June Weather Discussion

[Ptarmigan]

Noticing the rain on radar out in Mexico - will any of those areas head towards texas tonight or tomorrow?

I wonder about that too. I know it has happened before.

[Paul]

you can see the flare up in NTX tonight....nothing down here...maybe some iso stuff tomorrow...

[txflagwaver]

Morning email from Jeff Lindner:

Another incredible core rain event with our tropical low. Hard hit locations overnight were between Waco and Tyler were up to 15 inches fell just ENE of Waco. Widespread 4-8 inches fell in the region bounded by Waco, Tyler, and College Station since yesterday. Widespread flooding is in progress with travel extremely difficult between Houston and Dallas and Austin and Dallas.

Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for our northern counties until this evening after the excessive rainfall yesterday and the potential for additional rainfall today. Creeks and streams are near or above flood stage at several locations around College Station and any additional rainfall will quickly result in flooding.

Slow moving “tropical low” continues to produce excessive rainfall near and to the east of its center now located between Bryan and Tyler. Feed of very moist air continues to flow northward off the Gulf of Mexico into this system with overnight convergence near the center leading to excessive rainfall in slow to nearly stationary convection. This low will finally get a better kick and be pushed out of the state on Friday as a trough digs into the western US. For today however, heating should begin to generate scattered thunderstorms over mainly the northern half of SE TX. Flash Flood guidance in the watch area is running between 1.0-1.5 inches and given the possible rainfall rates this is easily of being exceeded…hence the watch. Feel most area will see scattered activity with more concentrated stuff along and north of Hwy 105 closer to the low circulation and cold pool generation building south out of N TX. One other concern is the favorable inflow from the SSW of PWS in excess of 2.0-2.25 inches. Radar this morning has shown activity attempting to form into lines over Polk and San Jacinto counties with low level flow and mean steering flow favorable for cell training.

With the tropical low moving out of the state Friday mid level ridging will build in from the east allowing a return to a more typical summer pattern of isolated afternoon seabreeze storms under hot high temperatures. Wet grounds and temperatures in eh mid 90’s will push heat index values well into the 100’s over the weekend.

Hydro:

Recent rains causing significant rises on area rivers. Ongoing rains over NC TX this morning will likely generate flood waves on the middle Brazos and middle Navasota River and possibly the middle Trinity….will have to see how the hydrology plays out as to if flood stages are reaches at any points on these rivers. With 10-12 inches over parts of the Navasota River flooding seems like a good bet.

Guadalupe River:

Major to severe flash flood occurred yesterday along the upper portion of the river from New Braunsfels to below Seguin. Large flood wave is moving downstream this morning with a flood warnings issues for the entre river to the Gulf of Mexico.

At Gonzales:

Current Stage: 26.5 ft

Flood Stage: 31.0 ft

Forecast: River is in a rapid rise and will reach 35.0-36.0 feet tonight. Moderate flooding will be in progress at levels at or above 37 ft.

At Victoria:

Current Stage: 8.5 ft

Flood Stage: 21.0ft

Forecast: River will begin a rapid rise Friday and crest near 28.0 ft late this weekend. At 27.0 ft moderate low land flooding inundates low approaches to the zoo. Livestock and crops in the floodplain between Cuero and Tivoli are cut-off.

[wxdata]

I see our upper low is causing more mischief in east Texas. Houston county is under a tornado warning until noon.

[sleetstorm]

What does Flag Days' weather look like, a high in the mid-upper ninties with a heat index in the one hundred five-one hundred ten ºF range?

[kayci]

Galveston County / Kemah for the rest of the day/evening??? Can yall look into your crystal ball and see if there's gonna be any precip? I looked at the radars and didn't see anything headed this way... or is there?
Please advise,
thx,
K

[srainhoutx]

I suspect nothing but a few popcorn showers for the rest of today. It would appear that beyond today, the seabreeze will be our only hope for rain for the next several days. Heat index should be rather high as well.

[kayci]

Exactly what I was hoping, thank you. Now on to 'rock the dock'!

[Ptarmigan]

you can see the flare up in NTX tonight....nothing down here...maybe some iso stuff tomorrow...

Up to 15 inches of rain fell. Typical core rain event right there.

I notice Del Rio could get some rain tonight from another low pressure system.
http://www.srh.weather.gov/graphicast.php?site=ewx&gc=2

[Portastorm]

Just saw a news blurb that at least six persons in Arkansas have died as a result of flash flooding from this mid/upper low system. I know that at least one person died in south central Texas.

Amazing how devastating these systems can be isn't it?

[srainhoutx]

Report from Austin/San Antonio NWS... (pdf file with pictures)...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/ewx/wxev ... 0flood.pdf

[ticka1]

Just saw a news blurb that at least six persons in Arkansas have died as a result of flash flooding from this mid/upper low system. I know that at least one person died in south central Texas.

Amazing how devastating these systems can be isn't it?

Its now 12 people have died from the flash floods in Arkansas. Most of them were from a campground. So sad. God Bless those families.

[kayci]

Report from Austin/San Antonio NWS... (pdf file with pictures)...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/ewx/wxev ... 0flood.pdf

some of my favorite camping spots....

[Poltracker]

Sadly it is up to 20 with 40+ still unaccounted for. Kayci, this is my favorite area too. I am an avid rockhound and usually stay around Mt Ida but sometimes stop of at Caddo Mills for a conoe trip or to mosey around and see what I can find in the river along those stretches. I do not understand why the national parks cannot install flood alarms like they did in New Braunsfel. All those folks were caught sleeping and I heard that the water rose at a rate of 8+ ft/hr. They were in deep trouble before they even realized what was happening. God bless their families.

[kayci]

Sadly it is up to 20 with 40+ still unaccounted for. Kayci, this is my favorite area too. I am an avid rockhound and usually stay around Mt Ida but sometimes stop of at Caddo Mills for a conoe trip or to mosey around and see what I can find in the river along those stretches. I do not understand why the national parks cannot install flood alarms like they did in New Braunsfel. All those folks were caught sleeping and I heard that the water rose at a rate of 8+ ft/hr. They were in deep trouble before they even realized what was happening. God bless their families.

Oh my goodness.. how tragic. I spent 4 years in Hays County, camping all over the San Marcos, New Braunfels, Austin areas. Back then I saw ALOT of dried river beds, but yet alot of flooded rivers too. We went from one extreme to another when I lived there. even an ice storm. I pray for them.

[Kludge]

Wow.

You could be in Siberia today and tell what kind of weather day Houston is having, just by the lack of activity on this board. Pretty nominal and unremarkable.

<sound of crickets chriping>

[texaskaz]

Anything about Alex forming?

[srainhoutx]

Anything about Alex forming?

Head over to Hurricane Central for all the latest Tropical Discussions and Updates...

http://forums.khou.com/viewforum.php?f=4

[Poltracker]

Could that storm coming in from Mexico get here?

[sleetstorm]

Happy Flag Day everyone! Today, we remember the flag's birthday back in 1777.

Hey ticka 1, I know that this is off topic, but have you ever had any problems with leaf miners? Very small yellow catepillars that tunnel between the top and middle layer of leaves of certain types of plants and eat the food making part of leaves.