August 2016: Rain Chances Continue.

[DoctorMu]

the 12Z GFS has trended the way of the 00Z ECMWF suggesting a somewhat complicated forecast challenge as the mid/upper level remnants of Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Javier turn right or toward the Southern Rockies/Southern Plains with an approach trough and the area of unsettled weather over the Northern/NE Gulf meander Westbound.

A disturbance in The Force.

[DoctorMu]

[Cromagnum]

Any chance of breaking this heat anytime soon? It is beyond miserable outside.

[Weatherdad]

What does that mean for the Destin FL area August 13-19?? 240000 frequent stay points are on the line here since its non refundable

[srainhoutx]

Welcome weatherdad. We will continue monitoring the sensible weather forecast for all of the Gulf Coast throughout the coming workweek. Stay tuned!

[Weatherdad]

Thank you, i have actually followed this forum for many year's as a lurker for great insight on the weather. We are pretty nervious with current long range forcast for Destin area so i thought after all these years i would actually post looking for some specific help. Ill be watching this week

[Skyguy]

Dear forum:

I am a little worried about that low in the NE Gulf. It was my understanding that it was not going to affect SE Texas in any way. Now, it appears that it IS wandering this direction. Though an amateur met by hobby, I am unable to get anymore opinions and data as regards this system. Thus, I have the following questions:

1. Should I count on a tropical threat to SE Texas this coming weekend?

2. Why is this disturbance now seen as a threat to SE Texas?

3. Will this be anything like the April 18 2016 flood event, with one big difference: Higher winds?

Am looking forward to a response. Good evening, everybody.

[StormOne]

Dear forum:3. Will this be anything like the April 18 2016 flood event, with one big difference: Higher winds?

I'm not pro like some of the people on here, but I can safely say no. While we may get an uptick in moisture, we should not be directly impacted by this system. The areas that should be more worried is the central Gulf Coast, around NW Florida/AL/MS.

[Skyguy]

Dear forum:3. Will this be anything like the April 18 2016 flood event, with one big difference: Higher winds?

I'm not pro like some of the people on here, but I can safely say no. While we may get an uptick in moisture, we should not be directly impacted by this system. The areas that should be more worried is the central Gulf Coast, around NW Florida/AL/MS.

If so, then what do our local mets mean by this:

Extended progs continuing to indicate a change in the pattern by
next weekend...but a slightly different one than the one offered
by yesterday`s runs. Instead of a deepening long-wave upper trof
from the west...models are now going with a combination of an
upper trof and an associated frontal boundary from the NNW and
the westward movement of that system that has been lingering in
over the far NERN Gulf. At any rate, trend appears to be going
toward wet by the weekend so no real argument with the CHC POPS
already in the grids for this timeframe. 41

Am I to understand, then, that they do not project a direct hit on SE Texas from this system, but rather the upswing in moisture you mentioned?

[StormOne]

Am I to understand, then, that they do not project a direct hit on SE Texas from this system, but rather the upswing in moisture you mentioned?

Indeed. While we change to a wet pattern next weekend, it will not be a direct hit from this system, but rather the cold front coming in from the NNW taking advantage of the tropical moisture that will be in place. Also, that system to our East is likely not going to develop. The only direct impacts will be flooding for the Florida Panhandle.

[Skyguy]

Am I to understand, then, that they do not project a direct hit on SE Texas from this system, but rather the upswing in moisture you mentioned?

Indeed. While we change to a wet pattern next weekend, it will not be a direct hit from this system, but rather the cold front coming in from the NNW taking advantage of the tropical moisture that will be in place. Also, that system to our East is likely not going to develop. The only direct impacts will be flooding for the Florida Panhandle.

Good to know: Now, for the benefit of a storm-spotter acquaintance of mine: Any severe T-storm risk from this NNW cold front?

[StormOne]

Am I to understand, then, that they do not project a direct hit on SE Texas from this system, but rather the upswing in moisture you mentioned?

Indeed. While we change to a wet pattern next weekend, it will not be a direct hit from this system, but rather the cold front coming in from the NNW taking advantage of the tropical moisture that will be in place. Also, that system to our East is likely not going to develop. The only direct impacts will be flooding for the Florida Panhandle.

Good to know: Now, for the benefit of a storm-spotter acquaintance of mine: Any severe T-storm risk from this NNW cold front?

Not seeing much of a severe weather threat. Except for the bizarre 2014 monsoonal Summer, July-August is normally a pretty dead severe weather season here anyway.

[DoctorMu]

Outflow boundary headed from far east TX towards Houston. May get some action in Harris Co. tomorrow.



DISCUSSION...
A line of thunderstorms extending from near Kilgore to
Natchitoches continues to push southward this evening, with
additional development occurring farther east along an associated
outflow boundary. For the evening forecast update, added a
mention of isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
northeastern and eastern counties as this line continues to move
towards the coast. May see some gusty winds (20-30 MPH) with
stronger cells if they are able to maintain themselves into the
northeastern counties.

The next update to the ongoing forecast tonight was to issue a
heat advisory for all of Southeast Texas from 1-7 PM CDT on
Monday. Elevated heat index values in the 108 to 110 degree range
were observed behind the sea breeze boundary along the coast today
and similar conditions are expected tomorrow. While heat advisory
criteria for heat index values may not be reached over the
northern counties, forecast temperatures will still be very hot
(actual temperatures approaching 100-102 degrees... close to heat
advisory criteria of 103 degrees). Will need to keep an eye on
where the outflow from the storms over Louisiana reaches on
Tuesday however, as this may serve as a focusing mechanism for
storms during the day on Tuesday (keeping temperatures and heat
index values cooler). The most likely areas to be impacted by
this appears to be the eastern counties (Polk/ San Jacinto/
Liberty/ Chambers), but with convective initiation looking to
occur mid to late afternoon anything that develops looks to offer
a respite from the heat... as opposed to preventing it from
occurring.

Otherwise, similar to the past few mornings may see some patchy
fog develop outside of the Houston metro with overnight lows in
the mid 70s to mid 80s.

[Skyguy]

Outflow boundary headed from far east TX towards Houston. May get some action in Harris Co. tomorrow.



DISCUSSION...
A line of thunderstorms extending from near Kilgore to
Natchitoches continues to push southward this evening, with
additional development occurring farther east along an associated
outflow boundary. For the evening forecast update, added a
mention of isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
northeastern and eastern counties as this line continues to move
towards the coast. May see some gusty winds (20-30 MPH) with
stronger cells if they are able to maintain themselves into the
northeastern counties.

The next update to the ongoing forecast tonight was to issue a
heat advisory for all of Southeast Texas from 1-7 PM CDT on
Monday. Elevated heat index values in the 108 to 110 degree range
were observed behind the sea breeze boundary along the coast today
and similar conditions are expected tomorrow. While heat advisory
criteria for heat index values may not be reached over the
northern counties, forecast temperatures will still be very hot
(actual temperatures approaching 100-102 degrees... close to heat
advisory criteria of 103 degrees). Will need to keep an eye on
where the outflow from the storms over Louisiana reaches on
Tuesday however, as this may serve as a focusing mechanism for
storms during the day on Tuesday (keeping temperatures and heat
index values cooler). The most likely areas to be impacted by
this appears to be the eastern counties (Polk/ San Jacinto/
Liberty/ Chambers), but with convective initiation looking to
occur mid to late afternoon anything that develops looks to offer
a respite from the heat... as opposed to preventing it from
occurring.

Otherwise, similar to the past few mornings may see some patchy
fog develop outside of the Houston metro with overnight lows in
the mid 70s to mid 80s.

Well, I suppose there may be some concerns Monday afternoon. The latest RAP initiates shra/tsra between 19-21z along the remnants of tonight`s outflow boundary and also along the sea breeze. This solution is supported by the Hi-Res ARW. (I saw those, by the way) But the NAM and GFS (at least) remain dry for Monday and so forecasters are leaning toward the drier solutions for now.

Personally, though, I'm not sure I agree with them.

[srainhoutx]

To answer some questioned posed last night, I see no signs of tropical development at this time associated with the trough of low pressure currently analyzed from the Florida Panhandle SW into the Central Gulf. There is no sign of a closed circulation what so ever over the water. There may be a very weak low near Tallahassee, but that feature is not particularly strong or deep. If, and it is a big IF...something were to attempt to develop it would take a while (several days). The sensible weather forecast still suggests a complicated combination of several features...a trough in the Pacific NW developing a weak cold front that may approach N/Central Texas this weekend, some potential mid/upper level moisture from TS Javier getting entrained along the very weak and stalling front and that slug of moisture to our East along the NE and Northern Gulf Coast.

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon Update Climate Prediction Center Day 6 to 10 Outlook as well as the Day 8+ Analogs do suggest a pattern change is in the works. We will just need to get through the next few days before we begin to see the effects of the pattern change.

[A.V.]

Most of Texas is a climate rip-off, and I'd hate for that circumstance to extend east into Southeast Texas, which provides one of the few good climates in the state. But, if this August ends up hotter/drier than normal, and the trend continues in future years, then it isn't going to be good.

Texas is a climate rip off because temps are way more extreme than they should be given the location; Texas is way too far south to be getting as cold as it does in large areas of the state, and is way too close to the Gulf to be seeing the droughts it does (again, in large portions of the state). How in the world can places like Corpus and Brownsville be so dry, if they are RIGHT next to the Gulf of Mexico; those areas are such rip-off climates, precipitation wise.

To be fair, though, the entire North America outside of its tropics is just one big rip-off. Eastern North America is way too variable during winter, Western North America is much too prone to RRR and droughts.

[Andrew]

Most of Texas is a climate rip-off, and I'd hate for that circumstance to extend east into Southeast Texas, which provides one of the few good climates in the state. But, if this August ends of hotter/drier than normal, and the trend continues in future years, then it isn't going to be good.

Texas is a climate rip off because temps are way more extreme than they should be given the location; Texas is way too far south to be getting as cold as it does in large areas of the state, and is way too close to the Gulf to be seeing the droughts it does (again, in large portions of the state). How in the world can places like Corpus and Brownsville be so dry, if they are RIGHT next to the Gulf of Mexico; those areas are such rip-off climates, precipitation wise.

To be fair, though, the entire North America outside of its tropics is just one big rip-off. Eastern North America is way too variable during winter, Western North America is much too prone to RRR and droughts.

The location of Texas and Southeast Texas in general are very unique. Most locations around the world on the same latitude are usually drought prone areas. We are fortunate to have the Gulf of Mexico so close to us or our climate would be very arid as a result. And if I remember correctly, didn't we receive 100+ year floods multiple times just a couple months ago? You have to remember that North America is one of the most progressive weather locations in the world. The amount of long-waves, severe weather, and different weather we receive in general is rather unique. Finally, you can easily have locations along bodies of water that are desert regions.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Namib_Desert

[Ptarmigan]

Most of Texas is a climate rip-off, and I'd hate for that circumstance to extend east into Southeast Texas, which provides one of the few good climates in the state. But, if this August ends of hotter/drier than normal, and the trend continues in future years, then it isn't going to be good.

Texas is a climate rip off because temps are way more extreme than they should be given the location; Texas is way too far south to be getting as cold as it does in large areas of the state, and is way too close to the Gulf to be seeing the droughts it does (again, in large portions of the state). How in the world can places like Corpus and Brownsville be so dry, if they are RIGHT next to the Gulf of Mexico; those areas are such rip-off climates, precipitation wise.

To be fair, though, the entire North America outside of its tropics is just one big rip-off. Eastern North America is way too variable during winter, Western North America is much too prone to RRR and droughts.

You can see freezes and snow as far south as Hong Kong as it is in a tropical latitude. The Asian landmass is more favorable for cold air as there is Siberia. Land is more favorable for cold and hot.

Houston is in the same latitude where you have deserts, like Sahara, Sonoran, Atacama, and Namib. The reason Houston is wet is because of the warm Gulf of Mexico. The Atacama and Namib Desert are dry despite being next to ocean because of the cooler water. The Humboldt Current for Atacama and Benguela Current for Namib Desert. Those cold currents are one of the reason why Southeast Pacific and South Atlantic are devoid of tropical cyclones. There is also less land than in the Northern Hemisphere. This gives way to persistent westerlies better known as Roaring Forties. The ocean is very rough when you get closer to Antarctica.

[A.V.]

The location of Texas and Southeast Texas in general are very unique. Most locations around the world on the same latitude are usually drought prone areas. We are fortunate to have the Gulf of Mexico so close to us or our climate would be very arid as a result. And if I remember correctly, didn't we receive 100+ year floods multiple times just a couple months ago? You have to remember that North America is one of the most progressive weather locations in the world. The amount of long-waves, severe weather, and different weather we receive in general is rather unique. Finally, you can easily have locations along bodies of water that are desert regions.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Namib_Desert

It is just a rip off to be so dry when right next to water (especially warm water). I understand cooler water drying out climate in low latitudes (Namibia, Atacama, Baja California), but the Gulf is way too warm, and, thus, provides way too much rising moisture and instability for places like Corpus to be so dry. And if this ridge keeps up, this climate failure will reach Houston too. The 2011 drought in Texas should not have happened with the Gulf of Mexico in place; neither should these ridges.

Also, winters have to be warmer more often. This past winter, Houston didn't freeze at Hobby; that type of winter should be happening all the time, all over the Southern US. But, North America's rotten geography doesn't allow this.