EPAC Discussion. TD 6 E Forms

[Hardcoreweather]

[srainhoutx]

Code: Select all

 UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                  ADT-Version 8.1.1                
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis ----- 
     Date :  29 MAY 2010    Time :   144500 UTC
      Lat :   13:05:29 N     Lon :   93:13:00 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                2.6 / 995.8mb/ 37.0kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T# 
                2.6     2.7     2.9

     Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP :  +0.0mb

 Center Temp : -67.9C    Cloud Region Temp : -68.2C

 Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION 

 Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION 

 Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC  
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC   

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
                   Weakening Flag : OFF   
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF   

[ticka1]

Its going no where fast. Going to bring a lot of rain/flooding to central america.

[srainhoutx]

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 292034
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012010
200 PM PDT SAT MAY 29 2010

ALTHOUGH VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE SOME
EROSION OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION...MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
BANDING FEATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO IMPROVE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT BASED ON A
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AND
THE TIGHTER BANDING FEATURES NOTED IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/06 KT...WHICH MAY BE A LITTLE
SLOW. AGATHA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING IN A NORTHEASTWARD OR
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT LIES
ALONG 12N LATITUDE. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE
GUATEMALAN COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER LANDFALL...THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TO DECOUPLE FROM THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATION...WITH THE LATTER CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OR THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...TVCN.

THERE IS STILL SOME ROOM FOR SLIGHT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE
AGATHA MAKES LANDFALL...BUT THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IS QUICKLY
CLOSING NOW DUE TO THE FASTER FORWARD SPEED. AFTER LANDFALL...RAPID
WEAKENING OF THE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD OCCUR. HOWEVER...VERY MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF AGATHA WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT EVEN AFTER THE SYSTEM CEASES TO
EXIST AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

DUE TO THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED AND INTERACTION WITH HIGH TERRAIN...
THE MAIN IMPACT FROM AGATHA WILL BE EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES
OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR...AND AS FAR
INLAND AS HONDURAS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/2100Z 13.9N 92.4W 40 KT
12HR VT 30/0600Z 14.1N 91.9W 45 KT
24HR VT 30/1800Z 14.5N 91.2W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 31/0600Z 14.9N 90.8W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
48HR VT 31/1800Z 15.2N 90.8W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
72HR VT 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/KIMBERLAIN

[Paul]

already on shore and breaking up as we speak....Agatha is dead Jim....

as a side note that 50knot westerlies in the GOM is impressive....Just about 6 more weeks before the action really starts, IMO

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

[Hardcoreweather]

[srainhoutx]

000
WTPZ61 KNHC 292234
TCUEP1
TROPICAL STORM AGATHA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012010
340 PM PDT SAT MAY 29 2010

...CENTER OF AGATHA CROSSING THE COAST NEAR THE GUATEMALA/MEXICO
BORDER...

AT 340 PM PDT...2240 UTC...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES
INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF AGATHA IS CROSSING THE COAST ALONG THE
BORDER OF MEXICO AND GUATEMALA...AND IS NOW LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST
OF TAPACHULA MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF 340 PM PDT INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 92.2W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM...SE OF TAPACHULA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/CANGIALOSI

[Andrew]

Interesting to watch it get itself together as time went on:

[srainhoutx]

[Paul]

last hurrah looks better than it did over the EPAC...nice CDO....wont last long IMO....

the EURO destroys it upon fully inland. 12z CMC seems to be back to its old ways...

[Hardcoreweather]

[srainhoutx]

WTPZ41 KNHC 300838
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012010
200 AM PDT SUN MAY 30 2010

AGATHA HAS MOVED INTO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN CENTRAL AMERICA WHICH
HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON THE CYCLONE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS DISSIPATED...THEREFORE THIS WILL
BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A LARGE AREA OVER CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER MUCH OF GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR...WESTERN HONDURAS...AND
PORTIONS OF BELIZE. ALTHOUGH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS
DISSIPATED...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH-FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THESE AREAS DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. AS INDICATED IN THE NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY...MAXIMUM
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD REACH 30
INCHES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0900Z 15.6N 91.7W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12HR VT 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Hardcoreweather]

[Hardcoreweather]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-ft.html

[srainhoutx]

New Invest for the EPAC...

NHC_ATCF
invest_ep912010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201006010003
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

EP, 91, 2010060100, , BEST, 0, 96N, 1170W, 20, 1010, DB,

[srainhoutx]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep922010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201006141351
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 92, 2010, DB, O, 2010061412, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP922010
EP, 92, 2010061412, , BEST, 0, 140N, 1048W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUN 14 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO REMAIN
POORLY ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW IS
POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. A BROAD AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC IS ALSO POORLY ORGANIZED. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT
DRIFTS NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH

[srainhoutx]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 141745
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUN 14 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE
BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS
WEST- NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES IS MOVING LITTLE.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT BEGINS TO DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN

[srainhoutx]

[srainhoutx]

Our newest Invest for the EPAC 93E...

[srainhoutx]

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED JUN 16 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT
DRIFTS GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF MEXICO FROM THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WEST TO ACAPULCO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

2. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM FROM THIS
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KIMBERLAIN