A.V. wrote:Honestly, I don't mind prolonged dryness from the October-April period; in fact, I wouldn't complain if Dec-Feb all were desert dry, with nothing but sunshine. As long as the summer/warm season is wet, the rest of the year doesn't matter.
Enjoy the cool SE TX weather this morning. Its 48F in Conroe and Hunstville. Temps and moisture will increase through the week. Slight rain chances arrive Tuesday with the increasing Gulf moisture. By the end of the week temps will be running 7-10 degree above normal as the next front stalls in NTX.
Katdaddy wrote:Enjoy the cool SE TX weather this morning. Its 48F in Conroe and Hunstville. Temps and moisture will increase through the week. Slight rain chances arrive Tuesday with the increasing Gulf moisture. By the end of the week temps will be running 7-10 degree above normal as the next front stalls in NTX.
Have loved the low dew point and reducing A/C bill. We had some rain with the last front passage - will have to wait about 10 more days for the next one. Nice dew points until Wed, then the nasty wet, smelly blanket of humidity and SE winds returns.
Gulf moisture increased quickly overnight to bring scattered showers well inland for a lucky few. Looks like very warm temperatures are ahead throughout the medium and extended range (October 20th or so) and the possibility of more tropical mischief developing in the SW Caribbean that may pose a threat to Florida in the longer range.
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A.V. wrote:Honestly, I don't mind prolonged dryness from the October-April period; in fact, I wouldn't complain if Dec-Feb all were desert dry, with nothing but sunshine. As long as the summer/warm season is wet, the rest of the year doesn't matter.
Widely scattered isolated showers and thundershowers possible the next few days. Mainly partly to mostly sunny skies through the rest of the week and into the weekend across SE TX. The next cool front still looks to stall before entering SE TX tomorrow and Friday and the weekend will feel more Summer-like than Fall. The yard enjoyed yesterday's 0.62" rainfall.
The last vestiges of Summer are still around. Fall is coming..shorter days...longer nights. This is the bi-polar part of Fall.
000
FXUS64 KHGX 121126
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
626 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2016
.AVIATION...
Radar, satellite and surface observations show main areas of lower ceilings/
fog/showers early this morning are to the west of our TAF sites. Think
most of the sites will stay VFR today after possibly brief MVFR/IFR
conditions generally in a 12Z-14Z time period. With enough daytime
heating, some SHRA development could get close to some of our inland
TAF sites (maybe closest to CLL?), but not confident enough to mention
in the 12Z package. Models generally had this morning`s lower ceilings
and fog a little further off to the west, so not a whole lot of forecaster
confidence on how things will pan out today and tonight. 42
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
DISCUSSION...
In general, upper ridging remains the primary weather driver over
the next week, bringing above average temperatures and precip
chances that are, for the most part, low. However, there will be a
couple opportunities for sporadic increases in precip potential.
However, this is relatively speaking, and even the highest PoPs
don`t stray terribly far from climo.
Today and tonight...
The plume of Gulf moisture that helped fuel
scattered showers across the Houston metro Tuesday morning has
slid down the coast, with isolated to widely scattered showers
over the Gulf waters and immediate coastal areas around Matagorda
Bay. Expect this moisture plume to linger - and indeed, models
even keep it in place in a limited fashion from that area
northeastward across far inland portions of the area. Between that
and potential upglide with the lighter onshore flow, keep slight
chances in place over a surprisingly large area. Given the trend
of tapering off in shower activity, went with slight chances here.
Otherwise, expect middle to upper 80s temps.
Thursday through the weekend...
A cold front will approach the region in this timeframe. Globals
like the GFS and Euro remain unconvinced in the forward progress
of this front into SE Texas with a relatively stout upper ridge
over South Texas. The NAM still does bring the front, or at least
some type of convergent pre-frontal trough in to kick off a
rainy/stormy Thursday, but I decidedly trust the way the globals
are handling the interaction of the upper trough/ridge
interaction and lean the forecast heavily that way.
Next week...
The weekend looks drier and warmer as the northern stream trough
moves on and weak ridging again becomes the main attraction.
Things become much more complex deeper into the week as a powerful
jet streak currently over the Pacific crashes ashore. There is
significant difference in how the guidance handles this situation
so the details are quite fuzzy. However, at some point a more
powerful trough should work into the Central US mid to late week
and bring back temperatures closer to normal and the next
meaningful potential for precip beyond isolated to widely
scattered diurnal convection.
MARINE...
Elevated onshore winds are expected to decrease today. Look for
mainly light to moderate south to southeast winds to persist for
the remainder of the week, the upcoming weekend, and through at
least the first half of next week. Generally expect to see seas
at 2 to 4 feet through the period. 42
StormOne wrote:Coming back to Houston this weekend. Looks like the weather will be Summer-like there. In contrast, we are currently under a Freeze Warning here
Yikes! This is another reason why I like living in Texas!
A.V. wrote:Honestly, I don't mind prolonged dryness from the October-April period; in fact, I wouldn't complain if Dec-Feb all were desert dry, with nothing but sunshine. As long as the summer/warm season is wet, the rest of the year doesn't matter.
While our local weather is very quiet, the Pacific NW and Northern California are preparing for Hurricane force winds and extremely heavy rainfall over the next 5 days. Perhaps a hint of a pattern change coming for our Region in the next 7 to 10 days.
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srainhoutx wrote:While our local weather is very quiet, the Pacific NW and Northern California are preparing for Hurricane force winds and extremely heavy rainfall over the next 5 days. Perhaps a hint of a pattern change coming for our Region in the next 7 to 10 days.
Will any of this system affect us or will it move across the northern states?
