September 2016 - Cool & Drier To End Month

[BlueJay]

The upcoming Labor Day weekend kind of unofficially says good bye to summer but it also leads to the heart of hurricane season for us. Stay tuned and be prepared!

[Skyguy]

The upcoming Labor Day weekend kind of unofficially says good bye to summer but it also leads to the heart of hurricane season for us. Stay tuned and be prepared!

What do you know about Invest 92L?

[BlueJay]

I don't know anything about Invest 92L, Skyguy. I will certainly yield to our professionals who daily update us on such concerns on a daily basis right here on this forum. Listen to them...

[TexasBreeze]

Looking like for now former 92l goes out to sea or an East coast threat, but way too early for certain. Remember the modeling fits of 99l/td9?
The next week of the new month looks like daily shower/storm chances and hot humid conditions here.

[srainhoutx]

Our sensible weather as we begin a new month suggests a weak stalling frontal boundary Thursday night into the weekend that may increase rain chances once again. The ensemble guidance suggests a deep Western Trough with an amplified Upper Ridge encompassing the Plains and the Eastern United States as we enjoy the Labor Day Holiday Weekend.

08302016 CPC Day 6 to 10 610temp_new.gif

08302016 CPC Day 6 to 10 610prcp_new.gif

08302016 Day 8+ Analogs 610analog_off.gif

There are some 'hints' that we may need to pay a bit of attention to the Tropics particularly the SW and Western Caribbean as some of the models are attempting to spin up a disturbance later next week with a favorable MJO Pulse and a Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave that may allow for greater rising air and increased instability across the Western Atlantic Basin. Meanwhile, we will monitor the threat to Florida and the SE United States from TD 9 as it moves out of the Gulf into the Atlantic Ocean during the Holiday Weekend.

08312016 twc_globe_mjo_vp200.png

08312016 twc_mjoCCKW_vp200.png

[worrybug]

Heads up!

[srainhoutx]

While the models serve a purpose, never trust them beyond 3 to 5 days.

[Skyguy]

While the models serve a purpose, never trust them beyond 3 to 5 days.

Hi, Bug. I have some advice for you:

[img]One[/img] model, particularly one that is biased toward intensification like the CMC/GEM at 240 hrs., is definitely not worth posting here. The forum considers this to be hype and fear-mongering, and that's not what we're here for, trust me. So, please, next time, don't post anything from the CMC, 'kay?

[Cromagnum]

All the same, it at least puts it on my radar (pardon the pun) to keep an eye on the gulf next week just in case some mischief gets going.

[redneckweather]

While the models serve a purpose, never trust them beyond 3 to 5 days.

Hi, Bug. I have some advice for you:

[img]One[/img] model, particularly one that is biased toward intensification like the CMC/GEM at 240 hrs., is definitely not worth posting here. The forum considers this to be hype and fear-mongering, and that's not what we're here for, trust me. So, please, next time, don't post anything from the CMC, 'kay?

Hey Skyguy, what Bug posted most certainly can be posted on here. If you don't like it then move on. It is weather related and does not break any forum rules. If you would like your own set of rules, start your own forum.

Thanks for the post Bug. Let's see if any of the other models start to latch on to that idea as time goes on. We have the rest of the month to see if anything wants to come towards us because after that, our chances of seeing a tropical system drop off significantly when October rolls around.

[worrybug]

While the models serve a purpose, never trust them beyond 3 to 5 days.

Hi, Bug. I have some advice for you:

model, particularly one that is biased toward intensification like the CMC/GEM at 240 hrs., is definitely not worth posting here. The forum considers this to be hype and fear-mongering, and that's not what we're here for, trust me. So, please, next time, don't post anything from the CMC, 'kay?

Hey Skyguy, what Bug posted most certainly can be posted on here. If you don't like it then move on. It is weather related and does not break any forum rules. If you would like your own set of rules, start your own forum.

Thanks for the post Bug. Let's see if any of the other models start to latch on to that idea as time goes on. We have the rest of the month to see if anything wants to come towards us because after that, our chances of seeing a tropical system drop off significantly when October rolls around.

Well, it's not quite as concerning to me as yesterday's run. Still, I wish I knew why the CMC is doing that.

[Skyguy]

Well, it's not quite as concerning to me as yesterday's run. Still, I wish I knew why the CMC is doing that.

As I mentioned before, the CMC has a bias toward developing any kind of system. It's the least trustworthy of all guidance models when it comes to tracking storms. I can tell you, however, that there seems to be an eastward trend in the model track. For Houston's sake, I hope that continues.

[Ptarmigan]

Well, it's not quite as concerning to me as yesterday's run. Still, I wish I knew why the CMC is doing that.

It is the Canadian model. I would be careful with it when it comes to tropical development. It is also 10 days from now, which can change easily.

That does not mean do not let your guard down. Be always vigilant.

[Ptarmigan]

August 2016. Most of the wettest August had a tropical system involved with the exception of 1900, 1974 (College Station), and 2007. Galveston and Hobby Airport did not have west August. August 1900 was one of the wettest for Houston. In September 1900, the Great Galveston Hurricane made landfall. August 1900 did not have any tropical system.

Houston
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=climate_iah_top10_aug

Hobby Airport
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=climate_hou_top10_aug

College Station
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=climate_cll_top10_aug

Galveston
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=climate_gls_top10_aug

[Skyguy]

August 2016. Most of the wettest August had a tropical system involved with the exception of 1900, 1974 (College Station), and 2007. Galveston and Hobby Airport did not have west August. August 1900 was one of the wettest for Houston. In September 1900, the Great Galveston Hurricane made landfall. August 1900 did not have any tropical system.

Houston
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=climate_iah_top10_aug

Hobby Airport
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=climate_hou_top10_aug

College Station
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=climate_cll_top10_aug

Galveston
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=climate_gls_top10_aug

1. That doesn't necessarily guarantee a storm landfall in Houston, Ptarmigan.

2. As I suspected. The CMC has begun an eastward shift. Take a look.

[worrybug]

Uh, should I start living up to my name?

[Texaspirate11]

Ptarmigan - thanks for the 1900 information. We are coming up to the storms 116th anniversary this week.

[Katdaddy]

A few thunderstorms this morning in Central TX and the NW GOM. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms during the Labor Day weekend mainly across the Upper TX Coast. TS Hermine is trucking across SE GA this morning.

[Ounce]

Uh, should I start living up to my name?

Didn't Srain post earlier to you to "...never trust them beyond 3 to 5 days."?

If that doesn't answer your question, then the answer is 'no.'

[StormOne]

Uh, should I start living up to my name?

While it may look intriguing, not every low in the water is going to become tropical.