2016 Hurricane Outlook/Preparedness Information

[Ptarmigan]

Latest seasonal ECMWF Outlook suggests 11 named Tropical Storms of which 9,may become Hurricanes. The greatest threat for tropical development July through November appears to be across the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf. Higher pressures across the Main Development Region suggest we will need to monitor our backyard versus those long tracking Cape Verde Hurricanes.

Most hurricanes that hit Texas form in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Some are even large like 1886 Indianola, 1941 September, and Carla. They were not Cape Verde Hurricanes.

[brooksgarner]

I started a thread over in the hurricane central part of the board, for that [distant] possibility of a future system next week in the Gulf.

[srainhoutx]

The Long Range Seasonal ECMWF continues to advertise generally lower pressures across the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. The Main Development Region of the Central Atlantic suggests higher pressures meaning less in the way of tropical development across the MDR or less Cape Verde Storms. The Precipitation Outlooks for August/September/October also indicate a favorable pattern with rising air that assists in tropical thunderstorm development particularly across the NW Caribbean and the Gulf. The ENSO Plumes also suggest a weak to potential Moderate La Nino during peak Hurricane Season in our part of the World.

[srainhoutx]

Dr. Phil Klotzbach and the CSU Team have issued their July 1, 2016 Seasonal Outlook and they are suggesting a near normal Tropical Season for 2016 with 15 Named Storms/6 Hurricanes and 2 Major Hurricanes.