Tracking the Tropics:

[jasons2k]

Yep, it's disorganized, as invests are. Still an open wave. You can see by looking at satellite and water vapor, there are multiple vortices in different locations. It will still take a couple of days for it to gel. One thing to remember is that weaker systems in this region tend to either continue W/SW of the models, or it just gets sheared apart and constantly reforms to the NE. They rarely behave and follow the models until they close off. With that ridge, I think it will continue more on the left side of the guidance.

[unome]

thank you, KHOU !

http://www.khou.com/weather/its-too-ear ... /307239758

[Andrew]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gaston, located about 1100 miles west of the Cabo Verde
Islands.

1. A broad area of low pressure centered about 100 miles north of
Puerto Rico is producing gale-force winds over water to the north
of the Lesser Antilles. However, satellite images indicate that
shower activity has become less organized than earlier today, and
the low continues to lack a well-defined center. Although upper-
level winds are only marginally conducive for development, this
system could still become a tropical cyclone during the next couple
of days. Environmental conditions have the potential to become more
conducive for development over the weekend when the system is near
the central or northwestern Bahamas.

Regardless of development, gusty winds, heavy rains, and possible
flash floods and mudslides are likely to occur over portions
of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the
southeastern and central Bahamas during the next couple of days.
Please consult products issued by your local meteorological offices
and High Seas Forecasts from the National Weather Service for
further details.

Interests in the northwestern Bahamas and Florida should monitor the
progress of this disturbance. Because of the large uncertainties
regarding this system's development and future track, it is too
early to speculate on what specific impacts might occur in the
northwestern Bahamas, Florida or beyond.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[Andrew]

Some convection looks like it may be forming over the northern LLC and the southern mid level rotation looks like it is starting to die down. Shear is still pretty high but lets see if convection can continue overnight.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[Skyguy]

One interesting thing to note is that some of the models (Euro,NAM,UKMET) show what appears to be a possible depression or weak tropical storm in the northwest gulf moving towards the Texas coastline around the same time future Hermine is in the gulf,which could be influencing the track of 99l.

Influencing it how. Saving us from it or drawing it towards us?

[Rip76]

Well, whatever becomes of 99L, it looks like It may well be a Florida storm.
If something even becomes of it. It looks a tad ragged right now

[Ptarmigan]

Forecast models flip flop with Invest 99L on where it goes and intensity. I say it needs to be watched.

[Andrew]

Based on satellite convection, the LLC looks to still be displayed to the northwest of the best convection but early morning visible should better highlight that over the next couple hours. Moving forward, the models are starting to show a little bit of a general consensus with a track over central/eastern gulf. Ensemble members are still rather split over this area but the operational runs are leaning that way. With that said I still think models are not handling the system particularly well and we still need to give it time before we can say with certain that a correct consensus has been confirmed. Recon and other aircraft data should hopefully shed some light on the system later today/tonight.

[unome]

Buoy Cams: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/buoycams.shtml

first images now available from PR cam with light: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41043


recon from tropicalatlantic.com , hosted on Jim's site by Chris to lighten traffic load - using CESIUM by Bing maps, no plugin required: http://hurricanecity.com/recon/recon.cg ... ing=cesium

NOAA's P3 currently flying non-tasked research mission out of MacDill AFB: https://noaahrd.wordpress.com/2016/08/2 ... into-al99/

[Andrew]

You can see how displaced the LLC is here.

[Rip76]

Well, whatever becomes of 99L, it looks like It may well be a Florida storm.
If something even becomes of it. It looks a tad ragged right now

Who knows, I could be wrong.

[srainhoutx]

Looks like the 6Z HWRF which went through a major upgrade this summer pick up well on the current state of 99L. I would keep an eye out for possible strengthening tomorrow into Saturday as the low center nears Andros Island and crosses the Florida Keys near Marathon heading WNW into the Central Gulf where it may strengthen rather rapidly. Overall this disturbance has performed about as expected. Remember conditions were expected to remain marginal at best until 99L passed Hispaniola and reached the Bahamas where conditions appear to be more conducive for tropical development as the Westerly wind shear relaxes and its able to begin wrapping up.

[stormlover]

I just feel that ridge isn't going to break down as easy that models suggest, it has been strong all summer!!! I still think we need to watch it closely, what are your thoughts srrain?

[srainhoutx]

I just feel that ridge isn't going to break down as easy that models suggest, it has been strong all summer!!! I still think we need to watch it closely, what are your thoughts srain?

I will be watching closely throughout the weekend, like everyone one else and bringing my supplies up a bit. The big power outage Tuesday evening across the Cypress/NW Harris County area made me realize I need to take care of a few things.

[redneckweather]

I just feel that ridge isn't going to break down as easy that models suggest, it has been strong all summer!!! I still think we need to watch it closely, what are your thoughts srrain?

I don't think it is the breaking down of the ridge but looks to be displaced farther off a bit to the NNE which is why the Euro and GFS have it shooting northward after scraping South Florida. I'm just not sold on that scenario even though that would be great. We do not want this one to get out over the open Gulf and come our way or towards Louisiana. I'm still water logged as is and a strong hurricane would topple trees by the thousands. NO THANKS.

[srainhoutx]

Water Vapor imagery suggest a vigorous Ridge across the Southern/SE United States.



The Super Ensembles just updated suggesting a rather stout Southern and SE sub tropical Ridge anchored across the Southern tier of the Nation.

[sambucol]

Srain, does this mean the models will trend back to the west again due to the stout ridge?

[stormlover]

gotta go more in depth srain we are rookies lol

[srainhoutx]

Srain, does this mean the models will trend back to the west again due to the stout ridge?

There was a slight shift West with the 12Z track guidance. I would rather wait until we have an actual storm declared and at least another 24 to 48 hours after TC genesis to get a better 'feel' of the synoptic pattern across the Nation. Scott mentioned yesterday that the various models may settle down with the wild run to run swings beginning around 00z tonight. I agree with his assessment.

[sambucol]

Thank you, Srain.