Long Range Model Thread.

[don]

For what its worth the 0z GFS brings it back

[srainhoutx]

With no less than 5 Tropical Waves being analyzed in the Atlantic this morning, there is little doubt that things appear to be getting a bit more active. The first robust wave is expected to pass through the Eastern Caribbean on Friday/Saturday. Perhaps this is what the GFS is sniffing out for the BoC/ Western GOM early next week.

[srainhoutx]

Sort surprised no one mentioned the EC concerning development in the Central Atlantic.

[wxman57]

Here's a GFS plot of the 200mb wind isotachs valid at 144hrs when that disturbance is indicated to be nearing the Caribbean. Westerly winds about 15-25 kts aloft would impart about 20-30 kts of shear across at least the northern part of the disturbance. Still a bit early for that area. Of course, the upper-level wind forecast could be wrong. Probably not, though, given the current pattern.

[srainhoutx]

Anyone notice what the EC is spinning up in the EPAC near the MX Coast in about 120 hours or so?

[Paul]

that wave does have some rotation to it half way across the pond...not to much in the way of convection though...I also think its to early but the lid will soon come off mid- July I am afraid....

[Paul]

12z pretty quiet out 384hr.....wont be long though when we will start to see some action in the long range GFS. thats one thing you can count on....

[Ptarmigan]

I think this season will be active, but could be a late bloomer. Some of the most active seasons were late bloomers, like 1950, 1961, 1969, 1998, and 2004.

[wxman57]

As I've said, only one "model" can compete with the Canadian as far as developing any stray shower in the tropics - JB.

[Paul]

CMC and NOGAPS joining the weal TS moving into the carib next week. GFS not on board as far as I have seen. It does look its getting more organized. Some nice rotation....bears watching...

[Ptarmigan]

Looks like the tropical wave in the Atlantic has become Invest 92L.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad



SHIP intensity forecast.

Code: Select all

     *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *      GOES DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      OHC  DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      INVEST  AL922010  06/12/10  18 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    20    21    24    28    33    44    55    67    73    75    75    73    73
V (KT) LAND       20    21    24    28    33    44    55    67    73    75    75    73    73
V (KT) LGE mod    20    21    22    24    26    32    38    44    49    52    54    54    54

SHEAR (KT)        10     5     4     7    10    12    13    11    15    13    14    14     6
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     0     1     0     1    -1    -2    -2    -8    -6    -7    -7    -7    -4
SHEAR DIR         60   101    76    51    94   109   135   159   166   207   207   261   259
SST (C)         28.6  28.5  28.3  28.1  28.0  27.8  27.8  28.0  28.5  28.7  28.8  29.0  29.2
POT. INT. (KT)   146   145   142   139   138   135   135   138   145   148   150   153   156
ADJ. POT. INT.   153   156   151   146   144   139   138   142   150   154   154   156   158
200 MB T (C)   -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -52.2 -53.4 -52.6 -53.5 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -53.1
TH_E DEV (C)       7     7     7     7     7     7     8     8     9     9    10     9    10
700-500 MB RH     78    78    78    73    76    74    72    71    67    64    62    60    55
GFS VTEX (KT)      0  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    29    32    27    21    18    13    13    -3   -18   -38   -31   -18     4
200 MB DIV        79    96    88   109   145   146   155   110    65    44    33    13     7
LAND (KM)       1368  1345  1279  1242  1222  1240  1221  1033   870   737   653   632   460
LAT (DEG N)      6.3   6.6   6.8   7.2   7.5   8.2   8.9   9.5  10.1  10.7  11.2  11.5  11.8
LONG(DEG W)     31.0  32.4  33.8  35.1  36.4  38.8  41.2  43.6  46.3  49.1  51.9  54.4  56.9
STM SPEED (KT)    11    14    14    13    13    12    12    13    14    14    13    12    12
HEAT CONTENT      53    50    39    39    40    38    37    45    65    71    80    85    99

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/  9      CX,CY:  -8/  1
  T-12 MAX WIND:  20            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  619  (MEAN=624)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  18.6 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  58.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  11.  12.  13.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.  -1.  -1.   0.   5.  13.  21.  27.  33.  37.  40.  42.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   4.   5.   6.   7.   6.   6.   4.   3.   2.   3.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   4.   3.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   1.   2.   3.   5.   6.   6.   6.   5.   3.   0.  -1.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -7.  -7.  -8.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   2.   3.   6.   9.  11.  13.  12.  11.  10.   8.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   1.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.  -1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.   0.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -2.  -2.  -1.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           1.   4.   8.  13.  24.  35.  47.  53.  55.  55.  53.  53.

   ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922010     INVEST 06/12/10  18 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   7.3 Range: 26.2 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  1.0
D200 (10**7s-1)       : 103.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  1.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 129.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  0.7
850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  84.0 Range: 56.0 to  85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  0.6
% area w/pixels <-30 C:  49.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  18.6 Range: 30.6 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.7
Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  44.2 Range:  0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.0

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    58% is   4.6 times the sample mean(12.6%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    38% is   4.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    21% is   4.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=     9% is   2.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%)

** PROBABILITY OF SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION AL922010     INVEST 06/12/2010  00 UTC **
TIME        0-12h   0-24h   0-36h   0-48h       EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT (PrSEFoNe-model)
CLIMO (%)     0       0       0       0    <--- PROBABILITY BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB  (%)     0       0       0       0    <--- FULL MODEL RAN NORMALLY

[Katdaddy]

Off to the races.....Invest 92L. Very early for a Cape Verde Invest.

[ticka1]

We going to start a new thread for 92L or just waiti until if it ever makes TD status?

[Paul]

Yes we are Kat and this looks better and better...here is another close up...

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MS ... /index.htm


Low shear ahead according to PTs chart....warm ssts...low rider ala Dean, Felix??

[Paul]

someone start a new thread...

[ticka1]

Thank HCW....for the new thread.

[srainhoutx]

Interesting to see almost all guidance suggesting lowering pressures across the Caribbean and GOM in the coming days. Along with a somewhat weak MJO pulse and or Walker Cell across the Pacific/Central America region, perhaps we are entering a bit more active period. We shall see.

[Paul]

http://www.icess.ucsb.edu/asr/MJO_current_run.htm

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip ... thly.shtml


I agree Steve...nice catch...weak but there...

[Paul]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_150l.gif


talk about lower pressures in the catib at day 7 sheesh..... look at the ITCZ...wave train anyone in June.....got to be kidding me...

[Paul]

Nogaps.


92L is the rain near the Yucatan, the depression moving into Central America and the depression hitting Jamaica, not sure how it gets those.

got to be some sort of feedback issue given a EPAC has a system very close to remants of 92L....the 12z CMC showing something similar.