and the pavement went dry about a half mile from home...I didn't get squat.

[TexasBreeze]

It poured and poured again by Stuebner Airline/Louetta. Yard needed it...

[Katdaddy]

Scattered thunderstorms moving onshore this morning along the Upper TX Coast. This will continue ahead of the cold front today. Additional showers and thunderstorms will move across SE TX ahead of the cold front which will be offshore by late evening. Beautiful Fall weather tomorrow and the weekend.

[Ounce]

Lots of rain at work and on the drIve home through Oak Ridge. Got into Imperial Oaks and the pavement went dry about a half mile from home...I didn't get squat.

Have you been ducking those scam IRS collection calls? This could be how those bad people are getting to you.