Dear pro mets:
These two items from the HGX AFD are a little beyond my personal comprehension.
719
FXUS64 KHGX 130025
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
725 PM CDT Fri Aug 12 2016
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions to continue overnight with a possibility of some
patchy MVFR ceilings around sunrise tomorrow morning. Winds
overnight will be southerly at 5 to 10 knots.
Showers and thunderstorms will gradually increase in coverage
during the day on Saturday. Isolated showers late Saturday morning
will become scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms by
late afternoon.
The heaviest precipitation will move in to SETX
airspace from the east with conditions worsening after 21Z. I
addressed the afternoon precipitation with a VCTS in this TAF
package, however I am considering a PROB30 after 21Z tomorrow for
the 06Z TAF package. Keehn/44
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM CDT Fri Aug 12 2016/
DISCUSSION...
A heat advisory remains in effect for all of SE TX until 7 PM this
afternoon. The forecast gets tricky heading into tomorrow as a
front begins its approach from the northwest and a disturbance
currently hammering Louisiana begins to shift westward. Showers
and thunderstorms should start to get going during the day
Saturday, but the main event should occur in the Saturday night
through Sunday night time frame. WPC currently has much of SE TX in
a slight risk for excessive rainfall both Saturday and Sunday.
Current thinking is for around 3 to 5 inches of QPF through early
Monday, primarily over the northern and eastern areas. However,
isolated totals of up to 10 inches cannot be ruled out. We have
been discussing the possibility of a Flash Flood Watch for
Saturday Night through Sunday Night but have decided to hold off
for now.
Note I have put the statements I don't understand in bold.
1. What do they mean by "conditions worsening?" What kind of conditions are they looking for? TC-like?
2. Notice the forecaster identified the main area of concern as the
northern and eastern areas
. I live in southwest Houston, south of I-10. Is my risk of severe weather less than those locations just mentioned.
Get back with me as soon as you can.